Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.
...Special features...
Hurricane Fred is centered near 18.0n 35.0w at 11/1500 UTC or
about 640 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands drifting to the N at
1 kt. Little motion is expected over the couple of days.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained
winds have decreased to 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Further
weakening of Fred is expected. Scattered moderate/strong
convection is from 17n-20n between 31w-36w. Scattered showers
remain farther N from 20n-27n between 26w-35w.See latest NHC
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat2/wtnt22 knhc
for more details.
...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave is along 20w S of 19n moving W near 15 kt. A 1010
mb low is along the wave axis near 12n. Visible satellite
imagery and an earlier Quikscat pass confirmed the location of
the low circulation. Scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection is from 13n-17n between 20w-22w.
Tropical wave is along 80w S of 19n moving W near 18 kt. The
wave follows a maximum in deep layer moisture observed in total
precipitable water imagery. The wave has moved under moist sly
flow aloft around an upper level low over Nicaragua which has
enhanced a large cluster of numerous strong convection from
11n-16n between 81w-85w. The convection may be more associated
with upper level diffluent flow than surface convergence near
the wave.
...ITCZ...
The ITCZ axis is centered along 9n12w 8n23w 13n30w 12n40w 10n53w
9n63w. Scattered moderate convection is from 5n-10n between
20w-28w. Isolated moderate convection is within 50 nm either
side of the axis between 37w-46w.
...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
as of 1500 UTC...a 1012 mb surface low is analyzed off the Texas
coast near 27n96w. A surface trough extends through the low
center from the Louisiana coast near 30n92w to the low center
continuing to 24n98w. This system is supported by an upper level
trough forming over Mexico and Texas extending into the far W
Caribbean. Surface convergence near the surface low and trough
along with upper level diffluence between the upper trough and
an upper level ridge dominating the central Gulf are supporting
scattered showers/thunderstorms across much of the Gulf from
25n-30n W of 84w...and S of 25n W of 92w. A second surface
trough is analyzed from Fort Myers Florida near 27n82w to the
central Gulf near 26n91w continuing SW to the Bay of Campeche
near 20n95w. Surface convergence near this trough is enhancing
the aforementioned shower activity associated with the surface
low and trough in the NW Gulf a well as an area of scattered
showers/thunderstorms along the W Florida coast from 23n-27n E
of 83w. Expect showers/thunderstorms to continue as the trough
in the se and central Gulf moves NW and joins the trough in the
NW Gulf.
Caribbean Sea...
an upper level low is centered over Nicaragua near 12n84w
covering the SW Caribbean with troughing extending to the NE
across the central Gulf connecting to another upper level low N
of Puerto Rico. Upper level diffluence along the E side of the
base of the upper trough is enhancing a large cluster of
numerous showers/thunderstorms from 11n-16n between 81w-85w.
This activity is also influenced by surface convergence near a
tropical wave along 80w. Upper level ridging is across the NW
Caribbean continuing from the central Gulf. Upper diffluent flow
between this ridge and an upper level trough across the Bahamas
is supporting a few isolated showers/thunderstorms just S of
Cuba. The remainder of the central and E Caribbean is under
moderately dry air and zonal wly flow aloft. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are across much of the basin with stronger winds
near the coast of Colombia and in the E Caribbean. Expect the
wave along 80w to continue wwd and move across Central America.
Atlantic Ocean...
as of 1500 UTC...a surface trough enters the discussion area
near 32n74w continuing along 29n78w to the Florida coast near
28n80w and into the Gulf of Mexico. The trough is supported by
an upper level trough extending along 76w to the Bahamas.
Surface convergence near the trough along with upper level
diffluence between the upper trough and an upper level ridge to
the E of the trough with axis along 32n64w to 22n72w are
supporting a wide area of isolated showers/thunderstorms within
400 nm se of the trough axis. A weak surface ridge is to the E
of the surface trough anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29n61w. A
cold front dips into the area E of the surface high extending
along 32n43w 30n51w 31n55w continuing as a stationary front NW
out of the discussion area. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed
ahead of the front from 31n42w to 29n49w. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms are within 150 nm ahead of the front. A
few isolated showers are N of Puerto Rico from 19n-24n between
64w-69w in association with an upper level low near 24n65w. A
surface trough is analyzed from 21n48w to 14n50w supported by an
upper level trough extending along 32n27w 26n38w 21n49w. An
upper level ridge dominates the E and tropical Atlc centered
just off the coast of Africa near 19n20w enhancing convection
along the ITCZ and sheering the convection near Hurricane Fred.
Happy Tuesday. The heat is on! It will feel like 100° today. Hot temperatures will continue tomorrow. I'll show you why we could potentially see a heat advisory go in effect tomorrow.
Happy Tuesday. The heat is on! It will feel like 100° today. Hot temperatures will continue tomorrow. I'll show you why we could potentially see a heat advisory go in effect tomorrow.
Happy Tuesday. The heat is on! It will feel like 100° today. Hot temperatures will continue tomorrow. I'll show you why we could potentially see a heat advisory go in effect tomorrow.
I hope and pray this forecast pans out since we do need the rain. A ridge of high pressure should direct showers and storms toward us in the days ahead on a northwest flow aloft. The first complex of storms... Read More
I hope and pray this forecast pans out since we do need the rain. A ridge of high pressure should direct showers and storms toward us in the days ahead on a northwest flow aloft. The first complex of storms should arrive Wednesday. Cautiously optimistic here!
I hope and pray this forecast pans out since we do need the rain. A ridge of high pressure should direct showers and storms toward us in the days ahead on a northwest flow aloft. The first complex of storms... Read More
I hope and pray this forecast pans out since we do need the rain. A ridge of high pressure should direct showers and storms toward us in the days ahead on a northwest flow aloft. The first complex of storms should arrive Wednesday. Cautiously optimistic here!
I hope and pray this forecast pans out since we do need the rain. A ridge of high pressure should direct showers and storms toward us in the days ahead on a northwest flow aloft. The first complex of storms... Read More
I hope and pray this forecast pans out since we do need the rain. A ridge of high pressure should direct showers and storms toward us in the days ahead on a northwest flow aloft. The first complex of storms should arrive Wednesday. Cautiously optimistic here!
Heavy rain has prompted a Flood Advisory for parts of Sampson and Cumberland Counties until 10:15PM. Up to 2" of rain has fallen according to the doppler radar and up to an inch more is possible. Some minor... Read More
Heavy rain has prompted a Flood Advisory for parts of Sampson and Cumberland Counties until 10:15PM. Up to 2" of rain has fallen according to the doppler radar and up to an inch more is possible. Some minor flooding is possible in this area. Be safe!
Heavy rain has prompted a Flood Advisory for parts of Sampson and Cumberland Counties until 10:15PM. Up to 2" of rain has fallen according to the doppler radar and up to an inch more is possible. Some minor... Read More
Heavy rain has prompted a Flood Advisory for parts of Sampson and Cumberland Counties until 10:15PM. Up to 2" of rain has fallen according to the doppler radar and up to an inch more is possible. Some minor flooding is possible in this area. Be safe!
Heavy rain has prompted a Flood Advisory for parts of Sampson and Cumberland Counties until 10:15PM. Up to 2" of rain has fallen according to the doppler radar and up to an inch more is possible. Some minor... Read More
Heavy rain has prompted a Flood Advisory for parts of Sampson and Cumberland Counties until 10:15PM. Up to 2" of rain has fallen according to the doppler radar and up to an inch more is possible. Some minor flooding is possible in this area. Be safe!
Goldsboro in Wayne County is seeing a pretty good shower right now. We have scattered showers showing up on the radar that will gradually diminish into the early evening hours. Enjoy!
Goldsboro in Wayne County is seeing a pretty good shower right now. We have scattered showers showing up on the radar that will gradually diminish into the early evening hours. Enjoy!
Goldsboro in Wayne County is seeing a pretty good shower right now. We have scattered showers showing up on the radar that will gradually diminish into the early evening hours. Enjoy!
There's only a small chance for some showers and storms heading into the July 4th evening. Watch out for a few storms in the southern counties through at least 8-9PM and then dry thereafter. Be careful with... Read More
There's only a small chance for some showers and storms heading into the July 4th evening. Watch out for a few storms in the southern counties through at least 8-9PM and then dry thereafter. Be careful with fireworks since it's so dry out there!
There's only a small chance for some showers and storms heading into the July 4th evening. Watch out for a few storms in the southern counties through at least 8-9PM and then dry thereafter. Be careful with... Read More
There's only a small chance for some showers and storms heading into the July 4th evening. Watch out for a few storms in the southern counties through at least 8-9PM and then dry thereafter. Be careful with fireworks since it's so dry out there!
There's only a small chance for some showers and storms heading into the July 4th evening. Watch out for a few storms in the southern counties through at least 8-9PM and then dry thereafter. Be careful with... Read More
There's only a small chance for some showers and storms heading into the July 4th evening. Watch out for a few storms in the southern counties through at least 8-9PM and then dry thereafter. Be careful with fireworks since it's so dry out there!
It's great to see some showers and storms showing up again on the DD5K. These showers are slowly sagging to the south and will linger into the early evening hours. Most should be gone by the time the fireworks... Read More
It's great to see some showers and storms showing up again on the DD5K. These showers are slowly sagging to the south and will linger into the early evening hours. Most should be gone by the time the fireworks start. Be safe this evening!
It's great to see some showers and storms showing up again on the DD5K. These showers are slowly sagging to the south and will linger into the early evening hours. Most should be gone by the time the fireworks... Read More
It's great to see some showers and storms showing up again on the DD5K. These showers are slowly sagging to the south and will linger into the early evening hours. Most should be gone by the time the fireworks start. Be safe this evening!
It's great to see some showers and storms showing up again on the DD5K. These showers are slowly sagging to the south and will linger into the early evening hours. Most should be gone by the time the fireworks... Read More
It's great to see some showers and storms showing up again on the DD5K. These showers are slowly sagging to the south and will linger into the early evening hours. Most should be gone by the time the fireworks start. Be safe this evening!
Earth is at aphelion, the furthest point from the Sun in its not-quite-circular orbit, on July 4, 2022. On January 4 we'll be 3.1 million miles closer at... Read More
Earth is at aphelion, the furthest point from the Sun in its not-quite-circular orbit, on July 4, 2022. On January 4 we'll be 3.1 million miles closer at perihelion.
Earth is at aphelion, the furthest point from the Sun in its not-quite-circular orbit, on July 4, 2022. On January 4 we'll be 3.1 million miles closer at... Read More
Earth is at aphelion, the furthest point from the Sun in its not-quite-circular orbit, on July 4, 2022. On January 4 we'll be 3.1 million miles closer at perihelion.
Earth is at aphelion, the furthest point from the Sun in its not-quite-circular orbit, on July 4, 2022. On January 4 we'll be 3.1 million miles closer at... Read More
Earth is at aphelion, the furthest point from the Sun in its not-quite-circular orbit, on July 4, 2022. On January 4 we'll be 3.1 million miles closer at perihelion.
Happy 4th of July! Keep the water bottle with you throughout the day. Highs will top in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible southwest of I-40. On WRAL News, I will show you how hot... Read More
Happy 4th of July! Keep the water bottle with you throughout the day. Highs will top in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible southwest of I-40. On WRAL News, I will show you how hot temperatures will feel.
Happy 4th of July! Keep the water bottle with you throughout the day. Highs will top in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible southwest of I-40. On WRAL News, I will show you how hot... Read More
Happy 4th of July! Keep the water bottle with you throughout the day. Highs will top in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible southwest of I-40. On WRAL News, I will show you how hot temperatures will feel.
Happy 4th of July! Keep the water bottle with you throughout the day. Highs will top in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible southwest of I-40. On WRAL News, I will show you how hot... Read More
Happy 4th of July! Keep the water bottle with you throughout the day. Highs will top in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be possible southwest of I-40. On WRAL News, I will show you how hot temperatures will feel.
Severe thunderstorms and soaking rainfall will be possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. I am going to time out our storm chances this morning on WRAL News.
Severe thunderstorms and soaking rainfall will be possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. I am going to time out our storm chances this morning on WRAL News.
Severe thunderstorms and soaking rainfall will be possible this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding cannot be ruled out. I am going to time out our storm chances this morning on WRAL News.
PASS ALONG: Remnants of Colin are moving away from N.C. The rip current threat remains elevated. Please be safe and swim in front of a lifeguard today.
PASS ALONG: Remnants of Colin are moving away from N.C. The rip current threat remains elevated. Please be safe and swim in front of a lifeguard today.
PASS ALONG: Remnants of Colin are moving away from N.C. The rip current threat remains elevated. Please be safe and swim in front of a lifeguard today.
Happy Sunday!! Did you get invited to the cookout?
The earlier you head out there, the better! Showers and severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I will let you know when you need to wrap up... Read More
Happy Sunday!! Did you get invited to the cookout?
The earlier you head out there, the better! Showers and severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I will let you know when you need to wrap up the BBQ and head indoors on @WRAL.
Happy Sunday!! Did you get invited to the cookout?
The earlier you head out there, the better! Showers and severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I will let you know when you need to wrap up... Read More
Happy Sunday!! Did you get invited to the cookout?
The earlier you head out there, the better! Showers and severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I will let you know when you need to wrap up the BBQ and head indoors on @WRAL.
Happy Sunday!! Did you get invited to the cookout?
The earlier you head out there, the better! Showers and severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I will let you know when you need to wrap up... Read More
Happy Sunday!! Did you get invited to the cookout?
The earlier you head out there, the better! Showers and severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. I will let you know when you need to wrap up the BBQ and head indoors on @WRAL.
Today will not be a washout. We have a small chance of rain. Tomorrow, expect a better chance of showers and storms by the afternoon. Some could be strong to severe. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible.
Today will not be a washout. We have a small chance of rain. Tomorrow, expect a better chance of showers and storms by the afternoon. Some could be strong to severe. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible.
Today will not be a washout. We have a small chance of rain. Tomorrow, expect a better chance of showers and storms by the afternoon. Some could be strong to severe. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible.
NEW THIS MORNING Tropical Storm Colin formed along the coast of South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for N.C.
Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding through Sunday morning.... Read More
NEW THIS MORNING Tropical Storm Colin formed along the coast of South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for N.C.
Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding through Sunday morning. I'll go over the impacts on WRAL News at 9:30 am.
NEW THIS MORNING Tropical Storm Colin formed along the coast of South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for N.C.
Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding through Sunday morning.... Read More
NEW THIS MORNING Tropical Storm Colin formed along the coast of South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for N.C.
Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding through Sunday morning. I'll go over the impacts on WRAL News at 9:30 am.
NEW THIS MORNING Tropical Storm Colin formed along the coast of South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for N.C.
Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding through Sunday morning.... Read More
NEW THIS MORNING Tropical Storm Colin formed along the coast of South Carolina. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for N.C.
Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding through Sunday morning. I'll go over the impacts on WRAL News at 9:30 am.
Bonnie has made landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border with top winds of 50 mph. It will make its way into the Pacific over the weekend and take on a new name, Darby. It's expected to become a hurricane... Read More
Bonnie has made landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border with top winds of 50 mph. It will make its way into the Pacific over the weekend and take on a new name, Darby. It's expected to become a hurricane next week.
Bonnie has made landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border with top winds of 50 mph. It will make its way into the Pacific over the weekend and take on a new name, Darby. It's expected to become a hurricane... Read More
Bonnie has made landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border with top winds of 50 mph. It will make its way into the Pacific over the weekend and take on a new name, Darby. It's expected to become a hurricane next week.
Bonnie has made landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border with top winds of 50 mph. It will make its way into the Pacific over the weekend and take on a new name, Darby. It's expected to become a hurricane... Read More
Bonnie has made landfall at the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border with top winds of 50 mph. It will make its way into the Pacific over the weekend and take on a new name, Darby. It's expected to become a hurricane next week.
With that tropical disturbance off the South Carolina coast and moving to the northeast, the rip current risk has gone up with many beaches facing a high rip current threat Saturday. This will likely be the case... Read More
With that tropical disturbance off the South Carolina coast and moving to the northeast, the rip current risk has gone up with many beaches facing a high rip current threat Saturday. This will likely be the case for the entire holiday weekend. Be safe
With that tropical disturbance off the South Carolina coast and moving to the northeast, the rip current risk has gone up with many beaches facing a high rip current threat Saturday. This will likely be the case... Read More
With that tropical disturbance off the South Carolina coast and moving to the northeast, the rip current risk has gone up with many beaches facing a high rip current threat Saturday. This will likely be the case for the entire holiday weekend. Be safe
With that tropical disturbance off the South Carolina coast and moving to the northeast, the rip current risk has gone up with many beaches facing a high rip current threat Saturday. This will likely be the case... Read More
With that tropical disturbance off the South Carolina coast and moving to the northeast, the rip current risk has gone up with many beaches facing a high rip current threat Saturday. This will likely be the case for the entire holiday weekend. Be safe
Sunday could be an active day with showers and storms along with a Level 1 risk for severe storms. Some of the storms could have damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. We could see some localized flooding with any... Read More
Sunday could be an active day with showers and storms along with a Level 1 risk for severe storms. Some of the storms could have damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. We could see some localized flooding with any of the storms that day.
Sunday could be an active day with showers and storms along with a Level 1 risk for severe storms. Some of the storms could have damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. We could see some localized flooding with any... Read More
Sunday could be an active day with showers and storms along with a Level 1 risk for severe storms. Some of the storms could have damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. We could see some localized flooding with any of the storms that day.
Sunday could be an active day with showers and storms along with a Level 1 risk for severe storms. Some of the storms could have damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. We could see some localized flooding with any... Read More
Sunday could be an active day with showers and storms along with a Level 1 risk for severe storms. Some of the storms could have damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. We could see some localized flooding with any of the storms that day.
Sunday features our best rain chances as a cold front approaches the state. We have a low end risk for localized flooding as well with some slow moving storms.
Sunday features our best rain chances as a cold front approaches the state. We have a low end risk for localized flooding as well with some slow moving storms.
Sunday features our best rain chances as a cold front approaches the state. We have a low end risk for localized flooding as well with some slow moving storms.
All the showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and are having a hard time making it into the Triangle. The rain should stay with us through about 8PM or so. More rain chances this weekend with Sunday... Read More
All the showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and are having a hard time making it into the Triangle. The rain should stay with us through about 8PM or so. More rain chances this weekend with Sunday looking to be the wettest.
All the showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and are having a hard time making it into the Triangle. The rain should stay with us through about 8PM or so. More rain chances this weekend with Sunday... Read More
All the showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and are having a hard time making it into the Triangle. The rain should stay with us through about 8PM or so. More rain chances this weekend with Sunday looking to be the wettest.
All the showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and are having a hard time making it into the Triangle. The rain should stay with us through about 8PM or so. More rain chances this weekend with Sunday... Read More
All the showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and are having a hard time making it into the Triangle. The rain should stay with us through about 8PM or so. More rain chances this weekend with Sunday looking to be the wettest.
We've been watching this area for the past couple of days and now the NHC is too. There's a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as this system drifts to the northeast. This means rain for our... Read More
We've been watching this area for the past couple of days and now the NHC is too. There's a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as this system drifts to the northeast. This means rain for our coastal areas through the weekend.
We've been watching this area for the past couple of days and now the NHC is too. There's a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as this system drifts to the northeast. This means rain for our... Read More
We've been watching this area for the past couple of days and now the NHC is too. There's a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as this system drifts to the northeast. This means rain for our coastal areas through the weekend.
We've been watching this area for the past couple of days and now the NHC is too. There's a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as this system drifts to the northeast. This means rain for our... Read More
We've been watching this area for the past couple of days and now the NHC is too. There's a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours as this system drifts to the northeast. This means rain for our coastal areas through the weekend.