Why the veepstakes isn't exactly a popularity contest
Now that Joe Biden is the Democrats' presumptive nominee, he's in the middle of vetting and picking his running mate. Biden has pledged to pick a woman -- and a new poll shows Americans have a preference.
Posted — UpdatedSen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is the top choice, viewed favorably by 69% of Democratic voters and unfavorably by 19%, according to new polling from CNN and SSRS. Behind her are Sen. Kamala Harris of California, then Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Cue the déjà vu: Just four years ago, Warren was also the public's top pick for Hillary Clinton's veepstakes in a Monmouth poll (h/t to polling pro Grace Sparks, who dug through the archives).
But Warren, as we all know, was not Clinton's VP choice. That was Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia -- who that Monmouth Poll showed made a "negligible to slightly negative impact" among general election voters if he shared a ticket with Clinton.
It goes to show the veepstakes is a more complicated calculus than simply asking, "Who does the public like the most right now?"
The same thing happened on the GOP side, too. In 2016, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida registered the biggest positive impact on a ticket with then-candidate Donald Trump, Monmouth found. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence wasn't an option for respondents.
The trend holds for 2012, when Mitt Romney vetted his VP. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in CNN's polling preferred Rubio, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who were tied in third place. Ryan got the nod (but not the vice presidency, as Romney lost).
The Point: Hold your horses, Elizabeth Warren fans. If history is any guide, the public's top VP preference isn't even close to guaranteed that spot on the ticket.
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