Gerber: History says lower your expectations for this Panthers draft class

By Clark Gerber, WRAL Sports Contributor

The NFL Draft is popular because it sells hope to every fan base.

Maybe that quarterback you traded up for in the 1st round is going to be the next Patrick Mahomes. Maybe that obscure 7th round tight end turns into Shannon Sharpe. Or maybe Mr. Irrelevant quickly rises up the depth chart and leads your team to the Super Bowl like Brock Purdy.

Maybe.

Right now, downtrodden Panthers fans are clinging to the unknown.

And to any "Draft Grades" column that might give them an A+ (there's always at least one out there).

They're hoping this 2024 draft class can produce six major contributors like the 2017 Saints, or better yet, completely turn things around and spark a Super Bowl run like the 2012 Seahawks.

It is possible... but people win the lottery sometimes too.

The cold hard truth, I'm sorry to say, is that at least half of this Carolina draft class will probably never win a starting job. And even fewer will stick around past their rookie contract.

The data

I went back and studied the last 10 Panthers draft classes dating back to 2014.

Out of 67 total picks in that time frame, I would classify only 19 of them as "hits". That is, they contributed on the field in a meaningful way.

Granted, I did mark several players as "incomplete" because it's too soon to tell, but I also included guys like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess in the "hit" group. I'm being generous here.

Out of those 67 Panther picks, do you know how many made it to a second contract?

Ten.

And three of those barely count -- Daryl Williams signed only a one-year extension because of injury, while Marquis Haynes and Ian Thomas re-signed as role players, not full-time starters.

That leaves Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Shaq Thompson, Derrick Brown, Taylor Moton, Donte Jackson and Trai Turner as what most people would call true "success" stories in the draft.

And let's not forget that four of those players got traded away shortly after their extensions kicked in.

That's pretty bleak.

The cross-check

Now, I know what you're thinking.

"Duh. No kidding the Panthers had a low hit rate on draft picks and re-signings. They're not a good team."

Yes, I had the same thought. So to check our work, let's examine another NFL team -- the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs made 71 draft picks from 2014 to 2023. 25 of them were hits.

That is a better success rate than the Panthers (35.2% vs. 28.4%), but still well below 50 percent. And what about second contracts?

This number stunned me... it's seven.

Seven re-signings for the back-to-back Super Bowl champions in their last ten draft classes (and two of those were backup deals like Haynes and Thomas got for the Panthers).

The big difference, obviously, is that the Chiefs re-signed Patrick Mahomes and other NFL teams did not... but still!

Round-by-round

OK, so we've established that less than half of the Panthers' new draft picks are likely to succeed.

In fact, the maximum number of "hits" from each of the last ten Carolina draft classes has been three.

So which three could it be?

If you asked fans who they'd prefer, I'm sure they'd say the three offensive players -- Xavier Legette, Jonathon Brooks and Ja'Tavion Sanders.

Well good news, history says that's one of the most likely combinations!

Out of their last 10 first round draft picks, the Panthers have hit on six of them (Kelvin Benjamin, Shaq Thompson, Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Brian Burns and Derrick Brown), missed on one (Vernon Butler) and have three incompletes (Jaycee Horn, Ikem Ekwonu and Bryce Young).

In 11 second round picks, we'll give them six-and-a-half hits (Devin Funchess, James Bradberry, Curtis Samuel, Taylor Moton, Donte Jackson, Jeremy Chinn and kind of Yetur Gross-Matos) and two incompletes (Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Mingo, although Marshall is trending towards being a miss).

That's pretty solid success rate in the top two rounds and that bodes well for Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks, who will at least get an opportunity to become real contributors.

The late round guys? Not so much.

5th round pick Chau Smith-Wade, 6th round pick Jaden Crumedy and 7th round pick Michael Barrett face an uphill climb because the Panthers are just 2/25 in those rounds since 2014. (And again, I'm being nice because Jermaine Carter Jr. is one of the hits.)

That leaves two players as the potential third "hit" in this class (and remember, that's not guaranteed) -- 3rd round linebacker Trevin Wallace and 4th round tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders.

The Panthers' success rate in these middle rounds is pretty similar (about 33%), so of the two, I'd put my money on Sanders.

I think he's more NFL-ready and could compete for the starting job right away, whereas Wallace will almost certainly have to wait behind Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell.

Reset your expectations

Let's say the Panthers do go 3/7 in this year's draft, with Legette, Brooks and Sanders emerging as "hits".

Is that a successful draft even if only one of those guys makes it to a second contract?

History tells us yes, even though that's far below what most fans are hoping for!

So reset your expectations.

Maybe hold off on dropping $130 for your favorite rookie's authentic jersey. Chances are it's going to be obsolete a lot sooner than you think.

The Panthers won't be a contender again this year, so their primary objective should be all about developing Bryce Young into a franchise quarterback.

The new front office seems to understand that, having loaded up on the offensive line in free agency and skill players in the draft, but don't be surprised if things don't go according to plan.

Even the best teams in the NFL miss more often than not.

Modern (Family) philosopher Phil Dunphy once said "The most amazing things that can happen to a human being will happen to you if you just lower your expectations."

Those are wise words for life... and for this year's Panthers draft class.

Act accordingly.