The case Kavanaugh has to make and his slim margin of error

He won't be able to invoke Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, or any version of her cautious 1993 testimony, this time.

Thursday's hearing is not about the law. It's about his life. And the 53-year-old lawyer with sterling professional credentials will have to make a case for himself unlike at any other time.

The personal defense Kavanaugh offers on Thursday will likely not only determine whether he can eke out confirmation from a Senate controlled by Republicans 51-49, but how the public and history book ultimately regard the jurist who once appeared on a swift path to confirmation.

Kavanaugh is ready to present himself as indignant and personally harmed, a victim who will not be driven out by politics. In 1991, when Clarence Thomas saw a "high tech lynching" in Anita Hill's sexual harassment accusations, Kavanaugh sees, according to his prepared testimony, "last-minute smears, pure and simple."

Yet, Kavanaugh confronts more serious allegations than Thomas and a trickier personal situation in claims arising from an alcohol-fueled party scene of his youth.

Christine Blasey Ford, now a Palo Alto University professor, has alleged that a drunken Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her at a party when they were teenagers in suburban Washington. According to her prepared testimony, she will lay out how she walked up a narrow set of stairs to reach a bathroom when she was pushed into a bedroom and attacked.

When Ford's allegation first became public on September 16, Kavanaugh categorically denied it and said he would never be at such a party. In a Monday interview with Fox News, Kavanaugh spoke in generalities about the drinking culture of his high school years at Georgetown Prep: "Yes, people might have had too many beers on occasion," he said. "I think all of us have done things we look back on in high school and regret or cringe a bit."

In his prepared testimony for Thursday, Kavanaugh is acknowledging more personal failings.

"I drank beer with my friends, usually on weekend. Sometimes I had too many. In retrospect, I said and did things in high school that make me cringe today," he stated.

Senators are likely to press Kavanaugh exactly on that, as well as his continued assertion that he has always treated women with respect.

All Democrats are likely to level tough questions and look for holes in his defense, yet based on their own records in the law, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kamala Harris of California could be among his most unyielding opponents.

Ford claims Kavanaugh pinned her on a bed, groped her and tried to remove her clothing. She says she believed he would rape her and that as she tried to scream, Kavanaugh covered her mouth with his hand. She said she escaped the room when another teen jumped on them and all three fell to the floor.

Since her allegations surfaced, two other women have come forward with claims of inappropriate sexual behavior. Deborah Ramirez, who attended Yale University as an undergraduate with Kavanaugh, told The New Yorker magazine that Kavanaugh exposed himself to her at a dormitory party.

Then in a signed declaration that became public on Wednesday, Julie Swetnick, who grew up in Maryland near Kavanaugh, said he drank excessively and engaged in sexually aggressive behavior at high school parties.

Kavanaugh has denied those claims and deemed Swetnick's "ridiculous and from the Twilight Zone."

For six years, before his appointment to a Washington-based US appeals court in 2006, Kavanagh served in the George W. Bush administration and often helping to prepare other judicial candidates before senators.

He would understand the importance of appearing credible at this point. His testimony will follow Ford's, which, depending on how persuasive she is, could weaken his ability to defend himself.

Even at the outset of the confirmation process, Democratic senators questioned Kavanaugh's veracity -- based on his congressional testimony years earlier -- and he faced the lowest public opinion rating for a Supreme Court nominee in three decades.

Like President Donald Trump has done when speaking of his nomination, Kavanaugh is ready to paint himself as a victim of politics. Trump has nominated him to the pivotal seat on the bench held by centrist conservative Justice Anthony Kennedy.

"There has been a frenzy to come up with something -- anything, no matter how far-fetched or odious -- that will block a vote on my nomination," Kavanaugh said in his prepared testimony.

As a student of confirmation fights going back decades, Kavanaugh would also be aware that if it is a draw, if neither he nor Ford is markedly more convincing, it could fall back on senators' own personal political calculations, a mix of factors against the backdrop of the national #MeToo movement but more importantly the atmosphere in their states and their own political prospects.

Twenty-seven years ago, Thomas told senators that Hill's accusations had nearly destroyed him. Yet, in the end, he won confirmation, by a vote of 52-48, the closest Supreme Court vote in more than a century.