New data: NC students are 2 to 15 months behind academically

North Carolina students, on average, fell off their academic pace by a couple to 15 months while learning mostly, or entirely, remotely during the COVID-19 pandemic’s first year, according to new estimates from the state Department of Public Instruction.

That means students will need intensive academic intervention to make up for hundreds to even more than a thousand hours of classroom time they couldn’t capitalize on, if they want to get back on track.

The new estimates stem from a report the department released earlier this year, in which the state estimated students had fallen behind on their learning but had no way of figuring just how much.

The new data are a generalization; some students may need far less help and some many need far more help. The state cannot break the data down by school system, school, demographics or individual student, because officials could not use any figures other than statewide averages to make the estimates. The data don't account for what schools may have done to help students catch up during the current school year.

But the data illustrate just how far from normal a generation of students is compared to the generations who came before them. It’s the result of pandemic precautions that closed many elementary schools and all upper grade schools to daily, in-person learning from March 2020 to March 2021.

The virus killed more than 12,000 North Carolinians and flooded hospitals before vaccines were widely available in April 2021.

North Carolina Department of Public Instruction officials, working with SAS Institute analysts, estimated students, on average, fell behind in English language arts by two months and one week to seven months and three weeks, depending on their grade level. In math, they fell behind by seven months and one week to 15 months and one week, depending on their grade level.

The results in math are likely worse because research appears to show math instruction is less effective done remotely than other subjects, said Jeni Corn, director of research and evaluation at DPI’s Office of Learning Recovery.

Plus, for children’s whose parents played a larger than normal role in their learning, higher levels of math may have been more difficult, Corn said.

“Many parents felt more comfortable when they were supporting students at home in some of the early grades math,” Corn said. Many felt less comfortable with middle and high school-level math.

Students could fall behind by more than one year because the analysis covers both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 school years, a total of 18 months, department spokeswoman Blair Rhoades said. The department combined the two school years, even though the pandemic did not arrive until March 2020. Still, department officials believe the pandemic is to blame.

“However, because students tend to make growth in a typical year, we chose to attribute these results to the pandemic, defined as March 2020 to now,” Rhoades said.

That students fell behind by more months than the length of the pandemic, during the time period studied, isn’t a major concern for department officials.

The data aren’t exact, said Calen Clifton, a department research analyst. “They are approximations intended to help communication.”

The data are also not prescriptive, he said.

“This information is not a recommendation to extend the school day or year,” Clifton said. “We provide it just to help everyone understand the information that we put out back in March and to help practitioners select interventions.”

School officials have access to data that show how far each individual student — at least those students who took the tests — scored below what they were expected to. That will help them figure out which students, or even schools, need the most support.

But not every student took the tests.

“We would discourage schools or districts from only using one set of data,” said Michael Maher, director of DPI’s Office of Learning Recovery and Acceleration. This new data are on tool for school leaders to use, but leaders should not forget about students who perhaps did not take the exams used to compile the analysis, Maher said.

Educators across the Triangle have told WRAL News they’ve already hired tutors or learning coaches to help students who have struggled the most.

Schools have spent more than $2.4 billion of the $6.2 billion they ended up receiving in federal COVID-19 stimulus funds, must of which will last through September 2024. Beyond that, records show they’ve already allocated significant portions of the remaining funds, hiring thousands of temporary workers, providing summer programs and increasing mental health supports. Hundreds of millions of dollars do remain unallocated. So far, the biggest expenses have been for employee retention and recruitment bonuses.

Reports on summer learning showed marginal benefit last year and in previous years.

The Officer of Learning Recovery and Acceleration plans to evaluate each intervention approach schools choose to take and publishing their results. In their applications to use stimulus funds, schools must explain to the department how they intend to monitor their efforts’ success.

Still, Maher suggested only one intervention for students is not wise.

“The idea is that you wrap a number of these interventions around students,” Maher said.

The Department of Public Instruction has outlined several upcoming programs to address “learning recovery” using the department’s pandemic relief funds.

• This summer, a “Career Accelerator” program will be geared toward preparing 6th grade through 12th grade students for careers, either out of high school or out of college. The program, costing $26 million, will be in all 115 public school districts and 35 charter schools. The program will run again in the summer of 2023, for $36 million.
• A “Summer Bridge Academy” will be available for rising kindergarten, 6th grade, 9th grade and 12th grade students. Two weeks before the start of the next school year, those students will focus on math and English, do projects and take field trips, among other things. It will be in 113 public school districts and at least 45 charter schools, costing $40 million.
• The state will also direct a math enrichment program for 4th through 8th graders for before-school and after-school programs designed to help students accelerate their math learning and get back on track. Schools can apply for the program, funded by $36 million, in July.

Because the largest stimulus package — totaling well more than $3 billion for North Carolina — requires that 20% of it be used toward “learning recovery,” the state, school systems, charter schools and any independent schools that received funding must spend at least $644.9 million toward learning recovery. In many cases, schools have outlined spending more than 20% on learning recovery.

The state Department of Public Instruction is planning more studies, with more partners, examining credits earned versus credits attempted, changes in discipline practices, best practices an characteristics in resilience for students and schools, student health and well-being, the impact of the pandemic on students after they leave school and the impact of the bonus money that’s been paid to retain people working in schools amid employee shortages.