Science of sports betting: WRAL Investigates the odds of winning
North Carolina is about to enter the game of online sports betting. There’s plenty of excitement and plenty of concern about gambling addiction.
We will experience the thrill of having a little stake on a game or making a bet on the next play of the game. That’s offset by the ease in which players can use phones to quickly gamble hundreds of dollars, with no cash physically changing hands.
As went enter sports betting era, experts say the old adage “The house always wins” is still true. That’s based on scientific and analytical data that almost ensures the oddsmakers will cash in on every bet you can imagine. Those who choose to bet will obviously win here and there. But over the long run, the odds aren’t in the public’s favor.
“The house is going to take their cut regardless,” Charles Dahan told WRAL Investigates.
Dahan is a numbers guy who knows how sports betting works.
“They are remarkable at setting lines,” Dahn said off mobile betting platforms that will set the over/unders, point spreads or moneyline bets on college and pro sports.
Dahan says betting platforms set and move lines with the hopes of getting half of the money on each side of the bet. The goal is make sure the losing bets are more than enough to cover the winnings.
Most of the time, Dahan says, it works, “They’re really only paying out 90% to the winners. They don’t want any risk, they just want to collect the 10% fee. They don’t want any liability either way.”
WRAL Investigates found some examples. The Nevada Gaming Board started tracking Super Bowl betting in 1991. In those 34 games, the casinos came out on top 32 times, winning $236 million. The two losses were close, but many of the casino wins were well over the expected 10% take.
Closer to home, we examined the Feb. 28 Duke-Louisville basketball game. Between the point spread, the over-under total score and the moneyline bet, where you just pick a team to win outright, there were six possible outcomes based on the winner or final score. Duke won in a blowout, but even if Louisville pulled off the upset, the casino would have won 5 of those six bets and broke even on one.
“This isn’t like the lottery where you can bet a dollar and win tens of millions of dollars,” said WRAL WRAL Sports investigative reporter Brian Murphy. “For most parts in sports betting, you have to put up what you’re going to win.”
Murphy followed sports gambling from the bill drafting table at the legislature to now, almost reality.
“[At] noon on Monday you’ll be able to go onto any of these sites that you’ve already pre-registered on and begin placing bets,” he said.
Whether it’s television, online or social media, there’s no question you’ve seen sports betting advertisements from the companies approved to do business in North Carolina.
Murphy says no matter who you choose to bet with, sports betting to get rich is a real long shot.
"We’re talking about an industry where even the best win at 52, 54%, so what are the chances that you’re gonna string together seven [or] eight wins in a row?” Murphy said.
In fact, your best bet to win, based on the science, is early on with providers fighting for customers.
“The only ways you can edge against the house is to exploit those promotions,” Dahan said.
Dahn is talking about special promotions the betting platforms will off in the way of “free” bets after you make a real cash deposit into your account.
Both Dahan and Murphy agree the odds will catch up to you as time goes on.
“The notion of doing this that you’re ever going to make money, let alone you’re going to make money that's going to overcome that 10% is foolish,” Dahan said.
