Model shows COVID spread slowing this winter if these two important conditions are met

New projections from an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill paint a positive picture of herd immunity and fewer COVID-19 cases through the coming winter.

Justin Lessler is one of the coordinators of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a collaborative effort between universities nationwide that takes projections from teams all around the country and balances them out statistically.

Its latest projection for North Carolina says we’ve already hit the peak for coronavirus infections from the delta variant.

It suggests that, if children get vaccinated and if no new, more infectious variant emerges, the pandemic could be mostly a memory by next spring.

Lessler and his team are optimistic because so many people in the United States have either been vaccinated or have had COVID. "That's creating immunity, and that immunity eventually has the effect of taking away people for the virus to infect, kind of using up the fuel of the viral fire," he said. "That causes the virus to start to recede."

He warns that the two contingencies – vaccination for children and the presence of a new variant – make all the difference.

A projection that includes the development of a new, more infectious variant shows cases climbing in early 2022. UNC-Chapel Hill virologist Dirk Dittmer thinks that scenario is likely because of holiday travel and because the virus is always evolving.

"We will probably see another variant that spreads better," he said. "Whether that variant leads to more hospitalization, however, is very different."

Dittmer says rising vaccination and immunity rates should help make the next wave less deadly.

"If we don't achieve the vaccine levels, or if the vaccine doesn't last as long as we think it does, it all resets to zero. And that's the much more scarier scenario that I'm worried about," he said.

Lessler is more optimistic, but he doesn’t want people to think they can relax. The delta wave is not over yet.

"What it says to me is, things are bad now, but things are going to get better. So, take those few extra weeks or months of being careful. You will be able to start, you know, relaxing a little bit eventually," he said.