The great opening-up gamble is about to begin

Battlefield commanders understand that decisions delivered in extreme conditions often require a purchasing of incremental benefits with the loss of human life. The world's national, regional and local politicians now face this question: How much new infection and death is acceptable while easing coronavirus lockdowns to head off Great Depression-style misery?

The choice is especially stark in the United States since because of government neglect, the kind of blanket testing needed to isolate new infections is not in place. Some states getting back to business don't even satisfy lax White House recommendations that new cases should decline for 14 consecutive days before opening is considered.

But you can now get a haircut in Georgia or head to the beach in Florida. Even in New York state, where at least 22,000 are dead from the virus, factories may start firing up next month. Texas is back online from Friday. Airports are reporting more travelers and more little car icons are crawling over the Uber app.

From Israel to Italy, Hong Kong to Spain and France to star pupil New Zealand, governments are polishing plans to ease lockdowns. But reflecting the leaders' dilemma, Britain's reemerging Prime Minister Boris Johnson rebuffed Conservative Party colleagues calling for an end to the lockdown, using political capital won by his own tough battle with Covid-19. Chancellor Angela Merkel, cautious as ever, warned we are on the "thinnest of ice" — and on Tuesday the reproductive rate of the virus rose in Germany — raising fears of a second stay-at-home order.

Until there's a vaccine or a curative therapy, leaders will need to manipulate this life-and-death switch. If infections rise, restrictions may clamp back on.

Science would suggest keeping stay-at-home restrictions in place for many months longer. But lockdowns and job losses are already brewing political unrest in many places, and we are yet to see the worst of the pandemic's economic blight.

Governments must hope that hospitals, health workers and medical stocks can stand a possible coronavirus rebound in a much more vulnerable brand of daily life.

The great opening-up gamble is about to begin.