'The overall risk of recession hasn't changed': Economists, Raleigh business owner react to US economy's growth last quarter

The economic rebound in the last quarter makes many people wonder if we're out of the woods when it comes to a recession.

WRAL News asked two economists and a small business owner about the numbers they're watching to see where things are heading.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate from July through September, according to estimate from the Commerce Department. It snapped two straight quarters of contraction and overcoming high inflation and interest rates just as voting begins in midterm elections in which the economy's health has emerged as a paramount issue.

Jeff Hastings, the owner of Burke Brothers Hardware at 5227 Hillsborough St. in Raleigh, told WRAL News he looks at all the numbers, including the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rates and interest rates.

Hastings said he wakes up between 4:30 a.m. and 5 a.m. on weekdays to begin to look at financial forecasts.

“I want to be ahead of the curve and not behind,” he said.

Changes in the economy impact Hastings’ supply, prices and how much customers are spending at the 86-year-old hardware store.

“It’s just the economic parameters as a whole and how we can mitigate that for our little corner of the world,” Hastings said.

Like a lot of small business owners and budgeting families, Hastings hopes for signs of a growing economy, which shows in the third quarter GDP. The latest GDP report shows a swing to a growing economy in the third quarter, after two back-to-back quarters of a downturn.

Chapel Hill-based Morgan Creek Capital Management chief investment officer Mark Yusko said growth in the GDP is a positive, but it was mostly because of a jump in exports from our country's oil reserves.

“The reality is, that growth is probably not as robust as indicated by the number because it’s mostly driven by this abnormally large exporting of oil,” Yusko said.

The GDP shows a slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market.

Duke economist Campbell Harvey said we're not out of danger of a recession.

“The overall risk of recession hasn’t really changed just because we’ve got one positive quarter and the first two quarters were negative,” Harvey said.

On Friday, U.S. core inflation numbers could offer a better picture of the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike trajectory.

Next week, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again, which will affect how much money people and businesses can borrow.