NC rides national wave of Democratic victories

In Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Ohio, Democrats are celebrating big state-level wins — legislative control, a governor’s race, a state supreme court seat, a constitutional amendment.

In North Carolina, Democrats are celebrating mayoral races and town council seats in unlikely places. They’re smaller wins, to be sure, but they’re perhaps even more surprising than some of the bigger victories elsewhere.

Most North Carolina municipal elections are nonpartisan. But it’s not unusual for parties to recruit, train, endorse and support candidates.

Democrats swept the mayor’s race and council seats in Huntersville, in Republican-leaning northern Mecklenburg County — the first time that’s ever happened, according to Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer.

“This is an odd election,” Bitzer said, adding that the Huntersville area has been growing and becoming more politically competitive.

“I think it’s demographics,” Bitzer said. “I think it’s the competitive nature of urban suburbs. That’s where the real battleground lies in this state’s politics.”

Democrats also won all the open seats in New Hanover County, which is politically nearly evenly divided. They won the mayor’s race in High Point, a seat that’s been held by a Republican for many years. They even swept the town councils in Cooleemee, a tiny town in Davie County, and in Mars Hill and Marshall in Madison County, all typically Republican areas.

Democrats have not engaged much in local races in recent cycles, but longtime Democratic strategist Gary Pearce says that’s changing under new party Chairwoman Anderson Clayton. He credits her for the wins.

“She had made a big thing when she came in about wanting to compete in municipal races,” Pearce said. “Some Democrats were afraid that would take the focus off the 2024 election, but she proved them wrong.”

“They recruited candidates, people organized, and that’s good practice for next year,” Pearce added. “It’s also just a psychological boost. You can’t underestimate how much a boost like this means.”

In Democrats’ statewide wins elsewhere, the issue of abortion played a central role. In local non-partisan races in North Carolina, it hasn’t really been relevant. But Pearce still thinks there’s a connection.

“It’s a big part of what contributed to the Democrats’ energy in North Carolina,” Pearce said. “Anger about the abortion ban, about gerrymandering, about Tricia Cotham switching parties and making the abortion ban possible. They’re angry.”

“Wait till it’s an issue in candidates’ races next year, which it will be,” he added.

Meredith College political scientist David McLennan isn’t so sure this year’s races will be a harbinger for 2024, though he agreed Tuesday seemed to be a good night for Democratic candidates.

“Off-year municipal elections are hard to draw conclusions from for many reasons,” McLennan told WRAL. “They’re low turnout elections and are often affected by very localized issues or great organizing by the candidate.”

He added: “Because 2024 will be dictated by national candidates and national issues, I am not sure we can predict a Blue Wave just yet,” McLennan said.

But Bitzer thinks 2023 may have been dominated by national issues, too.

“This is the nationalization effect,” Bitzer said. “[Former U.S. House Speaker] Tip O’Neill used to say, ‘All politics is local.’ Now, all politics are becoming national.”

North Carolina Republican Party spokesman Jeff Moore said Republicans have plenty to celebrate too, like mayoral wins in Burlington, Greenville, and Gastonia.

“We look forward to reaching voters across the state with a winning message as we work toward the ’24 election cycle,” Moore said.