Health experts fear resurgence in coronavirus if NC reopens too quickly

"I am concerned that we are going to find ourselves potentially in a worse shape than we have been in the last six weeks if we go too fast with this," said Dr. Thomas Denny, chief executive of the Duke Human Vaccine Institute.

Denny, professor of medicine Dr. Michael "Dee" Gunn and professor of medicine and infectious diseases Dr. Christopher Woods said extensive testing across North Carolina for the coronavirus is crucial before any restrictions are lifted.

North Carolina is testing about 2,500 virus cases a day, including about 400 at the state public health lab.

"It's been a roller-coaster ride," lab director Scott Shone said, noting the lab isn't designed to be a huge diagnostic facility but has been bridging the gap since early March while hospitals and private labs ramped up.

"We are working with a variety of public and private partners to make sure we have as much capacity within the state and as much access as possible, especially for our underserved populations and those at higher risk, to get tested for COVID-19," he said.

The Duke experts said the state lab and others will be stretched beyond capacity if North Carolina and other states drop their social distancing restrictions and rush to reopen. They noted that it has taken the state about six weeks for us to flatten the infection-rate curve, and it will take several more weeks to get to the other side of that curve.

"The people who are advocating that we eliminate social distancing right now and that we completely open up the economy, what they are really advocating for is that every single person in this country become infected with coronavirus because that’s what’s going to happen if we throw things wide open," Gunn said. "So, if you like your grandmother, you may not want to do that."

Gov. Roy Cooper has pushed the federal government for more supplies so testing can be expanded, but the experts said it's unclear how many tests will be needed to get an accurate picture of the extent of the virus in North Carolina. The number of the people infected when restrictions are lifted will help determine that, they said.

"If we can really damp down the ongoing level of infection to a very low level, it’s a lot easier to track the hotspots that pop up and jump on," Gunn said. "But if you don’t do that, if you don’t get that baseline down, it becomes a game of Whack-a-Mole."

"People drive across the state line, and the lovely and charming folks from South Carolina will come up and infect us even if we are doing good social distancing," he said.