Some voters appeared to distance themselves from North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the hours after CNN reported that Robinson made lewd and racist comments on a pornographic website more than a decade ago. But support for Robinson’s Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, didn’t change in the wake of the report, a new Meredith College poll indicates.
Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor, trailed Stein by 10 percentage points in the latest Meredith Poll, released Friday. Stein had 50% support, while Robinson had 40% — wider than previous Meredith polls, and the first time the poll has registered a double-digit lead for Stein.
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But that overall figure belies the tale of two phases of Robinson’s candidacy: Before and after the CNN report. The poll of 802 people was in the field from Sept. 17 through Sept. 20. The CNN report was published on the afternoon of Sept 19.
Responses collected before the CNN report was published showed Stein leading Robinson by 8 points (50% to 42%). Responses gathered after the report, however, showed a 13-point gap favoring Stein (50% to 37%).
“It appears that the CNN story peeled Robinson supporters away from him without adding to Stein’s support,” Meredith said in a summary of the results.
The drop for Robinson — and no change for Stein — indicates that some Robinson supporters saw the news “and went, ‘Hmm, this is a bridge too far,’” David McLennan, a political scientist at Meredith and director of the Meredith Poll, said in an interview.
CNN’s report linked Robinson to posts on a website called Nude Africa. The comments praised Adolf Hitler, called for the reinstatement of slavery, and described explicit pornographic preferences. In one post, Robinson called himself “a Black Nazi,” CNN reported. The network tied Robinson to the account with his email address, profile picture and user name that matched ones he used on other sites. The comments were made before Robinson entered public office.
Robinson immediately denied the CNN report last week, calling it false even before any details became public. He suggested he was the victim of internet trickery. He has since been under pressure by some Republicans to offer evidence to support his denials.
Robinson hired a law firm to investigate what he has described as “salacious lies.” The probe was launched Thursday, according to Robinson’s campaign. “I fully expect the facts are going to come to light quickly, and I intend to utilize every available means to hold CNN accountable for what they have done,” Robinson said on social media Thursday.
CNN hasn’t responded to WRAL’s requests for comment on the matter.
Robinson has, however, maintained support among the GOP base, many of whom say they either don’t believe or don’t mind the comments.
In North Carolina, elections for key offices like governor are often won by thinnest of margins — sometimes just a few thousand votes out of the millions cast — and either candidate losing support from moderate or undecided voters could be the deciding factor.
The potential 13-point lead for Stein reflects a similar, 14-point lead that a WRAL News Poll found earlier this month. McLennan believes the gap between Stein and Robinson will be smaller on election day, perhaps reflecting something closer to the 10-point overall spread reflected in the poll.
The poll reported a confidence interval of 3.5 percentage points, which is similar to a margin of error.
Robinson had already been trailing in the polls — in large part due to an already-public history of other comments about Jews, women, LGBTQ people and others, WRAL polling indicates — so much so that even before the CNN report came out, some Republicans feared opposition to him would hurt other GOP candidates on the ballot.
Mick Mulvaney, who served as chief of staff to then-President Donald Trump in 2019 and 2020, was among those raising that concern earlier this summer.
“Trump is being weighed down by a very unpopular Republican candidate for governor,” Mulvaney said in mid-August. “So Trump is going to have some difficulty in this state, in North Carolina, that he may not have in others.”
The Meredith Poll shows that many of the Republican or moderate voters who are questioning their support for Robinson do, however, remain in the Trump camp. It found a tied race between Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump and Harris each had 48% of the vote in the poll, with undecided voters or supporters of third-party candidates making up the remaining 4%.
That tracks with recent history. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump won North Carolina despite receiving less than 50% of the vote, due to third-party candidates winning over a small but potentially decisive portion of voters.
And while Trump’s solid numbers compared to Robinson’s could bring a sigh of relief to Republican strategists, the poll also had signs of good news for Democrats — namely its assessment that Harris remains far more competitive here than Democratic President Joe Biden had been before dropping out of the race earlier this summer.
“A Trump victory in the Electoral College hinges on his winning North Carolina,” McLennan said in a written summary of the poll. “The Trump campaign will continue to pour resources into the state. If Harris is able to squeak by and win North Carolina, her chances of winning the presidency are greatly enhanced.”
Of the nation’s seven competitive swing states in current presidential politics, six went for Biden in 2020. Only North Carolina voted for Trump. So if Harris were to flip North Carolina blue, Trump would have to flip multiple other states red to make up for it.
In a visit to Mint Hill on Wednesday, Trump seemed to acknowledge what other GOP operatives have told WRAL in the past: Without North Carolina, he likely doesn’t have a realistic path back to the White House.
“We’ve won North Carolina twice, and we’ve got to win it one more time,” Trump said. “We’re going all the way. Perhaps we go all the way anyway. But this is a very important place. A very important state.”