Report: Warmer temperatures could double the risk of tropical cyclones globally by 2050
Warming temperatures on a global scale could double the risk of intense tropical cyclones in the next 28 years, according to a new study.
The new research published in the journal Science Advances states human-caused climate change will result in tropical cyclones becoming twice as frequent and stronger in most parts of the world with an emphasis on low-income countries.
Dr. Nadia Bloemendaal, a researcher at the Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, said, “With our publicly available datasets, we can now analyze tropical cyclone risk more accurately for every individual coastal city or region.”
Researchers estimates on the impacts of climate change were based off projections that maximum wind speed could increase about 20 percent.
“Our results can help identify the locations prone to the largest increase in tropical cyclone risk. Local governments can then take measures to reduce risk in their region, so that damage and fatalities can be reduced,” said Bloemendaal.
Note there are some limitations. While the research focuses on the increase of tropical cyclones, it also states most of those won’t make landfall.
Dr. Ivan Haigh, Associate Professor at the University of Southampton, UK, said, “Of particular concern is that the results of our study highlight that some regions that don’t currently experience tropical cyclones are likely to in the near future with climate change.”
According to a statement released by the University of Amsterdam, “In a given year, only around 80 to 100 tropical cyclones form globally, most of which never make landfall. In addition, accurate global historical records are scarce and only span the last 30 to 100 years. This lack of data makes tropical cyclone modeling challenging and complicates local-scale risk assessments.”
“The new tropical cyclone dataset we have produced will greatly aid the mapping of changing flood risk in tropical cyclone regions,” said Haigh.
Researchers said the overall goal of this research is supporting governments while they assess potential changes in order to mitigate and reduce the influence of human-caused climate change.
