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WRAL News poll: 3 tied atop Democratic presidential field in NC

Two weeks out from North Carolina's March 3 primary, three Democrats are in essentially a dead heat for the state's presidential nomination, according to a new WRAL News poll.

Posted Updated

By
Matthew Burns
, WRAL.com senior producer/politics editor
RALEIGH, N.C. — Two weeks out from North Carolina's March 3 primary, three Democrats are in essentially a dead heat for the state's presidential nomination, according to a new WRAL News poll.

Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders each garnered 22 percent support, while former Vice President Joe Biden was at 20 percent in the exclusive poll, conducted last Thursday through Sunday by SurveyUSA.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg led the second tier of Democratic candidates in the poll, with 11 percent support, followed by U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren at 8 percent and Amy Klobuchar at 5 percent. Eleven percent of respondents remain undecided.

SurveyUSA polled 2,335 registered voters in the scientific poll, producing a margin of error on the approval questions of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Of those registered voters, 698 indicated they would likely cast a Democratic ballot by Election Day, while another 501 said they would likely cast a Republican ballot, producing margins of error on individual race questions of plus or minus 5 to 5.6 percentage points.

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North Carolina is among 14 states holding primaries on "Super Tuesday," but it carries the third-largest haul of delegates in the presidential race among those states, behind only California and Texas.

Bloomberg and Sanders each appeared at campaign rallies across North Carolina last week, as early voting in the primary began. Buttigieg is expected to make a swing through the state in the next week.

Each of the top three candidates has distinct pockets of support:

  • Bloomberg polls well among women, garnering 27 percent support among female respondents. Biden, at 18 percent, has the next largest share of women voters in the state.
  • Sanders is far and away the leader among young voters, pulling in support of 41 percent of respondents ages 18 to 34, as well as 29 percent ages 35 to 49. Biden finished a distant second among voters 18 to 34, with only 18 percent, while Bloomberg pulled 22 percent support among voters 34 to 49.
  • Biden garnered 35 percent support from black respondents, while Bloomberg, who has been criticized for stop-and-frisk policies by New York police while he was mayor, was second at 25 percent.

"Six months ago, I you'd have asked men, I would have said the democrats are looking for a woman or a person of color to be at the top of their ticket. Yet, here we are, over a month into the process and ... [we have] three old, white men," said David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College in Raleigh.

Despite Sanders' populist appeal and identification as a democratic socialist, Biden has about double the support, 37 to 18 percent, among respondents who say they are poor and 38 to 16 percent among those who say they are falling further into debt. Sanders does lead among those who say they are "just getting by" financially, while he and Bloomberg are essentially tied among respondents who classify themselves as working class and middle class.

Interestingly, Buttigieg, who is openly gay, finished second to Sanders among LGBT respondents, 32 to 21 percent, and two Jewish candidates, Sanders and Bloomberg, lead Biden, the lone Catholic in the race, among Catholics polled. Also, Bloomberg finished second among respondents who are gun owners, despite his nationwide campaign for handgun restrictions.

Among likely Democratic voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, Buttigieg garnered the most support, with 14 percent of respondents, followed by Sanders at 12 percent and Warren at 10 percent.

Sanders holds a clear lead in a nationwide poll conducted by SurveyUSA at the same time as the WRAL News poll. He was backed by 29 percent of respondents, while Bloomberg – who won't appear on any ballots until Super Tuesday – and Biden were tied at 18 percent.

Yet, Biden's results were down from an earlier national poll, SurveyUSA reports. A month ago, he led Sanders by double digits, and his leads among seniors, blacks and other constituencies have evaporated.

"If Bloomberg does get momentum on Super Tuesday, we could see that momentum keep building all the way through to the nomination," McLennan said. "Joe Biden, let's not write him off. He could turn things around in South Carolina and be more in the discussion in North Carolina and other Super Tuesday states and be right back to being front-runner."

The South Carolina primary is on Feb. 29, three days before Super Tuesday.

Other primary races included in the WRAL News poll weren't close at all:

  • Trump had 91 percent support in North Carolina's Republican presidential primary.
  • Gov. Roy Cooper had 73 percent support, with 18 percent undecided, to win the Democratic nomination as he seeks a second term.
  • Lt. Gov. Dan Forest topped state Rep. Holly Grange, R-New Hanover, by a 60-8 margin, with 32 percent undecided, in the Republican nomination for governor.
  • Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, who is seeking a second six-year term, had 59 percent support, with 29 percent undecided.
  • Cal Cunningham outdistanced state Sen. Erica Smith, 42-17, and three other candidates, with 34 percent undecided, for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.

Trump's approval rating among those polled was 45 percent, while 41 percent of respondents strongly disapprove of his job performance. Supporters were older, more affluent and white, while those who disapprove were younger, poorer and more likely to be minorities.

Cooper, meanwhile, has a 50 percent approval rating in the poll, with 15 percent saying they weren't sure how to rate his performance after three years in office. Younger and minority respondents gave him higher marks than older and white ones.

Tillis' approval rate was 38 percent, with 20 percent unsure five years into his first term. Congress overall got even poorer marks in the poll, with a 29 percent approval rating. Dislike of Congress was bipartisan and crossed gender, racial, age and income lines.

The North Carolina General Assembly had a 39 percent approval rating. Not surprisingly, respondents who said they are Republican or identified themselves as conservative gave higher marks to the GOP-controlled legislature than Democrats and those identify as liberal.

WRAL anchor/reporter David Crabtree contributed to this report.

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