Poll: Races for president, governor could be very close among NC voters

Less than four months from North Carolina's primary election, a new poll of registered voters shows the biggest races on the ballot could be very close.

The new poll from Meredith College sampled 755 registered voters in North Carolina to reveal preferences on presidential and governor races as the March 5, 2024, Primary Day election approaches.

The poll shows former President Donald Trump maintaining a commanding lead in the primary election. Among North Carolina's Republican voters:

• 51% would vote for Trump
• 14% would vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
• 9% would vote for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

Other Republican presidential candidates had less support from voters.

If the presidential election were held now, the poll found, President Joe Biden would edge Trump in North Carolina by just 1%, which is within the margin of error.

Meredith College poll director David McLennan was not surprised the numbers were so close in a state that is closely divided ideologically.

"It's just the nature of North Carolina for the last almost 20 years," McLennan said. "So even though it's kind of early to be doing a match up poll like this, I think we could see Biden winning by a point or two or Trump winning by a point or two quite easily."

Looking at the race for North Carolina’s governor, the poll found Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson also maintaining a strong lead in the GOP primary, garnering 41% support. Businessman Bill Graham received 5% and state treasurer Dale Folwell secured 3%. About 42% of voters said they are still undecided.

Attorney General Josh Stein has a strong lead over his challenger in the Democratic primary race, at 38%, compared to 11% for former state Supreme Court Justice Mike Morgan. Again, the majority of voters — 44% — said they haven’t decided.

If the gubernatorial election were held now, Stein would get 38% to Robinson’s 36%. The percentages are also in the confidence interval.

McLennan believes most people won’t pay attention to the governor’s race until after the holidays.

"I think that's another race where this is too early to be polling," McLennan said. "I mean, it gives kind of an indication that Mark Robinson is better known than any of the other Republican candidates. But until they actually start campaigning, we might not see any big changes."