Why you should keep a close eye on Oklahoma tonight

When voters are voting, we are chatting. Below, our conversation about what to watch for on the ballot today/tonight, head vs. heart voting and, of course, Harry's beloved Buffalo Bills.

Our conversation, lightly edited for flow, is below.

Chris: Harry! Voters are voting! This is the last big -- multiple states voting -- primary between now and August. We've got South Carolina, Maryland, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Colorado, New York and Utah all voting today.

The big storylines, as I see it, are:

Senator Mitt Romney. Romney has only one opponent in the Republican primary and looks like he will roll easily. And, this being Utah, Romney is a very strong favorite to replace retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch next year. Is Donald Trump's favorite governor in any real trouble? Trump was in South Carolina on Monday night to tout Gov. Henry McMaster, who's in a runoff today against John Warren. Polling shows the race sort of, kind of close. Is it? The return of the Grimm Reaper. Former congressman and former convict Michael Grimm is challenging Rep. Dan Donovan for his old Staten Island congressional seat. This is the most Staten Island race of all time. Does Grimm have a chance?

Am I missing any? Which do you like best? Let's goooooooooooo!

Harry: Christopher, Shalom!

There are people voting. People are voting in my home state and home city of New York. Heck, there's a school across the street where people vote. It's a great day for America. Truly.

I think your list is pretty solid.

I'll add one: liberal (or progressive) challenges to well-established congressional incumbents in New York. The most notable of which is in New York's 14th Congressional District where Democrat Joe Crowley (who could in certain scenarios be the next speaker of the House) is facing off against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The Intercept (started by Glenn Greenwald among others) has been pumping up her candidacy like I pump up Diet A&W Cream Soda.

I don't expect any of those challenges to succeed, however. If any of them do, it could be a big wake-up call to Gov. Andrew Cuomo who faces a primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon in the fall. Yes, New York manages to have two primary days, which is nuts.

If you want to look at a primary challenge that has a good chance of succeeding, then look to my favorite race of the night: the GOP primary in New York's 11th Congressional District.

I'm sure you have some thoughts about that ... I know I do.

Chris: So, let's talk NY-11.

A Siena/NY1 poll released earlier this month showed Grimm up 47-37 over Donovan. I assume that's mostly just name ID since Grimm has, um, been in the headlines a lot.

You've been to the district recently. Do you think Grimm is the favorite today? And do voters not care that he was incarcerated for felony tax fraud?

And, maybe more importantly: if Grimm wins, does that give Democrats a real chance of winning the seat in November?

Harry: I love talking New York 11. I love Staten Island as much as any Bronx boy could love Staten Island, which is to say "it's OK."

I would say Grimm has a real shot there, though that poll was taken nearly a month ago. If you pull up that poll, most GOP voters think he's the most Trump-like. That's big given that Trump has an over 80% favorable rating among Republican voters in the district. Donovan voted against the Trump tax cuts, but does have Trump's endorsement.

I think some voters do care about Grimm's tax conviction, but many don't. They think it's overridden by the fact that either his time as congressman in which he was praised for his constituent services as well as his ability to pass Hurricane Sandy aid or that the Obama Justice Department was out to get him.

I think, though, you hit on the most important point: general election viability. Look at the Siena poll. Many more Donovan voters say they won't automatically cast a ballot for the GOP nominee in the fall than Grimm voters who say they will. More primary voters think Donovan is the better general election candidate. Finally, look at each of their electoral track records. Grimm won with 55% in 2014 when the GOP was winning the House vote by 6 nationally. Donovan won with 62% of the vote in 2016 when the GOP was winning the House vote by 1 nationally.

This is a district Trump won by 10, but Obama won by 4. A weak general election candidate gives Democrats a real fighting shot in this race.

I don't think that's the case for the other races you have mentioned, though.

Chris: I think I might put my money on Grimm for this simple reason: Primary voters are not typically strategic. As in, they vote for the candidate they like as opposed to the candidate that someone tells them has the better chance to win some far-off election.

People like me and you are forever poring over polls and data to see who might be the best nominee. Normal people -- and, no, Harry, we are not normal -- don't do that. So, I'll take the heart candidate over the head candidate every time -- especially in a primary.

I am intrigued by the McMaster-Warren race if only because I think it's totally intriguing that a governor that Donald Trump has gone all out for is in ANY danger of losing a Republican race in a state that is as reliably conservative as South Carolina.

Of course, that assumes there is a chance McMaster loses. What say you?

Harry: I choose heart over head when it comes to sports. I mean how else can one be a Buffalo Bills fan? In politics, you gotta go with the head. Of course, I sometimes wonder if my gut gets in the way of my head.

Anyway, McMaster as a politician is fascinating to me. He lost to Fritz Hollings in the 1986 Senate race and hasn't stopped running for stuff since. McMaster also endorsed Jon Huntsman in 2012 and then was one of the first to endorse Trump in the 2016 cycle. I see those two as very different politicians, but apparently they were close enough for McMaster.

The public polling is minimal in South Carolina. It generally matches the first-round result, which is McMaster winning. The exact margin to be determined. I should say internal polling released publicly (for which we should be quite suspicious) actually had McMaster trailing.

Perhaps most interesting about the race (as in New York 11) is that Trump decided not to endorse the candidate who better matched his profile. McMaster's opponent John Warren is an outsider businessman like Trump.

Trump went with loyalty instead.

To quote a favorite film of mine, "it's a bold strategy Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em."

Chris: "Dodgeball." It's a damn classic.

"We should mate ... you know, socially." -- White Goodman

McMaster is a very odd one as a politician. He endorsed George W. Bush in the 2000 GOP primary and then John McCain in 2008. Then Huntsman. Then Trump. I dare you to try an ideological through line (or any sort of through line) between those four.

I think the way to understand Trump's endorsement of McMaster is to return to one of the basic principles we know about Trump: He likes people who like him. McMaster got on board with Trump early on in 2016. Trump remembers that. He wants to reward McMaster. So, he endorses him. And goes there to campaign for him.

Never overthink it with Trump -- at least in my experience. The obvious answer is almost always the right answer.

OK, so we are keeping our eye on:

NY-11 SC-Gov The Joe Crowley primary in NY-14

Give me one other race that might actually provide some surprise (so, not Utah).

Harry: Trump is Sally Field. He just wants people to like him!

Let me throw a real curveball at you. There are several gubernatorial primaries tonight including Colorado and Maryland. Those primaries are fine and have their own subplots (e.g. Bernie Sanders endorsed Ben Jealous in Maryland and an openly gay man in Jared Polis is facing a woman in Cary Kennedy in the year of the woman in Colorado).

But none of those primaries may end up being more important than Oklahoma. I have zero clue what's going to happen in the GOP primary there, while Democrat Drew Edmondson will almost certainly be the nominee for his party. You might remember that Oklahoma was the site for all those teacher protests this year. You might also remember that Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016.

There will probably be no GOP nominee crowned tonight in Oklahoma, given you need 50%+ to win a nomination. But if the GOP doesn't choose wisely, it could end up haunting them.

Limited general election polling has Edmondson quite competitive in the fall. Remember, Oklahoma had a Democratic governor as recently as the beginning of this decade. It's not out of reach for them in the fall.

One might say that's what the beginnings of a wave looks like...