State budget taking shape behind closed doors
Republican state House and Senate leaders are holding private meetings this week to work out a budget deal for the 2022-23 fiscal year.
The two chambers have not yet settled on a spending target, but were working toward an agreement on Thursday.
Late last year, after months of negotiations, legislators and Gov. Roy Cooper agreed to a two-year budget plan that includes about $27 billion in spending for the fiscal year starting July 1.
In even years such as 2022, lawmakers typically adjust their two-year budget to account for changing needs or revenues. This year, given the historic $6.2 billion surplus this budget cycle, it's likely that any adjustment will include some additional spending. How much, though, isn't clear.
Earlier this month, when the governor proposed a plan to increase spending to $29.3 billion, about 8.5% over the enacted budget, legislative leaders signaled reluctance. “While the Governor’s budget proposal includes several shared priorities," House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland, said, "we are wary of excessively increasing spending in the face of potential economic downturns.”
Teacher and state worker raises. Cooper's proposal includes an additional 2.5% raise for teachers and state employees, over and above the 2.5% already included in the budget. Both groups would also receive an additional bonus payment. House and Senate leaders say they're discussing the issue but haven't yet agreed on target raises for either group.
The state employees' association, SEANC, said Cooper's proposal "doesn’t go far enough." "State government has problems that can’t be solved without a significant investment in its workers," SEANC president Ardis Watkins said in a statement, noting a 30% vacancy rate in the state government workforce.
Tax cuts. The size of the surplus has led to some calls among Republicans to once again cut state taxes. However, the state is already in the second year of a multi-year, $13 billion dollar tax cut plan that was included in the 2021 state budget. Senate leaders are reportedly considering accelerating the current plan by a year, but House leaders are not yet on board with that idea.
Closed-door process. The agreed-upon plan is expected to be unveiled by the Senate as a conference committee report, a specific type of bill that cannot be amended. That would certainly speed up the process of passing the adjustment plan, but it would disallow additions or input from rank-and-file members of either party. Legislative leaders have used this strategy before, most recently in 2018, when they still had a veto-proof majority. At the time, minority Democrats complained they had been given no input into the spending plan.
Other priorities
- Sports betting. Sports betting is considered likely to get a hearing this session. The Senate has already approved a bill that would legalize sports betting in North Carolina and tax it. The House has yet to hear the measure after social conservatives balked at the idea. But it appears to have bipartisan public support. A WRAL News poll in April found 52% of voters favored making sports betting legal, compared to 28% opposed and 19% undecided.
- Medical marijuana. Medical marijuana is another issue that's likely to surface this summer. Even more than sports betting, the legalization of marijuana for treatment of certain illnesses has overwhelming bipartisan support from the public, with 72 percent in favor in our recent poll. Two members of Senate GOP leadership sponsored a measure that won approval from three Senate committees last year, but later stalled out due to opposition from social conservatives. It's expected to get at least a Senate floor vote this session.
- Abortion. One issue that isn't considered likely to surface this session is abortion. Some GOP state lawmakers have called for additional restrictions on abortion in light of expectations that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion decision this summer. However, Cooper would veto any additional restrictions, and Republicans don't have enough votes to override a veto. So the issue is likely to remain on hold while Republicans seek to regain supermajorities in this fall's elections.