Name: Fact-checking Duke Energy's forecast claim for Christmas Eve blackouts
Uploaded: 2023-01-04T19:18:56-0500
Duration: 198987
Description: WRAL Investigates looked into whether Duke Energy's forecasting was accurate leading up to last month's rolling blackouts.

More than a dozen former employees say understaffing at Brynn Marr Hospital contributes to what they describe as a dangerous place for patients and employees. Hospital officials say allegations of violence, sexual assaults, overmedication and lack of mental health therapy are unfounded.

Former employees say short-staffed NC psych hospital rife with violence, abuse

Brynn Marr Hospital

According to a recent Edmunds used vehicle report, demand for used cars is dropping and so are their values as the new-car market rebounds from pandemic-induced shortages. T 

Edmunds: Trade or sell your car? What's best might surprise you

Behind_the_Wheel_Trade_or_Sell_Your_Car_96070

WRAL Investigates looked into whether Duke Energy's forecasting was accurate leading up to last month's rolling blackouts.

WILL PURSUE A FORMAL APPEAL OF THE DECISION. >> THERE ARE STILL MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS ABOUT THIS CHRISTMAS EVE POWER OUTAGE THAT AFFECTED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE IN NORTH CAROLINA IN A BRIEFING YESTERDAY, DUKE ENERGY SAID THE BLACKOUTS WERE NEEDED TO STABILIZE THE GRID WHEN DEMAND FOR POWER EXCEEDED SUPPLY. DUKE SAID ITS DEMAND ON CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING EXCEEDED ITS FORECAST BY ABOUT 10%. OUR CAPITOL BUREAU CHIEF LAURA LESLIE, HAS BEEN DIGGING INTO THE REASONS FOR THAT AND SHE JOINS US LIVE FROM DUKE'S DOWNTOWN HEADQUARTERS FLOOR. >> TERRELL DUKE ENERGY EXECUTIVES TOLD STATE REGULATORS YESTERDAY THAT PART OF THE REASON FOR THE ROLLING BLACKOUTS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WAS IT. THE WEATHER WAS COLDER THAN EXPECTED. WELL, OBVIOUSLY THE WINTER STORM WAS NOT A SECRET TO ANYBODY. SO WE WONDERED, WAS THERE FORECASTING ACCURATE? AND WE SPENT MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKING INTO HOW MUCH OF A ROLE THAT MIGHT HAVE PLAYED. >> NOT ONLY ARE THE TEMPERATURES MUCH LOWER THAN TYPICAL IN OUR REGION DROPPED AT A VERY FAST RATE. IT GOT MUCH COLDER, MUCH FASTER THAN WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE HERE IN THE CAROLINAS. THAT'S DUKE ENERGY, NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENT KENDALL BOWMAN, HER TEAM SAID DUKE USES 3 FORECASTING MODELS AND ALL 3 INCLUDE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST. DUKE VICE PRESIDENT SAM HOLMAN TOLD REGULATORS THAT AS OF MONDAY THE 19TH ITS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH NWS FOR THE TRIANGLE AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. >> AND THE E P WE WERE PREDICTING A TEMPERATURE OF 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE PEAK ON THE 24. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS PREDICTING 21. >> OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH, THE FORECAST CHANGED BY THE DAY BEFORE THE BLACKOUTS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS PREDICTING A LOW CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING OF 11 DEGREES IN RALEIGH AND 13 IN FAYETTEVILLE. QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE EARLIER FORECAST. THE ACTUAL LOW AT RDU THAT MORNING WAS JUST 10 DEGREES AND WIND CHILLS WERE PREDICTED BELOW 0 THROUGHOUT THE AREA. INCREASING DEMAND EVEN MORE SPOKESMAN JEFF BROOKS TOLD US DUKE WAS UPDATING ITS FORECASTING MODELS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AT ITS FINAL FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING WAS JUST A DEGREE OR 2 OFF NWS AND THE ACTUAL LOW. THE PROBLEM WAS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DEMAND. HE SAID THEY'RE LOOKING INTO WHETHER WIND CHILL COULD HAVE PLAYED A ROLE IN THAT DUKE. VICE PRESIDENT NELSON PEELER TOLD REGULATORS EACH DEGREE OF THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN THE WINTER INCREASES DEMAND BY 200 TO 300 MEGAWATTS. BUT HE INSISTED A MORE ACCURATE FORECASTS WOULDN'T HAVE PREVENTED THE NEED FOR THE ROLLING BLACKOUTS BECAUSE THE UTILITY NEEDED TO PURCHASE EXTRA POWER FROM THE GRID. CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING. AND IT JUST WASN'T THERE TO BUY PERFECT FORECAST. >> WEEK AHEAD WITH CERTAINLY BEEN HELPFUL TO PREPARE. BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT THERE WAS LIMITED ENERGY AVAILABLE AT THOSE LEVELS. WE COULD HAVE PREPARED BETTER. WE COMMUNICATED MATTER, BUT TO SAY IT WOULD ELIMINATE EVENT WOULD I THINK, WOULD BE A STRETCH. >> THE EXTREME COLD TOOK A TOLL ON DUKE ON THE GENERATION SIDE AS WELL. UTILITY TOLD REGULATORS YESTERDAY IT LOST NEARLY 1.4 GIGAWATTS OF POWER AND POWER GENERATION CAPACITY TO 2. NOW FUNCTIONING EQUIPMENT. AND THAT WAS BECAUSE BY THE EXTREME COLD AND THAT'S AFTER THE UTILITY TOLD STATE REGULATORS LAST SUMMER THAT IT HAD COMPLETED ALL THE UPGRADES TO WEATHER PROOFING AT ITS FACILITIES, GERALD. AND TO BE CLEAR, THE WRAL FORECASTERS PREDICT A LOW OF 10 FOR CHRISTMAS EVE. >> INDEED, WAS 10 CHRISTMAS EVE. WELL, LESLIE LIVE FOR US

Mark Bergin

Laura Leslie

Luke Notestine

Fact-checking Duke Energy's forecast claim for Christmas Eve blackouts

Duke Energy,NC Utilities Commission,NCCapitol,WRAL Investigates,WRAL specialists,power outage

WRAL-TV News Broadcasts: Watch each newscast live or watch the most recent newscast on demand.

WRAL Late News 

Get the latest WRAL WeatherCenter Forecast whenever you need it, including the DUALDoppler5000 and the 7-Day Forecast.

I'm meteorologist K Campbell in the wr a severe weather center here with your mother. Stay forecast. It looks absolutely beautiful. On Sunday, humidity will be low. Temperatures will be comfortable and we've got a nice dry day with just some passing puffy cumulus clouds. 76 for the high on Mother's Day in Roxboro, 78 in Durham, 79 Raleigh 78 in Rocky Mount and back up in the lower eighties in Southern Pines in Fayetteville. It's partly cloudy with a bit more sunshine in morning. If you're doing a Mother's Day brunch, it should be around the low to mid sixties at that time. By lunchtime, we're warming up 72 partly cloudy and mid seventies for dinner time temperatures. Now, depending on how much rain you saw last week, you may need to pick back up on some watering for your garden. I don't need to at my house with the rain we saw, but we do have a dry forecast for Sunday and Monday as we get into next week, we should see more rain return to the forecast. It looks like a pretty unsettled middle part next week. We even have a chance for some scattered showers lingering through about 2 a.m. in our southern counties. This is not just going to bring the chance of a quick passing shower tonight but also quite a bit of cloud cover into the area. So about 75% of the sky is going to be covered by clouds. 11 p.m. midnight, more clouds than clear sky by 1 a.m. that starts to back off by 2:03 a.m. here in the triangle especially. And this is really relevant because we do have another chance to see the northern lights tonight. I don't think skies will begin to clear until between midnight and 2 a.m. So it would really be after that, that we would have the best shot at seeing the northern lights. Here's the thing though, the maximum of that solar storm is going to have to align perfectly with the time when our skies begin to clear out. There's no guarantee that will happen, but it is possible. It is a similar forecast intensity for the geomagnetic storm to what we saw last night. Be sure to let your eyes adjust. You can't just walk out. I look to the north and expect to instantly see it. You need to be patient, sit outside, let your eyes adjust. Could look something like this. This is what was seen in a Wade by Richard last night. Really cool stuff for your seven day forecast. We've got a nice couple of days ahead and then we've got more storms in the forecast by Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday storm chances up to 70%. There's a chance we could get a break from rain chances Thursday and then storm chances are back in a more scattered fashion for the end of next week.

WRAL WeatherCenter Forecast

The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is holding its 2024 graduation ceremony Saturday evening. 

Celebrate the Class of 2024! 🎓 Watch UNC-Chapel Hill's commencement ceremony

Daytime Pick 3 and Pick 4 drawings are held at 3 p.m. daily. They can be seen as live or on-demand video.

Good afternoon. I'm Me Global. Welcome to this afternoon's drawings for Saturday, May 11th, 2024. Let's get started with Carolina pick three. The first victory number is to the second is five. The third is one and our pick three fireball number is five. Joining me for this afternoon drawing is our auditor from a con and Jones L LP. Now let's move on to Carolina pick for the first four. Number is to the second is one. The third is eight, the fourth is four and our pick four. Fireball number is four. The North Carolina education lottery has contributed over $10 billion to education. Thanks for your support. Get your winning numbers each day at three and again at 1122. Thanks for playing.

Daytime Pick 3 and Pick 4 Drawing

Nightly N.C. Education Lottery drawings during the 11 p.m. News.

Good evening. I'm Gayle. Her, welcome to tonight's drawings for Friday May 10th, 2024. Well, let's get started tonight with our Carolina pick three. Our first winning number is a zero. Our second number is seven and our third number tonight is eight and our pick three. Fireball number is three. Joining me for tonight's drawing is our auditor from MC Connolly Jones L LP. Now let's move to the Carolina pick four. Good luck. Everyone who's that first winning pick four number. It's a one. Our second number four, third number tonight is two and our fourth number this evening is seven and our pick for fireball number is a three. Well, turning now to the Carolina cash five. If no one was the top prize tonight, tomorrow's top prize is estimated at $770,000. Good luck. Everyone is that first winning cash five number is 26. Our second number, it's 33 3rd number tonight. It's 22. Our fourth number is 39 and the final number in our cash five this evening is 17, the North Carolina education lottery has contributed over $10 billion education. Thanks to your support. Get your winning numbers right here every night in your exclusive station for the North Carolina Education lottery. Thanks for playing. Have a good night and a great weekend.

Evening Pick 3 Pick 4 and Cash 5

Tuesday and Friday Mega Millions Drawing.

>> ACROSS AMERICA WITH MEGA JACKPOTS, IT'S MEGA MILLIONS. WHAT'S UP JOHN COHEN IS FRIDAY MAY 10TH AND TONIGHT'S MEGA MILLIONS JACKPOT IS AN ESTIMATED A NEW TIES. 331 MILLION DOLLARS TO WIN THAT JACKPOT. YOU MISSED IT SEES 5 WHITE PLUS THAT GOLD MEGA BALL. NOW. LET'S SEE IF I CAN MAKE YOU A MILLIONAIRE TONIGHT. FIRST WINNING NUMBER TONIGHT IS 32. THAT'S FOLLOWED BY. 26. UP NEXT, WE HAVE 13 IN X NUMBER IS 22 IN YOUR FINAL WHITE BALL NUMBER FOR THIS FRIDAY EVENING. IS 65 NOW FOR THE MEGA BALL NUMBER. THAT IS 18 IN TONIGHT'S WINNING NUMBERS ARE 30 TO 26

Mega Millions Drawing

Interstate 40 West is closed Friday after a crash along the interstate near Garner.

Sky 5 flies over I-40 West crash near Garner

Carolina Hurricanes coach Rod Brind'Amour talks about facing a 3-0 series deficit against the New York Rangers and looks ahead to Game 4 on Saturday.

<p>Ok. Rock Sebastian was mentioned, the ac Sebastian mentioned today, it seemed pretty spirited practice that everybody got some got out of their system. Yeah, I mean, that's the only way you can do. It. Certainly don't want to feel sorry for yourselves or anything that it's a new day and you got a new challenge tomorrow, put our best foot forward, you reconfigured the power play units a little bit in practice today is that I'm assuming it's more about execution than personnel at this point. Yeah, it always is. It always comes down to that. We had good players and maybe it was two units doesn't really, you know, scrambling the players around. I don't know how much that's gonna change. You gotta get a little more, um, dialed in on, on, uh, the execution part. You had tr check here for a couple of years. Is there anything that he's doing this series of surprises? No, we talked about him. Yeah. No, and we knew he was a good player so we got him and tried to keep him but didn't work out. I mean, business and, uh, you know, he's certainly been a huge factor how difficult is Canar to deal with. I mean, you know, obviously scored as many points in the head but he's been hardly the only guy that's, well, they got, they got that. I mean, like some real high talent. I mean, that's, that's, you know, you, you could tend to shut them down or try to for a little while but they just need a, a hair and all of a sudden they make you pay and that's, that's why they're elite, you know, um, among the other things that they do, but that's, that's the separator, you, your top on everything we ask for that, you know, below them. They, they're generating all the other ones are generating chances but the goal is high. Is there any concern with that aspect of it? Um, well, yeah, I mean, it's definitely concern. That's why we're in a hole we're in as well. But it's, it's, you know, like, what are you gonna do? You gotta, we know that one area we have to be better at and then the rest side we can't fault around it because it's just, you know, otherwise you have no chance. So we're, we're, you know, in a tough spot. We know that, but it's the old story boring where you gotta just worry about one game and see where it goes, what's missing on the power play that was there and the amateur series there, we'll see what's not. Yeah, I think we're just a little off on. Um, well, it's, listen, you gotta give them credit. I think that's the first thing you do. They're, they're doing their system really well and they're knowing when the pressure and what not, and we just haven't handled that the way we normally do. And I think that's really the beginning of it. Right. Obviously you guys have had a high shot volume for the first three games. Do you think just Durkin's finding more confidence through the more shots he sees? Is there any, you know, adjustment to make under? That's a question for him. I mean, you, you, you know, I think he's made a lot of quality saves too. I mean, I looked at him today and there's a couple that are well, world class, I mean, that and that's a couple that go the other way. That's the difference. I mean, you're not talking about it all you got, you gotta get better shots. I mean, he's been the difference and there's, there's no way around it and you got to give him credit and, you know, you can say we're not getting good enough shots, but you're making some good saves too. Have you made a decision yet on where you're going in that? No, no. Yeah. Right back to and we keep going power for all these reasons. Just do you, do you guys need to make quicker decisions with party, party? I mean, it's the right decision. It's not quicker. I mean, we were good all year. It's just right now we have, uh, you know, really? Yeah, I didn't love it again. The is in this series, I thought it was ok. But we, we hit a three game snag here and the wrong time of the year to hit it. What is that? Is that comfort in routine as a hockey player? You do the same things all season and then things get difficult like this. Do you, do you find some comfort in the routines that you have? Yeah, that's a good question. Um, I think you probably do, you know, um, something you can rely on something, you know, it's that they always, that next day mentality that we have in this league. And, um, and what's done is done, you gotta worry about the next thing that's on your plate. So, and I think that's, that's a good way to look at it. How do you balance desperation and what that means for your guys versus overdo it a bit. Yeah, I think the one thing that I, I love always about this group is that they, and you watch this fight. I mean, we pretty much always play that way. So it's not about, you know, I try to do too much or too long and I think they, they, they do what they always can and I'm assuming I'll do that again tomorrow. Consider the circumstances where you're happy with where your team work today. Very p yeah, very good. I mean, we, we all are grown here, man. We understand the situation but what you have to also approach it the right way and it's a great opportunity. We're still, we're still playing and uh you know, I think the focus is just on trying to find that to get that much better. All right. Thanks a lot. Thanks for the great.</p>

Fact-checking Duke Energy's forecast claim for Christmas Eve blackouts

More On This

Fact-checking Duke Energy's forecast claim for Christmas Eve blackouts

Related Topics

More Videos

WRAL Late News

WRAL WeatherCenter Forecast

Celebrate the Class of 2024! 🎓 Watch UNC-Chapel Hill's commencement ceremony

Daytime Pick 3 and Pick 4 Drawing

Evening Pick 3 Pick 4 and Cash 5

Mega Millions Drawing

Sky 5 flies over I-40 West crash near Garner

Brind'Amour: It's a new day and a new challenge