March arrived with a jolt of warmth that felt more like early summer than the start of spring. Within days, temperatures plunged again, with cold nights reminding residents that winter had not fully let go.
The swings were sharp, and they were constant.
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North Carolina logged its fourth-warmest March on record, according to the North Carolina State Climate Office, with a statewide average temperature of 56.7%. Raleigh and Charlotte each recorded one of their three warmest Marches, while some areas saw temperatures climb into the upper 80s and even 90 degrees earlier than usual.
The warmth did not hold. Mid-month, temperatures dropped into the 20s across parts of the Piedmont. By the end of the month, the heat returned again.
For many, the effect was disorienting. For scientists, it was familiar.
“It becomes more likely that you get hot temperatures at strange times of year,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central. As the planet warms, she said, “we’re shifting the odds.”
Across the United States, March temperatures ran roughly 6 to 7 degrees above normal. North Carolina’s experience fit squarely within that broader pattern, even as day-to-day conditions fluctuated dramatically.
The instability was not limited to temperature.
March was also the state’s fifth-driest on record, continuing a stretch of below-normal rainfall that dates back to last fall, according to the North Carolina State Climate Office. Most of the month’s precipitation came in just a handful of events, often as brief, heavy downpours rather than steady rain.
Scientists increasingly describe this pattern as “weather whiplash,” a rapid swing between extremes that can occur within weeks or even days.
“These wild swings between drought and flood are really emerging as a characteristic of climate change,” Dahl said. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and release it in short, intense bursts.
In North Carolina, the consequences were immediate. Dry conditions deepened across much of the state, with severe drought expanding through the Coastal Plain and extreme drought emerging in parts of the mountains. Warm temperatures and persistent wind accelerated evaporation, leaving vegetation dry and vulnerable.
By late March, fire danger had intensified enough to prompt a statewide burn ban. Wildfires broke out in the mountains and foothills, fueled in part by dry vegetation that had not yet fully greened up.
The same volatility can also heighten risks for agriculture. Early warmth can trigger crops and trees to bloom ahead of schedule, only to be damaged by a late-season freeze. Rapid swings in rainfall can complicate planting and strain water systems.
Some of the atmospheric mechanics behind these shifts can be traced to the jet stream, a fast-moving current of air that helps steer weather systems across the country. When it flows in a relatively straight line, conditions tend to change gradually. When it bends into deeper north-south waves, warm and cold air can become locked in place, producing sharper contrasts.
There is growing evidence that these patterns may be changing, though scientists say the relationship between climate change and the jet stream remains an active area of research.
What is clearer is the broader trend. Rising global temperatures are making unseasonable heat more likely and intensifying the water cycle, increasing the odds of both drought and heavy rainfall.
In North Carolina, March offered a compressed version of those shifts. Warmth arrived early and often. Rain was scarce, then sudden. Winds strengthened, fires spread and storms returned.
The month felt unsettled because, in many ways, it was.