Trump's rising popularity is bad news for Dems in California House races

Chronicle staff report

SAN FRANCISCO -- All that talk of a Democratic blue wave sweeping congressional races in California could be for naught if a new poll is on target: It shows President Trump's approval rating surging to 50 percent in Orange County, site of four tight races that could determine if Republicans hold the House.

A more popular Trump is bad news for Democrats, who are trying to grab seven GOP-held congressional districts statewide that Hillary Clinton won in 2016, including the four in Orange County. That would give Democrats a big jump on their goal of flipping 23 seats nationally to regain the House.

Democrats are banking on the president's unpopularity to help them win those seats. In April, the nonpartisan Berkeley IGS Poll indicated that Trump had just 38 percent support in Orange County. A March poll from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California indicated that a mere 36 percent of all adults in Orange and San Diego counties approved of the president.

Two months ago, Republican pollster John Thomas did a survey in Orange County that found Trump's approval rating at 43 percent. But last week, his poll of 450 likely voters in the county showed that 50 percent of respondents viewed the president favorably. The margin of error was three percentage points.

One reason for the Trump uptick in the OC is that the number of voters who believe the country is on the right track has grown 10 percentage points over the past two months, Thomas said. He is advising Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson, who is running for the House seat held by soon-to-be retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton.

``If that holds and the trend line continues, '' Thomas said, ``then it's buh-bye blue wave.''

Other surveys have found high approval for Trump's handling of the economy, which historically is a good indicator of overall satisfaction with a president's performance. A CBS News poll released Sunday showed that 68 percent of the adults surveyed thought Trump's policies ``were responsible for the current state of the economy.''

But organizers for NextGen America, a progressive organization funded by billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, believe a Democratic sweep in November is still possible. The group is spending $350,000 to try to turn out 200,000 voters ages 18 to 35 in the four targeted Orange County districts.

NextGen America is focusing on turning out people who don't typically vote in midterm elections. Statewide, only 3.7 percent of voters between ages 18 and 25 voted in the 2014 California primary, according to a UC Davis study.

``There's nowhere to go but up,'' said Ben Wessel, NextGen's deputy political director.

While Thomas' poll may have shown Trump's popularity rising among likely voters, Wessel said, ``we don't spend a lot of time talking to likely voters. And among the people we're talking to, I can tell you anecdotally that his approval rating is more like 5 percent.''