Voters aren't ecstatic about Robinson or Stein. But one candidate is viewed more unfavorably, WRAL News poll shows
Major political parties’ nominees for governor, Democrat Josh Stein and Republican Mark Robinson, are viewed favorably by just 37% of likely voters statewide. But Robinson faces far more critics than Stein, according to a new WRAL News poll.
Twenty-eight percent of likely voters say they hold an unfavorable view of Robinson, compared to 18% for Stein, according to the favorability poll of 598 likely voters in North Carolina.
And while Robinson has closely associated his political persona with that of former President Donald Trump — the two men have endorsed one another — the polling also shows that among potentially undecided swing voters, Robinson hasn’t won over as many as Trump has.
The poll shows 39% favorability for Trump among unaffiliated likely voters in North Carolina, compared with 27% for Robinson.
The poll, conducted in partnership with SurveyUSA between March 3 and March 9, has a credibility interval of 4.9 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to margin of error but takes into account more factors and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measurement of statistical certainty.
Spokespeople for both gubernatorial campaigns didn't immediately comment on the poll results.
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Winning undecided voters
Robinson’s detractors on the left and the right have criticized his history of controversial comments about women, Jews, LGBTQ people and others.
When GOP challenger Bill Graham conceded his loss in the Republican primary for governor, he blasted Robinson as “unelectable” in November and said he worried Republican voters were harming their party’s chances at taking back not only the governor’s mansion but the White House, too, by putting Robinson on the ballot.
Poll results released Monday showed Stein in a statistical tie with Robinson, with 44% support compared with Robinson’s 42% — despite Trump’s lead over Biden. SurveyUSA President Ken Alper said in an interview that Biden’s campaign in North Carolina could get a boost from Stein — even though in other years it’s typically the other way around, with the presidential campaign helping its party in other down-ballot races.
But Stein’s lead over Robinson among self-described moderates, by a more than 2-to-1 margin, was so wide that Alper said it could have a “reverse coattails” effect and help flip voters in the presidential race, too.
“If Mark Robinson makes independent voters angry enough, there's the possibility Stein might have some reverse coattails and give Biden some real help as well, pulling everyone else up,” said Alper, referring to Robinson’s history of controversial statements.
Political observers are paying close attention to whether Robinson can attract more minority voters than previous Republican candidates. Robinson could make history as the state’s first Black governor, and GOP strategists have been looking to a more diverse array of candidates to lure more Black and Latino voters to the party.
The new WRAL News favorability poll shows that 2% of Black voters report a “very favorable” view of Robinson, compared with 31% of Black voters who report a “very unfavorable” view of Robinson. Black voters in North Carolina have historically been overwhelmingly affiliated with the Democratic Party.
Many voters unaware of controversies
Democrats have been using Robinson’s statements as part of their strategy to whip up their base. But Tuesday’s poll shows Democrats and Stein’s campaign still have work to do. Almost half of likely voters — 49% — either said they were unbothered by Robinson’s comments or didn’t know enough to say how it might affect their vote.
And while 40% said Robinson’s statements about women, LGBTQ people and the Jewish community made them less likely to vote for Robinson, another 11% said the comments made them more likely to vote for Robinson — including 7% of registered Democrats.
But, perhaps more crucially, nearly one in every five registered Republicans said Robinson’s past comments made them less likely to support their party’s nominee for governor.
Stein has not faced similar polarization over controversial comments. Republican leaders in the state legislature have criticized him heavily in the past, however, for refusing to defend some new state laws in court — laws Stein has said are unconstitutional.
Stein hasn’t avoided all hot-button issues. His office is currently fighting to stop a high-profile appeal citing the Racial Justice Act, which lets inmates on death row claim their death sentences were racially biased, and which drew criticism for Stein during the Democratic primary for governor by former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan.
But he did refuse to defend a wide-ranging law that made numerous changes to election laws — and which was ruled unconstitutional by a federal appeals court for intentionally targeting Black voters for discrimination at the ballot box.
And Stein not only refused to defend the state’s recent 12-week abortion ban in court but also sided with the doctors and activists who were suing over it. That lawsuit, however, has mostly ended in victories for GOP lawmakers who passed the stricter abortion laws last year.
When asked how Stein’s history of not defending those abortion and voting laws in court might affect their vote for him as governor, 22% of voters said it made them more likely to support Stein and 37% said it made them less likely to support him — including one in four registered Democrats.
Another 43% said they didn’t know, or that it wouldn’t change their vote one way or another.
