WRAL Weather lesson: Many models for tracking storms look like spaghetti, combine to improve forecast

Each hurricane season, we use many different tools in order to forecast and predict the most accurate potential track of developing systems. A slight path difference of mere miles can have drastic effects on who potentially sees major versus minor impacts in the end.

When looking at developing systems, an important piece of technology are the spaghetti model plots. Aptly named for their unique pasta-like appearance, these charts depict many different outcomes or simulations for a given storm.

Billions of computer calculations are run with different potential atmospheric conditions (i.e., temperature, cloud cover, winds, etc.). The result is shown to be the individual strand, often represented by separate colors. There are many potential outcomes, and no model is 100% accurate.

In order to formulate a forecast, we narrow in on where the computer simulations are close together. It is in this region where we have relatively little uncertainty and can have a very good idea of a potential track.

As we go forward in time, as with any forecast, we expect there to be more uncertainty and potential outcomes showing up on the model plots. Thus, the strands often begin to diverge and there is more of a spread.

As forecasters, we work in close cooperation with the skilled professionals at the National Hurricane Center. They also use the spaghetti model plots to help produce the forecast “cone” that we often talk about on television. Usually, the cone is in very close proximity or even over these model plots.

It is important to remember that the spaghetti model plots do not depict the potential impact of a storm. It is still always important to prepare well in advance of an approaching system. Make sure to stay with the WRAL Severe Weather Center as we track the tropics all season long on-air and online.