Projecting what NCHSAA conferences could look like after 8A realignment in 2025-26
The N.C. High School Athletic Association is set to realign into eight classifications before the 2025-2026 school year.
This is a forecast for what conferences could look like after the NCHSAA’s schools are split into eight classifications. The NCHSAA has operated with four classifications since before the turn of the century. Things will look quite different than what longtime N.C. high school sports fans have been accustomed to. This conference projection exercise is a “best guess.”
Earlier this year, a survey was sent out to schools that asked which potential realignment method they would prefer: continue to split the classifications into an equal number of schools, have a “Big 32” schools in 8A and split the bottom seven evenly, or have a “Little 32” schools in 1A and split the top seven evenly. We understand that the Big 32 was recommended by the majority, but we do not yet know if the association will officially go through with that layout. The NCHSAA also asked the schools how they would prefer to see conferences determined in the new realignment: would they rather have conferences with similar sized schools in the same classification, but with the potential for further travel distance during the regular season; or conferences with multiple classifications but closer in distance.
These forecasts include five schools that will be new to the NCHSAA in 2025: Ballantyne Ridge High School in Charlotte, American Leadership Academy-Johnston in Clayton, Jackson Day School in Charlotte, Phoenix Academy in High Point, Summit Charter Academy in Cashiers. This example also adds Wake Prep from Wake Forest, which is currently freelancing in the NCHSAA.
For a list of what eight classes could look like without the school divided into conferences, see here: What NCHSAA realignment could look like with 32 schools in 1A or 8A
These conference projections are far from a guarantee. Keep in mind the following:
- We are not sure that the NCHSAA will even keep conferences. Going to eight classifications makes sorting the leagues out very difficult. Some have speculated or encouraged the NCHSAA to mimic region formats used in other states.
- On a related note, we are not sure what playoffs will look like with eight classifications. With much thinner fields of teams to choose from, some will hold the opinion that every team should make the playoffs. If that is the case, what purpose would traditional conferences hold? For this exercise, we are assuming that the style of conferences that we are used to will remain.
- The enrollment numbers and classifications are based on the 2023-2024 average daily membership numbers, which are the most recent we have. The actual realignment will be based on the upcoming 2024-2025 ADMs.
- There have been plenty of examples of a school seeing an extreme change in ADMs year-to-year. Any schools that exist on the margins now my very well find themselves in a different classification by the time it matters. That could significantly shake up these conference projections, especially if the NCHSAA looks to avoid split conferences.
- Being that this realignment will be the first time the NCHSAA separates into eight classifications, we do not yet know what their parameters would be for the new conferences. We do not know the answers to the following questions:
- Will the NCHSAA emphasize the number of split conferences or try to minimize them?
- What will be the minimum number of schools in a conference?
- Will the association allow three different classifications into a split conference? Will there be a minimum number of teams from each classification in a split conference? Will they allow conferences to have one team from its own classification like East Carteret, Polk County, and Martin County are now?
- One thing that we find likely is the removal of the permanent dividing line between the east and west regions. With eight classifications, the current dividing line would result in significant imbalance. Thus, it will likely be possible for conferences in the center part of the state to feature teams that will go west or east in the playoffs.
HSOT Insiders can see all versions of the conference projections here:
- Little 32 Realignment example with 43 split conferences
- Little 32 Realignment example with 19 split conferences
- Even Classification Realignment example with 42 split conferences
- Even Classification Realignment example with 17 split conferences
- Big 32 Realignment example with 39 split conferences
- Big 32 Realignment example with eight split conferences
HighSchoolOT columnist J. Mike Blake wrote about why he prefers the "Little 32" model.
Stay tuned to HighSchoolOT for more realignment coverage leading up to the 2025-2026 changes. We may find out more information during this spring's NCHSAA Board of Directors meeting, so look out for our coverage of that event in late April/early May.
