Trump and Mexico’s New Leader, Both Headstrong, Begin With a ‘Good Conversation’

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump reached out to Mexico’s new populist president-elect on Monday in an early, but potentially short-lived, show of détente, saying the two leaders engaged in a “good conversation” about border security and the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The two countries remain locked in a heated dispute over the fraught issues of immigration and trade, areas that may face difficult complications from the election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leader known for being as strong-headed and nationalist-minded as Trump — and just as willing to engage in a public clash of ideas.

López Obrador, who has said Mexico will not be a “piñata” for foreign governments, has said he will stand up to Trump to protect his country’s interests. And he may find himself under pressure by an electorate that, weary of Trump’s hectoring and disparaging comments about Mexico, will demand that he cede no ground, leaving little room to manage the relationship.

“There are going to be so many opportunities for this to go wrong,” said Duncan Wood, the director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. “If there are too many provocations, if there are too many insults against Mexico, López Obrador will not be able to just sit back and take it. His character shows that he will respond, and that could lead us down a dark path.”

Relations between Mexico and the United States are already tense, particularly over trade and the future of NAFTA, which has enabled companies to create critical supply chains across North America. Talks to revise the trade pact among Mexico, the United States and Canada have stalled over dramatic changes proposed by the Trump administration, including altering protections for investors and rules for manufacturing automobiles in North America.

López Obrador has been a longtime critic of the 1994 trade pact and has given no indication he will be more willing to accommodate Trump’s demands than the current Mexican government. Among other things, López Obrador has blamed NAFTA for triggering an influx of grain from the United States that ultimately forced Mexican farmers off their land.

But López Obrador has pledged to continue to renegotiate NAFTA — a promise that could ultimately put him in the position of defending the trade agreement against the frequent criticisms of Trump, who has called it the “worst” trade deal in history and blamed Mexico for siphoning off U.S. jobs. López Obrador’s advisers have said they will start working with the current NAFTA negotiators soon to ensure a smooth transition when the new administration takes office on Dec. 1. The president-elect has also taken a far more critical view than his predecessor of corporations — which have among the most to win or lose with a revised NAFTA. He has long criticized the role of multinational corporations in Mexico and once promised to turn the presidential palace into a public park. He has promised to review dozens of outstanding oil and gas exploration contracts for corruption, potentially delaying hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investment. His election has put the value of the peso and Mexican government bonds on a more volatile path.

During the campaign, López Obrador and his advisers worked to reassure voters and industry that he would provide continuity for the private sector.

Known as an anti-establishment candidate, López Obrador is a divisive figure with Trump’s flair for capturing attention. After a failed bid for the presidency in 2006 against Felipe Calderón, López Obrador held a faux inauguration ceremony, appointed a shadow Cabinet and protested in the middle of the capital for weeks.

Trump and López Obrador spoke for 30 minutes Monday morning after the latter’s landslide victory Sunday night. The call came just hours after Trump congratulated López Obrador in a rare, friendly tweet that said: “I look very much forward to working with him.”

The incoming Mexican president in turn pledged never to “disrespect” the U.S. government. In a tweet of his own, López Obrador said there was “respectful treatment” on the call.

Any period of gracious talk may be short lived, however, with Trump almost certain to continue his tirade about the 2,000-mile border with Mexico, and López Obrador virtually guaranteed to fire back in ways that his predecessors did not. López Obrador “has committed to a louder, more combative posture with the U.S.,” said Carlos M. Gutiérrez, the former secretary of commerce under President George W. Bush. “He’s getting ready to take it up a notch.”

Trump campaigned for the presidency by demanding a wall across the southern border and suggesting that people being “sent” from Mexico into the United States are “bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.”

More recently, Trump has escalated his language against Mexico, accusing Democrats in a tweet of wanting “illegal immigrants, no matter how bad they may be, to pour into and infest our Country, like MS-13.”

Enrique Peña Nieto, the outgoing Mexican president, has objected to the construction of a wall — and insisted that Mexico would not pay for one if it was built — but repeatedly tried to avoid messy diplomatic confrontations with his U.S. counterpart. López Obrador is sure to be less restrained. In a speech last year, he railed against Trump’s government.

“When they want to build a wall to segregate populations, or when the word ‘foreigner’ is used to insult, denigrate and discriminate against our fellow human beings, it goes against humanity, it goes against intelligence and against history,” López Obrador said.

“López Obrador’s initial reaction will be to try to find a way to work with Trump rather than attacking Trump,” said Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican diplomat who served in the United States and China. “If there’s a chill cast on the relationship, it will be on Trump. If he does, López Obrador will easily run away from the United States.”

Diplomatic and financial relations between Mexico and the United States run deep, and the two have quietly continued to work closely together on a range of matters critical to their mutual well-being, including security, trade and migration. That is expected to continue despite the seismic shift in Mexican leadership.

Chrystia Freeland, the Canadian foreign minister, was also optimistic about the ongoing negotiations on NAFTA on Friday, saying that talks would “really be moving into high gear” now that the Mexican election was concluded.

But with major obstacles remaining and no time left for the sitting Congress to pass a deal, trade experts say negotiations seem likely to drag into 2019. In an interview broadcast Sunday on Fox News, Trump said he wanted to wait to conclude the deal until after the midterm elections.

“I could sign it tomorrow, but I’m not happy with it,” Trump said. “I want to make it more fair, OK?”

The fate of the pact could be further complicated if Democrats gain congressional seats in November, given long-standing concerns by many in the party about the pact and its effect on U.S. jobs and wages.

The finer points of López Obrador’s views on NAFTA remain to be seen, but analysts say he is likely to toughen Mexico’s defense of its agriculture — an issue that he sees as linked to migration from Mexico to the United States.

Manuel Pérez-Rocha, an associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, said López Obrador believed that failed economic policies championed by the United States but also Mexican elites were one of the main causes of Mexicans being pushed off farms and on the path to immigration to the United States.

“He really doesn’t want to criticize NAFTA too much, because that would put him at odds with the business community and investors,” Pérez-Rocha said. “But what he’s all about is strengthening the internal economy to focus on Mexico’s jobs and the countryside.” The leaders may also find more room for compromise on the need to raise salaries in the Mexican auto industry, an area where the Trump administration has concurred with Democrats, but clashed with the current government of Mexico.