Inconceivable: Playing the odds

When my doctor told me last week that there was a 45 percent chance of my embryo implanting and this IVF cycle working, I felt scared.Thousands of dollars, tons of shots, a significant emotional and financial investment – all for almost a 50/50 chance?? That’s like a coin flip!

I know those odds are better than without any help – and better than a lot of people seeking help for infertility.

At 35 years old, most women have a 15 to 20 percent chance of getting pregnant each month, according to an article on Parents.com. When you search the internet (which I do not recommend doing!), those odds can vary as low as 10 percent each month for women 35 and over. IUIs success rates also vary – with some studies showing an 8 to 20 percent success rate when using fertility drugs in addition to the procedure.

At my appointment this week, my doctor mentioned that 95 percent of frozen embryos survive the thaw. Another percentage. A good percentage but still a 5 percent chance one won’t make it?! So if our AB grade embryo doesn’t survive the thaw, they will thaw our BA graded one to use. So many variables to consider.

All of these percentages and odds just got my head spinning and since statistics was not my favorite subject, I decided to once again search the internet for help.

All I was focusing on was the chance things could go wrong. When you have so much invested in this, any hint that things might not work can trigger those seeds of doubt. Before taking to Google, I reached out to a wise friend who had some great advice. Here are here exact comments:

Then, I started thinking about the long shot odds that exist every day.

When I was in the final weeks of my pregnancy with my now five-year-old son, my childhood home in Louisiana was decimated by Hurricane Isaac. My parents and brother still lived there and everything was flooded. My mom was in North Carolina helping me prep for the baby’s birth and the rest of my family fled to a hotel with as many belongings as they could carry.

It was a disaster. It was so hard to be so far away and not be able to do anything to help. A group of volunteers with the Latter-day Saints helped my father (who was recovering from colon cancer) gut the home and clean it on a Sunday. Two days later, I went into labor. It was like my body refused to have that baby until things were under control. 

By some miracle, my family was able to sell their home – as is! – to someone who wanted to redo it and turn it into rental property. They used the money to relocate to North Carolina. The home flooded in late August and by December we had Christmas together. My son is able to grow up with his grandparents and I am forever grateful.

But what are the odds that this kind of thing would happen around the time my first child was due? My family lived in that home for more than 30 years without any flooding. They even got through Hurricane Katrina with only cosmetic damage to the house.

The odds had to be astronomical, but it happened and it all happened at the time my family needed to be together the most.

Since my husband is a sports writer, I started thinking of the odds in sports. The odds of a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament were about 5 percent, according to my very rough math skills. But it happened for the first time earlier this year when UMBC beat Virginia. Before that No. 16 seeds were 0-135 against No. 1 seeds. UMBC beat the odds and busted up some brackets.

I guess what I learned when analyzing all of these numbers was that they really don’t matter. Even if there was a 10 percent chance that this transfer will work, I’m already in too deep financially and emotionally to walk away. No matter what the odds are, all it takes is one good egg, one good sperm and a little bit of luck. I’m all in and hopefully I’m on the right side of the odds this time.