Trump and Biden in dead heat in NC, new poll says. Could RFK Jr. play spoiler?
The likely rematch in the 2024 elections between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump is neck and neck in North Carolina, a new Quinnipiac University poll on Wednesday shows.
Trump was leading Biden 48% to 46%, the poll found, with the other 6% saying either that they were undecided, wouldn't cast a vote for president at all, or would back a third-party candidate.
But when the poll asked voters about specific third party candidates, their support ballooned. Nearly one in every five voters picked a third party candidate over either Trump or Biden, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading the pack.
The poll of 1,401 self-identified registered voters, conducted between April 4 and April 8, has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.
Kennedy is the son of the late United States attorney general and the nephew of former Democratic President John F. Kennedy. The environmental lawyer and longtime anti-vaccine activist is running as a candidate for the We the People Party. His campaign said this month that the party had received enough signatures to get on the ballot in North Carolina. State and local elections officials would have to certify the signatures first.
The poll showed that if Kennedy does get on the ballot, he could win more support than any other third-party candidate has in recent presidential elections: Kennedy had 12% support among North Carolina voters, the poll found, followed by left-wing academic Cornell West and presumptive Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 3% apiece.
The Libertarian Party and Constitution Party are also expected to nominate presidential candidates who will be on the ballot in North Carolina but have yet to do so, and the poll didn't include them.
Expanding the list of options in North Carolina saw Trump's support drop to 41% and Biden's drop to 38%, the poll found.
"There is no clear leader in either of these matchups as the leads are within the margin of error," Quinnipiac said in describing the poll results.
Stein leading Robinson for governor
While the poll found the race for president a statistical tie, with perhaps a slight edge to Trump, the governor's race was a different story: Democratic nominee Josh Stein led Republican nominee Mark Robinson by eight points, 52% to 44%.
Stein's lead was largely due to winning over Trump-supporting independents, the poll showed, plus even some Republican voters. While just 4% of Republicans said they'd back Biden for president, the poll showed, twice as many said they'd back Stein for governor.
On the other side of the aisle, 3% of Democrats said they'd back Trump, and 3% also said they'd back Robinson.
Among independent voters, Trump led Biden 49% to 41% — but in the race for governor, Stein led Robinson among independent voters by 52% to 43%. In North Carolina, unaffiliated voters make up the biggest voting bloc, followed by registered Democrats and Republicans, respectively.
It wouldn't be unprecedented for North Carolina voters to back a Republican for president but a Democrat for governor; it happened in 2016 and 2020 when Trump and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper each won in North Carolina. Cooper is term-limited, prevented from running for reelection this year.
In the 11 elections from 1980 through 2020, Republicans won the presidential race in North Carolina 10 times, while Democrats won the race for governor eight times.
Polls consistent on support for Trump, Stein
The Quinnipiac poll results for the presidential and gubernatorial races largely reflect what a WRAL News poll found last month, although the two polls aren't a complete apples-to-apples comparison. The Quinnipiac poll was of self-identified registered voters while the WRAL poll, in partnership with SurveyUSA, was more specifically of likely voters.
The WRAL poll found Trump leading Biden 50% to 45%, and Stein leading Robinson 44% to 42%.
The WRAL poll, released in early March, also showed more than 15% undecided in the race for governor. The Quinnipiac poll Wednesday indicated people might have since begun making up their minds, with just 4% undecided or uncommitted — fewer than in the presidential election.
Like with the presidential race, the Quinnipiac poll of the governor's race also asked voters a separate question about third-party candidates. Unlike the presidential race, it found none with substantial support. The matchup including third-party candidates reflected Stein with 48% support, Robinson with 41%, Libertarian Mike Ross with 4% and Green Party candidate Wayne Turner with 2%.
