Weather

System brewing in Gulf of Mexico could bring NC thunderstorms this week

A system in the Bay of Campeche, in the Gulf of Mexico, has a 70% chance of developing in the next couple days.

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WRAL Severe Weather Center

A system in the Bay of Campeche, in the Gulf of Mexico, has a 70% chance of developing in the next couple days.

If the system develops into a tropical depression, it would be named Claudette.

WRAL's weather team is monitoring a system in the Bay of Campeche. There's a 70% chance for development in the next 2 days

Both the American and European model showed the system heading into Texas and Louisiana.

Remnants of the storm could hit North Carolina on Sunday or Monday. As the week goes on, models will become more precise in predicting the local impacts of this system.

"No significant updates or track shifts are expected but the longer track will likely extend to include more of North Carolina," WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell said. "A trend Mike [Maze] noticed in the models tonight was a subtle shift south on the heaviest rainfall totals. This could mean heavier rain for the Sandhills and Fayetteville and lower totals from the Triangle northward. We will need to monitor the tornado risk as well. Areas to the right of the remnant low (wr.t. direction of travel) would have a risk for isolated tornadoes. The late night time frame may help to limit this potential."

Our best chance of rain from the system will be on Monday, WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said.

"Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for parts of the Gulf Coast soon," Campbell said. It is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon. This means that the system is not yet a tropical depression or storm but it will become one soon. It will impact land soon enough that warnings need to be issued in advance.​"

Path of the storm

A wave moving off the coast of Africa has a small chance of developing within the next week. The European model is completely unimpressed with this system, but a few hurricane models show further development so we will keep an eye on it.

"The best rain chances are Sunday-Tuesday," Campbell said. "Late Sunday through early Monday tropical remnants could arrive and a cold front moves through on Tuesday bringing another shot at rain."

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