In short period, Graham makes small gain in NC governor's race

One ad shows gunfights in the streets, a smash-and-grab burglary, a graphic clip of a convenience store shooting. Cut to North Carolina Republican Bill Graham. The former prosecutor proposes a gang-prevention task force, and he has a promise for violent criminals: “As governor, I’ll put them in jail or put them in the ground.”

In another ad, Graham promises to cut taxes, increase employment, give parents more say in public education and, again, go after criminals, “including the death penalty for human traffickers and drug dealers.”

The messages — chock full of pledges — stand out in a long-shot effort to upend the front runner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has relied on his commanding oratory skills to mesmerize audiences but hasn’t launched a broad ad campaign.

In a four-minute campaign video on his website, Robinson emphasizes his up-from-the-bootstraps rise to power while enumerating what he sees as the state’s problems. It lacks specifics, though, beyond suggesting that he is the solution.

Graham’s action-plan approach appears to be gaining some traction. Less than a month after launching his campaign, Graham is polling second in the GOP contest.

Graham received 5% support in a Meredith Poll conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 5 — only two weeks after the launch of his campaign. That places him slightly ahead of Republican State Treasurer Dale Folwell, who launched his campaign for the GOP nomination five months ago as a less-divisive alternative to Robinson. Folwell received 3% support. Former legislator Andy Wells received 1%.

Graham still trails Robinson by an enormous margin; Robinson received 41% of the support. But the poll results show Graham’s campaign ads are having some effect, said David McLennan, director of the Meredith Poll. And 42% of respondents said they were undecided.

After pledging $5 million of his own money, Graham is the only candidate with television ads airing across the state. His name may also endear him to voters, McLennan said. The late evangelist Billy Graham was from North Carolina and the late Jim Graham was a popular agriculture commissioner for 40 years.

While the candidate from Salisbury isn’t related to either of those figures, the poll results could show “some association going on with that common name in North Carolina,” McLennan said.

Folwell said the poll results show who seeks the spotlight the most — not who’s the most qualified.

“I've never led a poll but in the last two elections received more votes than anyone who has ever run for president on the NC ballot,” Folwell said in a statement. He believes the tide will turn after the first of the year and voters “get serious about their vote.”

“I’m part of the Republican Party who attacks problems, not people, gives voters someone to vote for, not against,” he said, adding that he wants to improve state agencies with a “culture of conservatism, courtesy, common sense and humility.”

Folwell’s pitch is a reference to Robinson, who has made derogatory comments about LGBTQ+ people and statements viewed by some as misogynistic or antisemitic — which has caused some in his party to question his electability in a general election.

Mike Lonergan, a spokesman for Robinson’s campaign, declined to provide a response to Folwell’s statement.

Action plan, minus abortion

Campaign representatives for Graham, who wasn’t available for an interview, said they think he’ll stand out from the GOP pack because he’s a successful businessman who has articulated plans to address specific issues, and because he has the money to spread his message across the state.

Graham’s latest ad, launched last week, focuses on his plans to stop China from buying land in North Carolina. “China's infiltration of North Carolina has gone on for too long," Graham says in the ad, adding that he’ll “make sure China can't buy farmland in our state.”

Voters can expect to see another ad soon about tax reform, said Paul Shumaker, Graham’s campaign advisor. Graham wants to repeal taxes levied on food in each county and eliminate the state income tax on any overtime pay, among other things.

“You've got a contrast to somebody whose career of accomplishment has been built in politics and only politics, and that's Mark Robinson,” said Shumaker, who criticized Robinson for not offering many legislative goals on his campaign website.

“There is so much that we need to address in this state and I look forward to sharing my vision throughout the course of my campaign for governor,” Robinson says on his website.

Graham’s website mentions several of his goals but is silent about a top issue for Robinson and many voters: abortion. That’s because Graham doesn’t plan on prioritizing any new abortion laws, Shumaker said.

“Bill Graham is pro-life and Bill Graham feels like the legislature has done an adequate job of addressing that issue,” Shumaker said.

Entering the year, North Carolina laws outlawed abortions after the 20th week of pregnancy, with exceptions after that in the case of medical emergencies. Then in May, the GOP-controlled state legislature passed a law to limit most abortion after the 12th week of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.

Asked if Graham would support a stricter law, Shumaker declined to comment on hypothetical situations.

“We're focused on issues that root, core, base Republicans care about and care about deeply, and also issues that do not alienate the middle,” Shumaker said. He then accused Robinson of wavering on abortion and not showing enough support for North Carolina’s new law.

Robinson, who has likened abortion to murder, told WRAL in 2022 that if he became North Carolina’s top officeholder, he would support measures that outlaw abortion in all cases. He said he wants to make North Carolina the “most pro-life state in the Union” and impose “dire consequences” on doctors who unlawfully perform the medical procedure. “I don’t think abortion should ever happen,” he said. Robinson also said he likely wouldn’t obstruct a bill that allowed for abortion in cases that threatened a woman’s life or cases of rape or incest.

In February, Robinson told a conservative radio show that if he were governor, and if the legislature were willing, he could sign a bill saying, “You can’t have an abortion for any reason.” But such a scenario, he said, would cause people seeking abortions to go to neighboring states with looser restrictions on the procedure. He said he would like to steer people toward adoption or other options. He also said that he’d “love to see a ‘heartbeat bill’ proposed in our legislature.”

A "heartbeat bill" typically bans abortion after the sixth week of presidency. When Robinson announced his gubernatorial campaign in April, he also called for a "heartbeat bill."

After state lawmakers filed their new abortion bill, Robinson dodged questions about it. He was also absent from the legislature as lawmakers considered the new abortion law, even though one of the lieutenant governor’s few official duties is to preside over the state Senate. When Robinson was asked about the law at an event in Charlotte, he told WFAE-FM that he was “tired of talking about abortion. I don’t want to talk about it.”

Asked to clarify Robinson’s position on Thursday, Lonergan said that the lieutenant governor would support a heartbeat bill and exemptions “for extreme situations like rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is in danger.”

Republican candidates might be wise to drop the issue, McLennan said. Nearly 70% of Republicans who responded to a Meredith poll in September said they strongly or somewhat approved of the new abortion law. Only 24% of Republicans said they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the new law, he said.

“That tells me that Republicans like [the law] the way it is,” McLennan said. “Republicans who want to take it further would be taking a pretty big risk.”