A Return to Heat, A Return to Storms!

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So far the month of May has been quite comfortable with tame heat and ample rainfall for most of us. Well in the coming days at least one of those conditions I mentioned will change. We are heading into the unofficial start of summer this weekend and it will be as if someone flipped a switch, turning on the summertime heat and humidity!

Now meteorologically speaking we consider June 1st the beginning of summer. It is also by the way the start of the 2006 hurricane season. So it seems rather appropriate then that we will start feeling like the season by the end of this week.

As of today high pressure is still to our northwest. It has been a comfy air mass. Low heat and low humidity, but as you see in the graphic above, by tomorrow afternoon the high quickly shifts offshore directing a southwesterly wind into the area. Wednesday will see an increase in heat and a small rise in humidity. We will consider Wednesday the transition day. We will transition from the Spring feel into Summer weather Thursday.

Thursday we notice an approach of a cold front. We have higher heat today and higher humidity along with partly cloudy skies. The front may be close enough to us in the afternoon to help spark a few late day storms. They may be confined more to the north and west of the Triangle. You will want to switch on the air conditioning today.

Friday the cold front moves in. There will be enough forcing with the front to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. The severe weather parameters are quite high on one of our models today. We will be on the look out for the storms to become strong or even severe this afternoon and evening.

Now as we head into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, the models definitively diverge on their thinking of what happens. One of our domestic model keeps a cut off area of low pressure over the state, helping to create showers and storms through each afternoon into the weekend. basically the model wants to stall Friday's system upon us and keep a stormy pattern going. Other models keep the system progressive and move it on out leaving us partly cloudy over the holiday. Why can't a forecast ever be easy? All I can saw is stayed tuned and wait for the changes!