Support for Gun Control Seems Strong. But It May Be Softer Than It Looks.

When you ask Americans in a poll whether they support universal background checks for gun purchases, huge majorities say yes. Ask them for a specific vote for such a legal change, and that support drops off.

In recent years, there have been three true tests of this question. In Washington state and Nevada, voters said yes. In Maine, they said no. Ballot measures in all three earned a much smaller vote share than the initial polling suggested.

The results illustrate the political challenges facing the student-led activists who are marching in Washington and other cities this weekend to push for stronger gun laws.

While a wide range of gun control laws appear popular in polls, support may soften once details emerge and they’re subjected to a robust political debate. In survey after survey, background checks are the most popular gun control measure, with support frequently over 80 percent. A recent Quinnipiac poll, taken after the deadly shootings last month at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High in Parkland, Florida, had support at 97 percent. Background checks are popular among Democrats and Republicans, gun owners and those without guns.

Many gun measures get high marks in polls. In 2016, The New York Times asked Morning Consult to survey voters about 29 possible gun laws. Only one, which would have required gun owners to demonstrate a “genuine need” before being allowed to have a weapon, garnered less than majority endorsement. Our results are roughly consistent with a range of polls from a number of outlets, which show that many gun control ideas are popular in surveys.

But political consultants who have worked on ballot measures say that it can often be easy for opponents of gun laws to chip away at very strong initial public support for a given policy. That’s a dynamic that is true of all ballot measures, where voters must be persuaded to overcome a normal bias in favor of the status quo.

“You’re not asking people what is your sentiment,” said Zach Silk, the president of the public policy firm Civic Ventures, who led the 2014 background check effort in Washington and was a consultant for Nevada’s initiative in 2016. “It’s getting them to think about what system they want.”

More broadly worded polling questions, such as those that ask people if they value controls on gun ownership or protection of gun rights, show a public that is much more closely divided. Americans remain split in their views of the National Rifle Association, the country’s most prominent gun rights group. Silk said he likes to look at those responses, and support for an assault weapons ban, as good approximations of overall public support for gun restrictions because all three questions force people to contend with the inherent trade-offs between enhanced safety and restrictions in rights.

He said recent surveys, which show growing support for more restrictive laws on guns and assault weapons and declining support for the NRA, feed his optimism that the country may be experiencing a “phase shift” on guns.

But David Farmer, who led the Maine effort for universal background checks in 2016, said supporters of gun rights can be particularly persuasive once a concrete proposal is unveiled. In Maine, polling support for the measure declined between the introduction and the final vote, before failing 52-48.

“We know for a fact we lost the argument at the kitchen table and the bar and the bowling alley,” he said. “The gun enthusiasts were talking to their friends and relatives and neighbors. They felt about it in a way that was so passionate that they won those one-on-one encounters, and they were very successful in bringing in people to their side.”

The enthusiasm of gun rights activists doesn’t show up just in personal conversations. Over the last few decades, they have been more likely to speak to their legislators or give money to gun-related political groups, according to research from the Pew Research Center. Those actions have sent a signal to legislators that there is robust opposition even to laws that show strong public support in polls.

John Feinblatt, the president of Everytown for Gun Safety, a group that favors stricter gun laws, thinks the energy imbalance is shifting. He said the group’s donations, membership and Instagram follows have all risen since the Parkland shootings, a suggestion, he said, that members of the public who back Everytown’s agenda are increasing the intensity of their support. He also noted a string of recent state legislative successes on gun restrictions for domestic abusers, including some in Republican-led states, and the recent passage of a law in Florida that allows judges to temporarily confiscate guns from people who are judged a threat. (On Friday, an NRA spokesman declined to offer the organization’s views of public opinion on gun measures.)

Farmer said he is also optimistic that his side can do a better job of persuading voters in the future. He said he’s particularly heartened by the recent groundswell of activism by young Americans. He said he sees parallels between their energy and that of the opposition.

Several polls since the Parkland shootings show a rise in support for gun restrictions, including some that go beyond universal background checks. President Donald Trump’s proposal to arm schoolteachers has received more lukewarm support — with fewer than 45 percent of the public supporting it in two recent surveys. It will take some time to see whether the trends hold.