Harris has slight edge in neck-and-neck race with Trump in NC, WRAL News Poll shows

Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in North Carolina, but Harris appears to have a slight edge, according to an exclusive WRAL News Poll of the 2024 presidential race.

Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points — a close result in this key battleground state, but one that represents a substantial improvement for Democratic hopes in North Carolina from the last WRAL poll, in March, that found Trump leading by 5 percentage points.

The new poll, released Monday, finds Harris leading Trump 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided and almost no voters saying they plan to back a third-party candidate. And while the result indicates a state that’s still too close to call, Republicans should be concerned about Harris’ showing in North Carolina, said Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper.

Even more so than other swing states, Cooper said, North Carolina “is a must-win for Donald Trump. There, of course, is a path to the White House for Kamala Harris that does not include North Carolina. Joe Biden carved that path perfectly in the 2020 election, so we know that's possible. For Donald Trump? He just doesn't get there without North Carolina.”

The poll of likely North Carolina voters, conducted from Sept. 4 through Sept. 7, surveyed 900 people. It was conducted in partnership with SurveyUSA, an independent polling company. The presidential poll reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error but takes into account more factors and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measurement of statistical certainty.

The election pitting the Democratic vice president against the Republican former president is expected to focus heavily on a small number of closely contested states in the two months remaining until Election Day — North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

The two major presidential campaigns are expected to focus nearly all of their time, money and attention on those few states in the coming weeks. Trump was in Charlotte Friday. Harris will visit Greensboro and Charlotte later this week.

“The important thing to remember is that North Carolina went for Trump by just 1.35% [in 2020],” said Ken Alper, president of SurveyUSA. “It’s very much a tossup. Especially when you know, fundamentally, not a lot has changed.”

The poll also asked voters for their impression of the candidates, regardless of who they’ll vote for. Those results more or less matched the voting preferences reflected in the poll: Harris was slightly more likely to be viewed favorably by voters, while Trump was slightly more likely to be viewed unfavorably.

Overall, about 4% of likely voters said they had no opinion of either Trump or Harris, which matches up with the 5% who say they’re undecided on who to vote for. It’s those voters who could decide who wins North Carolina and, potentially, the presidency.

The first debate between Harris and Trump is scheduled for 9 p.m. Tuesday, hosted by ABC News. Alper said that could help some of those few remaining undecided voters make up their minds.

Suburban battle

The poll shows a nearly double-digit swing away from Trump in North Carolina in the six months since the March poll was published. It comes more than a month after Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

“Those who said they were undecided before Biden left the race — and those who said that they were voting third party — the lion's share of them are going to Harris right now,” Alper said. “So we’ll see if that holds true.”

Voters who aren’t affiliated with any political party are the largest voting bloc in North Carolina — and the Democratic Party’s change from Biden to Harris appears to have motivated a substantial number of them to move their support away from Trump.

“Harris picked up those ‘soft Democrats’ who just weren't quite sure about Joe Biden,” Cooper said.

One in every five unaffiliated voters who had supported Trump in March now say they support Harris or are undecided.

• In the March poll, Trump led Biden among unaffiliated voters 49% to 41%.
• In the September poll, Harris leads Trump among unaffiliated voters 43% to 40%.

The gender imbalance between the candidates also appears to have reversed since March, with Harris erasing much of the gap Biden had faced among men while also growing the gap Trump faces among women voters.

• In March, Trump led Biden by 14 points among men. Biden led Trump by 4 points among women.
• In September, Trump leads Harris by 3 points among men. Harris leads Trump by 9 points among women.

In North Carolina, as in many other states, the urban areas tend to lean heavily Democratic while the rural areas tend to lean heavily Republican. Many races are decided in the suburban parts of the state — where the new WRAL News Poll shows Harris is ahead, in large part due to her support among suburban women.

• Harris is up in the suburbs 49% to 44%, a result that almost entirely matches the overall statewide result.
• Trump leads Harris among suburban men, 47% to 45%.
• Harris leads Trump among suburban women, 54% to 40%.

Biden boost

Overall, voters seem happy with the fact that Biden chose to drop out of the race. In March, only 39% of North Carolinians said they were happy with the idea of a Biden-Trump rematch. But now that it’s Harris versus Trump, 63% say they’re happy with the matchup.

That about-face is almost entirely driven by Democrats who had been wary of a Biden reelection campaign; 77% of Democrats now say they’re happy with the matchup, up from 29% when Biden was still in the race.

Trump hasn’t been able to win over many of the likely voters who said they were previously undecided when Biden was in the race. About half say they’re still undecided, but the other half has almost entirely gone to Harris.

Similarly, the poll indicates that Harris’ campaign may be succeeding in reaching voters who would’ve backed other candidates — or might not have voted at all — if she hadn’t entered the race. Just 88% of the voters who said they’re now planning to vote for Harris also said they would’ve voted for Biden.

Meredith College pollster David McLennan said one datapoint in the WRAL poll that stuck out to him was that Harris was doing better than Trump among lower-income North Carolinians, typically a group that tends to back Trump.

“Maybe it's some of her messaging about trying to help people out by giving middle class tax cuts and things like that,” McLennan said. “It may just be simply because she's a new candidate, and Biden didn't seem to be able to do anything for working class people. … Certainly the enthusiasm gap was there when Biden was in the race, and so people just said, ‘Oh, I don't really like either choice.’”

The poll also asked about voters’ general opinions of each candidate and their vice presidential nominees, regardless of who they plan to vote for. Those favorability polls more or less match with the overall polling in the race.

• Harris had a +4 favorability rating overall — slightly more positive than negative — with 50% viewing her favorably and 46% viewing her unfavorably.
• Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, had a +5 favorability rating, with 40% viewing him favorably, 35% viewing him unfavorably and the rest not having an opinion.
• Trump had a -9 favorability rating overall — meaning North Carolina voters tend to have a negative view of him — with 44% viewing him favorably and 53% viewing him unfavorably.
• His running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, had a -6 rating, with 35% viewing him favorably, 41% viewing him unfavorably and the rest not having an opinion.