Tighter GOP grip on North Carolina legislature, high court limits Democrats' options

The political landscape in North Carolina tilted further toward Republicans in Tuesday’s elections, giving the party control of the state Supreme Court, a larger majority in the state House and a supermajority in the state Senate for the final two years of Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s second term.

Through years of divided government between the governor and Republican majorities in the state legislature, Cooper has relied on party members in the legislature to sustain his vetoes. And a Democratic majority on the state Supreme Court has stalled other parts of the GOP agenda, specifically around redistricting, voter identification and school funding.

But Republican legislative and judicial gains on Tuesday — the GOP swept four statewide appellate judge races, too — could weaken Cooper and Democrats’ ability to shape policy debates in the same manner. Hot-button social issues such as abortion, transgender rights and school curriculum could move to the fore under more solid Republican control.

“This election has been a barometer of where voters want their state and country to go,” state Senate Leader Phil Berger said in a statement late Tuesday night.

As Republicans have done throughout the campaign particularly after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion decision that granted women the Constitutional right to abortion, Berger downplayed social issues and focused on other priorities for his supermajority.

“The Republican platform of lower taxes, job creation, expanded parental choice and quality education is one that reflects the needs of all North Carolinians,” Berger said. “Our promise to the people of North Carolina is that the Senate Republican supermajority will continue to deliver on those priorities.”

Senate Republicans won 30 seats in the 50-member chamber, up from their previous 28-seat majority. In the House, Republicans won 71 seats in the 120-member chamber, two more than they previously held and just one shy of the 60% threshold needed to override gubernatorial vetoes without any support from the other party. That small victory offered Cooper and Democrats a bit of solace.

“North Carolinians voted for balance and progress,” Cooper wrote on Twitter on Tuesday night. “I’ll continue to work with this legislature to support a growing economy, more clean energy, better health care and strong public schools.”

Despite large differences, Cooper and Republican lawmakers have reached several big deals in recent years, including on energy policy and the budget. They stood shoulder-to-shoulder to announce new jobs in North Carolina, dismissing concerns about legislation that corporations might deem problematic. There is bipartisan agreement about expanding Medicaid, as well, though a final deal has yet to be reached.

“If we see a healthy majority but not a supermajority, I think we’re going to see much of what we’ve seen in recent years: The Republicans using the kinds of legislative action that are not subject to gubernatorial veto, redistricting and local bills,” said Chris Cooper, the director of the Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University. “That will be where the action is. The state courts are less likely to put the breaks on redistricting.”

With such a narrow margin, however, House Democrats could face pressure or be given incentives by Republicans to override a Cooper veto. Or Republicans could schedule override votes when some Democrats are not present in the House. Several Democrats worked with Republicans in the legislature to end a long-running budget stalemate between Cooper and Republican leaders. The budget included millions for projects in those Democrats’ districts.

In his first two years, Cooper vetoed 28 pieces of legislation and Republican supermajorities overrode 23 of them. But since Democrats broke the GOP supermajorities in the 2018 election, none of Cooper’s 57 vetoes have been overridden. That mark could be in jeopardy moving forward.

While Democrats, if they stick together, can thwart overrides, they more clearly lost power at the state’s highest court. It was just three years ago that Democrats held a 6-1 edge on the court. And entering Tuesday’s elections, Democrats had a 4-3 majority on the Supreme Court. But Republican victories give GOP judges a 5-2 partisan advantage on the court, which seems likely to again take up the long-running Leandro education funding case as well as cases around redistricting and, potentially, abortion rights.

“When Republicans did have supermajorities, from my perspective, Democrats tried to achieve their policy proposals through the courts,” said Republican strategist Pat Ryan, who previously worked for Berger. “The only difference will be that that avenue will no longer be available to Democrats to achieve their policy objectives.”

Democrats have warned that Republican supermajorities would cater to “the worst impulses” of the far-right.

“The worst impulses are limiting the rights of North Carolinians,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, who has worked with Cooper previously. “The culture wars will be coming back to North Carolina and that’s something we don’t need. Because of Cooper’s veto, we have been able to keep the legislature away from its worst impulses the last couple years.”

But Republicans, who have controlled both chambers of the state legislature since after the 2010 elections, pointed to their previous policy positions as a road map for where a supermajority may go next. Both Berger and House Speaker Tim Moore have said they do not favor outright bans on abortion, as some other Republican-led states have pushed. But there could be moves to increase vouchers for students to attend private schools, an effort to ban affirmative action at state universities and colleges and more funding for workforce development.

“Sen. Berger has been consistent for a long time,” Ryan said. “He prioritizes cutting taxes as low as they can go and expanding school choice. Things we’ve heard for many years. I don’t think there is some drastic sea change.”

Moore and Berger said they plan to discuss a few controversial topics next session, like abortion restrictions, critical race theory, voter identification and a parental bill of rights. They wouldn’t say yet whether they’ll advance new laws or what those might look like.

"The issue is something that's important to the voters and it's something that is important to a number of our members," Berger said. "That that are returning and we'll see how that plays out as we go forward."

Even with the move toward more GOP power, attention will turn quickly to 2024.

“It’s coming very fast,” Jackson said.

Cooper is term-limited and cannot run for governor again. Lawmakers must redraw the congressional boundaries yet again, which could position Moore for a run for U.S. Congress.

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who presides over the Senate, has all but announced a bid for governor. Attorney General Josh Stein is eager to run on the Democratic side. A U.S. Supreme Court decision in a North Carolina case about the state legislature’s authority over federal elections could also upend political dynamic in the state.

It’s also a presidential year, perhaps offering Democrats hope of making gains in the state legislature.

Said Jackson: “Real growth comes in the presidential cycle.”