ACC enters final week of season with lots unsettled

By Lauren Brownlow

The ACC race has plenty of teams still technically alive, but it will likely come down to North Carolina, Miami and Virginia. Do you want me to include Louisville? Okay, whatever. Fine. Although where does this fall under the mockability standard? Can we mock the Cardinals for claiming a regular-season title when they’ve self-imposed a postseason ban? I’ll just wait for Twitter to tell me.

There are plenty of midweek games with ACC regular-season title implications, and so if you want your team to win it or just don’t want that other darned team to win it, here are your rooting interests. Root accordingly!

North Carolina fans: Clemson over Virginia on Tuesday, Georgia Tech over Louisville on Tuesday, Notre Dame over Miami on Wednesday. North Carolina has head-to-head with the Hurricanes anyway, so those games are probably sorted in the order in which Carolina fans should worry about them.

Anybody But Carolina Fans (would include Louisville/Virginia/Miami fans in this scenario): Syracuse on Monday and/or Virginia on Tuesday (although should Syracuse win tonight, Virginia could afford a loss, technically).

Miami Fans: See above ABC scenario, and also Clemson over Virginia on Tuesday plus Georgia Tech over Louisville on Tuesday.

Virginia Fans: See above ABC scenario, plus Georgia Tech over Louisville on Tuesday and Notre Dame over Miami on Wednesday.

Got that?

MONDAY

SYRACUSE (19-10, 9-7 ACC) AT NO. 8 NORTH CAROLINA (23-6, 12-4 ACC)

Time: 7:00 p.m.
TV: ESPN

#ANALYSIS

Here’s something to chew on for you handwringers when it comes to the Tar Heels: when they were on their winning streak earlier in the season, Ken Pomeroy didn’t like them as much. Now, seemingly, they keep rising. That’s what they did after losing at Virginia (from 6 to 5 tying their highest ranking this year). If analytics aren’t your thing, hey, I get it. I’ve watched this team be puzzling at times too. It’s just worth noting.

Syracuse, meanwhile, they were pretty easy on the eyes on Saturday against NC State at home, hitting nearly every three-pointer in sight. That’s not necessarily good news for a North Carolina team that has struggled to guard the three-point line at times, but here IS some good news: North Carolina has been very good against a zone this year, including against Syracuse’s zone. Carolina’s 122.5 offensive efficiency in the first meeting with Syracuse was its second-best in ACC play behind a 140.6 posted against Pitt, which tried to play – you guessed it – a zone.

The Tar Heels will need to maintain that crispness against a zone because you know Jim Boeheim and company will have some tweaks in store for them. And as long as the Tar Heels defend the three-point line against the Orange, oddly enough, they’ll be fine. Syracuse shoots 37 percent from three and 46.6 percent from two in ACC play, plus the Orange score nearly 40 percent of their points from beyond the arc. If they’re cold, they’ll lose, and likely handily.

NAMES TO KNOW

Michael Gbinije. I’m not sure if Gbinije’s Syracuse career will end with him being one of the more underrated ACC players ever or just one of the more…nondescript? Is that a fair word to describe him? Especially for a guy that puts up the numbers he’s putting up. But he was incredibly visible and effective against NC State, putting up 34 points on 11-of-18 shooting to go with six assists and three blocks on Saturday. He had 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting in the loss at home to North Carolina earlier in the season; one could argue that had he shown up, Syracuse might have won. Either way, if he doesn’t have an impact on this game, Syracuse will lose. I feel pretty comfortable saying that.

Brice Johnson. He’s been so consistent this year that a bad game by the senior is sure to get noticed, and he had one at Virginia, getting 12 points on 5-of-9 shooting to go with seven rebounds (four assists but five turnovers). It wasn’t an awful game by any stretch, but again, a noticeable dip for him. Virginia makes it hard on big men, but he wasn’t happy with his own performance. He gets two more regular-season chances at it, and one comes tonight, on his senior night. He’s emotional anyway and it’s usually a good thing for him and the Tar Heels (it has been this year), and he’ll need to channel that energy and disappointment lingering from Saturday into something good. He may not win ACC Player of the Year, but there are still two more games for him to show voters something and it shouldn’t take away from the season he’s had.

(Oh and by the way, last time against Syracuse he had 16 points and eight assists.)

NARRATIVES

Syracuse Win: All of your tobacco roads belong to Syracuse

Syracuse Loss: Well that’s not what you want

North Carolina Win: And?

North Carolina Loss: Carolina fans, basically:

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 83-71. Tar Heels control this one most of the way.

TUESDAY

WAKE FOREST (11-18, 2-15 ACC) AT NO. 17DUKE (21-8, 10-6 ACC)

Time: 8:00 p.m.
TV: WRAL-TV

#ANALYSIS

Mercifully, Wake Forest’s season ends with this game. Everyone else plays this weekend except for the Deacs. It’s fitting, since they packed it in early this year too. This game has the potential to get not just ugly, but REALLY ugly for the Deacs. Duke is mad and coming off of a loss and hmm, did I mention mad? Oh and Duke is going to be facing a defense in Wake’s that is….is porous too harsh? Well, ya know, it’s true. Duke’s was pretty porous against Pitt anyway, but Wake’s offense hasn’t shown anything resembling the consistency or the fortitude to attack it with any real effectiveness anyway. Two more games away from the end of this brutal season for Wake, and one game for Duke to feel good about itself again before facing the Tar Heels on Saturday in Round 2.

NAMES TO KNOW

Devin Thomas. The senior had one of the sadder quotes in recent memory after the Virginia Tech loss on Senior Night Sunday, basically saying he could add it to his list of career disappointments. It’s not inaccurate, and it’s too bad because Thomas has clearly made a lot of emotional progress this year, at least in terms of his on-court demeanor (and those who know him well off the court swear by him). Thomas did have one of his best games of the ACC season earlier this year against Duke with 21 points and 12 rebounds, and we’ve seen bigs be able to do some things against the Blue Devils considering their lack of post depth. But as Wake’s play has fallen off, so has Thomas’ – he has one 20-point game in the last 14. Wake needs Thomas to have even a semblance of a chance, and this will be his last regular-season game. Will he respond?

Brandon Ingram. Ever since his magnificent back-to-back games against Virginia and North Carolina (you could throw in Louisville too, which would make it three; and if you want to limit UNC to one half, that’s fair), Ingram’s play has fallen off a bit. That’s gone under the radar as Grayson Allen has taken center stage because HE BE TRIPPIN’ AMIRTE?!, but it’s a thing. He has 14 turnovers in the last three games (albeit 10 were in one game against Louisville, but still) and he’s shooting just 6-of-19 from two (but 7-of-18 from three) in the last three games. He has just 14 rebounds in that span after pulling down 10 against North Carolina alone. Duke needs the Ingram with that spark in his eye, ready and willing to take over games when Duke needs him.

NARRATIVES

Wake Forest Win: Talk about hollow victories.

Wake Forest Loss: Wake Forest’s season in a nutshell

Duke Win: Wow we already have highlight footage

Duke Loss: OH DEAR GOD

PREDICTION

Duke, 94-80. And it won’t be that close.

_______________

TUESDAY

NO. 4 VIRGINIA (22-6, 11-5 ACC) AT CLEMSON (16-12, 9-7 ACC)

Time: 7:00 p.m.
TV: ESPNU

#ANALYSIS

Virginia has been an excellent team at home all year. The road has been another story. They’re 3-5 there in ACC play (compared to 8-0 at home) and have losses to some meh to bad teams (and some good ones, too). Clemson is…well I’m not sure what Clemson is. But Clemson has kept its NCAA Tournament hopes technically alive, but the Tigers will need to win out AND do some damage in the ACC Tournament. We’ve seen what can happen when hungry bubble teams face contenders coming off of emotional wins (or losses). Can Virginia retain its focus in time to do away with Clemson, however ugly the game is (and yes, it will be ugly)?

NARRATIVES

Virginia Win: Including one of Virginia fan’s favorite things in here, just because.

Virginia Loss: Wow how many games back are we now wait what I can’t read this darned thing oops

Clemson Win: Look at Clemson keeping itself alive

Clemson Loss: Clemson’s back half of the ACC schedule

PREDICTION

Virginia, 73-65. Win’s a win.

GEORGIA TECH (17-12, 7-9 ACC) AT NO. 11 LOUISVILLE (22-7, 11-5 ACC)

Time: 8:00 p.m.
TV: ACC Network

#ANALYSIS

The team with the longest winning streak in the ACC is….that’s right. It’s Georgia Tech. That’s where we are right now with these backloaded schedules and Georgia Tech NOT setting itself on fire, somewhat surprisingly. The Yellow Jackets are starting to get some buzz (PUN ABSOLUTELY INTENDED) as a team that could sneak into the NCAA Tournament, but they’re going to have to win out at a minimum. That won’t be easy; as we’ve seen, Louisville seems to think it has something concrete to play for in the form of a regular-season title before its season ends. Georgia Tech hasn’t beaten anyone all that good in this winning streak, but the Jackets do have a win over Virginia this season, plus a ton of close losses that if they counted for wins, Brian Gregory would’ve already HAD that Paul Hewitt rollover contract. Had Louisville given up, I’d say give me the Jackets all day. But….

NARRATIVES

Georgia Tech Win: Georgia Tech did what now

Georgia Tech Loss: Georgia Tech four-game winning streak and then OHHHHHHH I’m so sorry

Louisville Win: Louisville is mad and they are coming for everyone

Louisville Loss: The equivalent of this

PREDICTION

Louisville, 77-68. Louisville has not given up.

Last week: 11-3
Overall: 83-31