Thursday we notice an approach of a cold front. We have higher heat today and higher humidity along with partly cloudy skies. The front may be close enough to us in the afternoon to help spark a few late day storms. They may be confined more to the north and west of the Triangle. You will want to switch on the air conditioning today.
Friday the cold front moves in. There will be enough forcing with the front to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. The severe weather parameters are quite high on one of our models today. We will be on the look out for the storms to become strong or even severe this afternoon and evening.
Now as we head into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the models definitively diverge on their thinking of what happens. One of our domestic model keeps a cut off area of low pressure over the state, helping to create showers and storms through each afternoon into the weekend. basically the model wants to stall Friday's system upon us and keep a stormy pattern going. Other models keep the system progressive and move it on out leaving us partly cloudy over the holiday. Why can't a forecast ever be easy? All I can saw is stayed tuned and wait for the changes!