WRAL WeatherCenter Blog

Hurricane forecasters trim forecast

Posted August 4, 2009 5:19 p.m. EDT
Updated August 4, 2009 5:23 p.m. EDT

The Colorado State University forecasting group led by Dr. William Gray and Dr. Philip Klotzbach has issued its latest forecast for the 2009 hurricane season.  In a nutshell, they still a expect a nearly-normal hurricane season, in terms of numbers:

2009 Colorado State Hurricane Forecast
Named Storms10
Major Hurricanes2

They place primary blame on a less-than-favorable wind shear environment due to the growing El Niño in the Pacific for the dip in the forecast.

(Just a reminder — just because a season may be "normal" or "below normal" doesn't mean the storms themselves will be weaker.  By all accounts, 1992 was a "below normal" season in terms of these kinds of numbers, but Hurricane Andrew's impact was certainly not "below normal".)

By the way, if you've never read through the forecast itself, it's a really interesting read.  It's not as technical as you might expect, and it's really interesting how they come up with their final numbers.