Why GOP did better in NC than in other states on election day

While Republican candidates around the country largely underperformed last week, Republicans in North Carolina took control of the state Supreme Court, won back their supermajority in the state Senate and did nearly the same in the state House.

Republican House Speaker Tim Moore is one vote away from having a supermajority in his chamber. His party flipped at least a half dozen seats Tuesday night, netting two additional votes after accounting for seats lost to redistricting.

Moore, R-Cleveland, thinks the Republican message is resonating with North Carolina voters, especially because of the work GOP lawmakers have done to strengthen the state’s economy.

NC Republicans win Senate supermajority, but fall just shy in House

“I mean, folks, watching this, if they think about it, ‘Oh yeah, there's all these new job announcements. There's all these new houses being built. There's all these folks living here,’” Moore said. “Well, that's not an accident.”

“They overplayed their hand,” Moore said of the Democratic judges. “I mean, particularly on those judicial matters, that's what our poll numbers are showing us, and I think this is what the election results showed as well.”

Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer said the GOP had a better election night in North Carolina than in other states because their voters turned out. Registered Republicans make up just 30% of the state’s voters, but exit polls show they made up 37% of the voters in the 2022 election. Bitzer said 97% of those voters voted straight-party tickets.

“What we know about North Carolina politics is registered Republicans have the highest turnout rates since 2010,” Bitzer said. “If you're getting 97% from the biggest group, you already have a built-in advantage.”

Bitzer thinks that’s also the explanation for the GOP’s sweep of the courts. He said support for GOP judges was almost an exact match of support last week for Republican U.S. Rep. Ted Budd in each county. Budd was the victor in the race for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat.

“If you were loyal to Ted Budd, you voted Republican straight down the ballot, and that affected the judicial races, almost to a point that it was a perfect relationship between the two,” Bitzer said.

Bitzer said Democrats also had strong party loyalty, running around 97%, but their voters simply didn’t turn out at the same level Republicans did.

It just came down — as it so often does —- to who showed up at the polls.