Triangle-based Ukrainians call on support; economic impact from Ukraine-Russia conflict felt in US stocks, oil

Rising gas prices, dwindling stock portfolios and the risk of cyber hacks are all obstacles everyday citizens in the U.S. could face in wake of Russian's invasion of Ukraine.

Duke University professor of public policy Bruce Jentleson believes there will be some measurable impact on daily life in the U.S. — where inflation and supply chain shortages were already creating complications as a result of factors like the coronavirus pandemic and some industries struggling to find enough employees to maintain businesses.

"We will feel some effects," said Jentleson during a video conference call on Thursday morning. "It'll be less than Europeans feel, surely less than Ukrainians, but the world is interconnected in that way.

Experts stress: Don't panic and buy gas

In North Carolina and other states, drivers are already dealing with some of the highest gas prices in seven years.

North Carolina State University economist Mike Walden says people should brace for those prices to go higher.

"I think it could be as high as 50 cents a gallon ... but I think it would be short lived," said Waldon.

But, Walden says he has a bigger concern — that the U.S. fuel supply could be hit in another war.

"This is one of the things I fear, a full-fledged cyber war between the U.S. and Russia," he said.

But, experts warn that people shouldn't run to the gas station to unnecessarily fill up.

"I don't think it's going to be anything like 1973 during the OPEC embargo, but there will be some impact on people’s economic daily lives," said Jentleson.

On Thursday morning, the initial fallout began to take shape.

• Anxiety permeated the markets as stocks fell worldwide. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 sank 1.5% to continue its dismal start of the year, though the loss moderated after starting the day at 2.6%.
• Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic jumped toward or above $100 per barrel, their highest levels since 2014.
• Wholesale prices also shot higher for heating oil, wheat and other commodities. The spot price in Europe for natural gas, jumped as much as 31%. Much of the EU gets gas from Russian suppliers.

"Part of the goal for the U.S. now is not so much long-term strategy, but a medium-term one," Jentleson said. "Sanctions, military aid to make it costlier for Russia to maintain an occupation, diplomatic pressure from all sorts of directions, these are really parts of the strategy that aren’t going to give you results tomorrow but make a lot of sense to get to where you want to go."

Walden says he also worries about "a whole new kind of conflict" Russia could undertake.

"The Russians could go further. We would retaliate, and I am not sure how that would play out," said Walden. "That would be severely crippling to the U.S. economy."

Walden says how long the U.S. deals with the increase in gas prices depends on how long fighting goes on in Ukraine.

"It could be short lived. But if Putin has something bigger in mind then this could be long lived," he said.

During his first remarks following the invasion, President Joe Biden said he would be doing what he could to ease the impact at the pump.

"I know this is hard and Americans are already hurting," said Biden. "I will do everything in my power to limit the pain the American people are feeling at the gas pump. This is critical to me."

But, Walden said that power is limited. An earlier release of oil from the U.S. strategic reserves had little effect on prices. Walden says other options could include cutting federal fuel taxes or sending a signal to markets by removing restrictions on energy exploration.

"Fuel is essential to our economy. It is essential to people staying alive," said Walden.

'Horrific violence and bloodshed' possible in coming days

Duke assistant professor Simon Miles believes there could be more tragedy in the days to come. Troops from Fort Bragg have already been deployed to Poland and Germany.

"I think that we’re looking at a few days here of what’s going to be more horrific violence and bloodshed," Miles said. "I think that the effort by the Russians will be to force a fait accompli as quickly as possible."

U.S. military leaders were beginning to learn more about the takeover.

• A senior U.S. defense official says Thursday's attack by Russia appears to be the first phase in what will likely be a multiple phased, large-scale invasion.
• The official said that roughly more than 100 missiles were launched in the first few hours of the attack.
• The main targets of the air assault have been barracks, ammunition warehouses and 10 airfields.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces were trying to seize the Chernobyl nuclear plant.

Earlier, President Joe Biden denounced the attack as “unprovoked and unjustified” and said Moscow would be held accountable.

Biden sending additional forces to bolster NATO

Biden said on Thursday the U.S. would be sending additional forces to Germany to bolster the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO.

"Our forces are not and will not be engaged in the conflicted ... Our forces are not going to Europe to fight in Ukraine but to defend our NATO allies and reassure those allies in the East," said Biden.

NATO was formed following World War II to contain the Soviet Union and had expanded in recent decades to include former Soviet bloc countries. Ukraine borders the NATO member countries of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

CNN reports that if Russia threatened one of those countries, the U.S. would be required by the agreement to defend them.

The attacks targeted military defense positions including barracks, ammo depots and airfields.

"I don't think Ukraine is all that important [to Putin.] I think this is to intimidate NATO, the European Union and those who are seeking to expand the freedom frontier in that neck of the woods," said retired Fort Bragg Commander Dan McNeill.

Thousands of Ukrainians have flooded the highways on the way to the country's border with Poland. That's where 5,000 members of Fort Bragg's 82nd Airborne Division have set up refugee camps and are making plans to help Americans in the region.

McNeill said he believes Putin wants to reunite the former Soviet Union.

"To bring Ukraine to heel and give a demonstration to other members of NATO and especially to those who were former Soviet social republics. I mean, Poland and Romania come to mind relatively quickly when I think about that," he said.

Of the 7,000 troops being deployed to Europe, none of them are to come from Fort Bragg. Sources tell WRAL News that the new round of deployments will come from the 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team out of Fort Stewart, GA, and the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team out of Fort Carson, CO.

Triangle-based Ukrainians call on neighbors for support

Meanwhile, Ukrainians in the Triangle said they're calling on their neighbors for support right now as they watch the invasion.

Ukrainians in the Carolinas rallied outside the State Capitol in Raleigh on Thursday. Organizers said they want their neighbors to know how the war is affecting families in the Triangle.

"What keeps us strong is that freedom [and] belief that we are brave, we are hopeful," said Nataliia Berezhna, who came to the U.S. in 2019.

Passports in hand and all their belongings packed into a few bags, Berezhna and her son, Anton Berezhnyi, left Kyiv where Berezhna worked for the U.S. Embassy for 18 years. The family later settled in Apex.

"We found lots of support in the community, in our neighborhood. But we also found support in Ukrainians in the Carolinas," said Berezhna.

Now, the family said they're watching their former city become a target of Russia's war. Berezhni says his friends back in Ukraine could hear the air raid sirens.

"My mind doesn't want to imagine that, you know, but I know it's happening," said Berezhna.

"My friends, they do not necessarily hate Russia," he said. "They just hate the policy they give."

At Golden Hex Market in Cary, national flags on products from Russia and Ukraine share shelf space side-by-side.

"In my wildest imagination, I cannot think it would go to war," said store owner Arthur Schwarts, who lived in Ukraine for a long time. "This is madness what's going on. People are dying right now, and the whole world's supposed to stand up and stop this in any means possible."

"I was in shock. War is always bad for people. People suffer," said shopper Julia Gorelik.

For now, at least, Ukrainians in the Triangle said technology allows them to keep in touch with family members.

"It's hard to be far away because my family is in Ukraine, and my dad said to me just two days before this happened, he said, 'I'm happy you are there. I have one family to worry less about because I know you are safe there,'" said Berezhna.

Berezhna said their biggest request is for anyone with neighbors, friends, classmates or coworkers from Ukraine to check in on them right now.

"It matters so much that you know its happening. That you care for us. That you're willing to offer support," she said.

The Russian Ballet Theatre performed in Durham Thursday. Wednesday night, those dancers walked off stage to the devastating news that is now at the center of the world’s stage.

Russia invaded Ukraine.

The dancers are from all over. Armenia, Japan, Russia and Ukraine.

Arno Stin is one of the many with family in Ukraine. He's been able to get in touch with them..he says his family is confused and scared...

"They are trying to hide in bomb shelters," said Stin.

Others, like Olga, haven't had luck getting through.

"There's no internet. Cell phones," said Olga.

These dancers constantly checked their phones for updates, hoping to hear good news. Practice was the last thing on their mind.

Co-producer Gulya Hartwick said they danced for peace Thursday.

"I don't know how it's going to go. With tears in our eyes and dancing. We will make sure we bring the emotion of unity to the audience," said Hartwick.