EDITOR'S NOTE: Marshall Brain – futurist, inventor, NCSU professor, writer and creator of “How Stuff Works” is a contributor to WRAL TechWire. Brain takes a serious as well as entertaining look at a world of possibilities for Earth and the human race. He’s also author of “The Doomsday Book: The Science Behind Humanity’s Greatest Threats.”

We are all familiar with the concept of the United States as an experiment in governance. The “American Experiment” is something we hear fairly frequently, often in connection with the term “Constitutional Crisis”.  As in, “Will the American Experiment survive this Constitutional Crisis?”

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But why is America called an Experiment? Because back in the 1780s era when the Constitution was written and ratified, there really was nothing else like America’s form of government.  England had a king.  So did France.  So did Prussia, now Germany.  Japan had an emperor.  Russia had a Czar.  And so on.  When the United States became a nation, its government was distinctly different, experimental, and revolutionary.  For example:

  • Instead of a monarch or a dictator, the Constitution describes a democratic form of government. People vote for their leaders on a schedule.  Authority comes from the consent of the electorate.  No more “divine right of kings” for example.  No more “royal bloodlines.”
    • There is an attempt to avoid a concentration of power by creating three branches of government with checks and balances between them. The goal is to guard against a return to monarchy.
      • “We the people” have rights and freedoms from the very start. One of these rights is the right to choose our leaders.

        It sounds good, and the experiment has worked pretty well for over 200 years. But what if the experiment were to fail?  What if the democratic system driving the American Experiment were to collapse into a dictatorship?  This, obviously, would be a doomsday scenario.

        One problem with the constitution is that it depends on good sportsmanship by the participants. It depends on the loser in an election to politely concede so that there can be a smooth transfer of power to the winner.

        What if the loser is not a good sport? What if they refuse to concede? Worst-case scenario: What if the loser tries every way possible to ignore the will of the electorate, ignore the results of the election, and stay in power?  If successful, this would be a doomsday scenario for the American Experiment.

        The Department of Justice issued its 45-page indictment against Donald Trump that you can read here. What this document describes is a plan for the collapse of American democracy – a failed doomsday scenario where, but for a very narrow margin, America might now be a dictatorship instead of a democracy.

        To understand why this this doomsday scenario failed, let’s first examine a doomsday scenario that succeeded.

        The Oklahoma City Bombing of 1995

        In 1995, the worst domestic terrorism attack in American history took place in Oklahoma City. The terrorist and an accomplice filled the back of a box truck with 55 gallon drums of explosives.  The truck was parked in front of the Murrah Federal Building and it exploded at 9:02 a.m. as described here:

        Oklahoma City Bombing -- “At 9:02 a.m. (14:02 UTC), the Ryder truck, containing over 4,800 pounds (2,200 kg) of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, nitromethane, and diesel fuel mixture, detonated in front of the north side of the nine-story Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building. 168 people were killed and hundreds more injured. One third of the building was destroyed by the explosion, which created a 30-foot-wide (9.1 m), 8-foot-deep (2.4 m) crater on NW 5th Street next to the building. The blast destroyed or damaged 324 buildings within a 4-block radius, and shattered glass in 258 nearby buildings. The broken glass alone accounted for 5 percent of the death total and 69 percent of the injuries outside the Murrah Federal Building. The blast destroyed or burned 86 cars around the site. The destruction of the buildings left several hundred people homeless and shut down a number of offices in downtown Oklahoma City. The explosion was estimated to have caused at least $652 million worth of damage.”

        For more information see this video.

        According to the following article, the sequence of events just before the explosion went like this: FBI Re-Creates Events Leading to Bomb Blast -- “Here are the events leading up to the Oklahoma City bombing, based on surveillance cameras around the site, according to the FBI:

        • 3 minutes before: Truck last seen by surveillance cameras 3 minutes and 5 seconds before blast
          • 2 minutes before: FBI believed fuse was lit 2 minutes and 12 seconds before blast.
            • 1 minute before: Truck parked in front of Murrah building about 1 minute before blast.
              • Blast: Blast at 9:02 a.m., April 19, 1995

                FBI believes 10-foot fuse ran from cab to drums of explosives in back of truck.”

                This fuse is a completely normal thing, like the fuse you would light on a firework on the 4th of July. The only difference is that it was 10 feet long and therefore took two minutes to burn.  The thing to contemplate here is: What if the fuse had failed?  What if it had fizzled out at the 5-foot point?  Then it would have been a failed doomsday scenario.  The bomb would not have exploded.

                Unfortunately, the fuse performed according to its specifications, burned for all 10 feet, and ignited the bomb with devastating effects. The Oklahoma City bombing was a successful doomsday scenario.

                The doomsday scenario to destroy American democracy on January 6

                If we read through the 45-page indictment document, we can understand the plan meant to destroy American democracy on January 6, 2021. The indictment describes the conspiracy in this way:

                “The purpose of the conspiracy was to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 presidential election by using knowingly false claims of election fraud to obstruct the federal government function by which those results are collected, counted, and certified.”

                Several parts of the conspiracy had failed prior to January 6. Therefore, January 6 became the last opportunity for the President to remain in power.  There were several prongs to the conspiracy:

                1. Pressure on the Vice President to derail January 6th’s certification vote.
                  1. The riot at the Capitol on January 6, intended to disrupt the certification vote.
                    1. The slates of fake electors, intended to change the results of the certification vote.
                      1. Voting by members of congress to object to the certification vote.

                        Ultimately the doomsday scenario came down to two pieces which are described in the indictment. First:

                        “122. At 11:44 p.m., Co-Conspirator 2 emailed the Vice President's Counsel advocating that the Vice President violate the law and seek further delay of the certification. Co-Conspirator 2 wrote, ‘I implore you to consider one more relatively minor violation [of the ECA] and adjourn for 10 days to allow the legislatures to finish their investigations, as well as to allow a full forensic audit of the massive amount of illegal activity that has occurred here.’”

                        And then:

                        “81. On the afternoon of January 3, Co-Conspirator 4 spoke with a Deputy White House Counsel. The previous month, the Deputy White House Counsel had informed the Defendant that ‘there is no world, there is no option in which you do not leave the White House [o]n January 20th.’ Now, the same Deputy White House Counsel tried to dissuade Co-Conspirator 4 from assuming the role of Acting Attorney General.  The Deputy White House Counsel reiterated to Co-Conspirator 4 that there had not been outcome-determinative fraud in the election and that if the Defendant remained in office nonetheless, there would be ‘riots in every major city in the United States.  ‘Co-Conspirator 4 responded, ‘Well, [Deputy White House Counsel], that's why there's an Insurrection Act.’”

                        Putting these pieces together, the idea for the doomsday scenario seems to have been:

                        1. The Vice President would delay the certification for 10 days.
                          1. The certification of the election, which should have been a mere formality, would not happen.
                            1. “Riots in every major city in the United States” would ensue.
                              1. The Insurrection Act would be invoked and would remain invoked.

                                Leading to the obvious question: “What is in The Insurrection Act?” This article explains:

                                The Insurrection Act Explained --“The Insurrection Act authorizes the president to deploy military forces inside the United States to suppress rebellion or domestic violence or to enforce the law in certain situations.”

                                This article mentions a second layer: Team Trump’s Plan: Weaponize the ‘Insurrection Act’ Against Democracy -- “The indictment does not refer to this, but close followers of the post-Jan. 6 prosecutions know that the the Insurrection Act was also the means by which the Oath Keepers imagined they’d be solemnized by Trump to take the battle to his enemies on the day of the unrest at the Capitol.”

                                If the Vice President had gone along with the President’s plan and delayed the certification by 10 days, we might all be living in a dictatorship now. Or if the slates of fake electors had been allowed into the process, we might all be living in a dictatorship now.  Or if the Capitol rioters and Capitol police started shooting each other and a large gunfight ensued, we might all be living in a dictatorship now.  Or if enough congress members had voted to object to certifying the election on January 6, we might all be living in a dictatorship now.

                                But none of these things happened. This doomsday scenario failed. The American Experiment continues, at least for now.

                                SOURCES:

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