Despite the calendar saying May, it certainly will not feel that way over the next few days. Unseasonably cool weather will dominate our forecast perhaps for the entire week and into part of the weekend.
The Jet Stream pattern in the coming week signals cooler and perhaps wetter weather as we reach Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately the computer models we monitor are not at all in consensus.
High pressure in the near-term builds in upon us. The air mass is cooler and drier and you will feel that Tuesday and Wednesday(should be some awesome Spring weather). The high should set itself just to our north across the Mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday. This should continue a feed of cooler and (by mid-week) moist air off the Atlantic. By Wednesday we should notice a bit of an increase in cloud cover.
The trouble in the models comes in the placement of a surface low that looks to either develop in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Atlantic off the Florida coast. Some models carry that deep moisture(low) across North Carolina by the end of the week giving us a soaking and others have it remaining offshore. If the first scenario is the one that occurs, we will see the warmer, moist air from the low override the cooler air at the surface across North Carolina. With that relatively drier air upon us from the high pressure system to our north, evaporative cooling would take place and the rain would be a chilly one by Friday.
Which will be the true scenario and path of the storm? Stay tuned...