WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

Web Weather Extra: Ensemble forecasts

Posted January 13, 2011 1:14 p.m. EST

If you watch WRAL regularly, you've no doubt heard us talk about "ensemble forecasts".  But what does that mean?

Instead of relying on one single computer model, we tweak a model (or group of models) to represent the uncertainty inherent in how we observe and model the atmosphere.  Why is this useful and how does it help us provide better forecasts?  I recently sat down with Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel to talk about the advantages of ensemble model forecasting.