Weather

A closer look at the return of our roller coaster temperature trend

Here's a closer look at the return of our roller coaster temperature trend.

Posted 2022-02-17T13:47:42+00:00 - Updated 2022-02-17T14:30:01+00:00

Above normal temperatures are likely for the second half of the month. The darker the shade of orange/red, the higher confidence there is in the forecast. While a few cold days may mix in, it's looking very spring-like in the long range.

WRAL meterologist Zach Maloch

Two weeks have passed since Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, marking the continuation of winter, but our roller coaster temperature trend foreshadows the arrival of spring.

Don’t be alarmed. Winter is still in full force as the vernal equinox, or the beginning of spring, is still a month away -- March 20 at 11:33 a.m. Nonetheless, we are starting to see the return of erratic temperatures, making many of us ready for spring’s return.

High temperatures over the last five days combined with the next five days really show the roller coaster temperature trend.

The weeks that make up late-winter and early-spring are associated with quite the whirlwind of weather across the country. Strong storm systems, like the one we are currently tracking in the WRAL Severe Weather Center, can cause erratic temperature trends, severe storms and even winter storms. Simply said, weather’s unpredictability is on full display.

To better understand why we see such variations in weather, we must break down the current jet stream pattern. Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

The winds blow from west to east in jet streams, but the flow often shifts to the north and south. The actual appearance of jet streams is a result from the complex interactions between many variables -- such as the location of high and low pressure systems, warm and cold air and seasonal changes.

Seasonal changes, like the one we are just beginning, occur because jet streams "follow the sun." As the sun's elevation increases each day in the spring, the average latitude of the jet stream shifts poleward.

When analyzing the current jet stream pattern, we see a big trough, or dip, in the jet stream across the western half of the country and a ridge in the eastern half. The high winds traveling through the jet stream work to create our active pattern that causes storm systems to form and strengthen as they travel across the country.

As we continue through the last month of winter and towards the beginning of spring, expect our varying weather patterns to continue. Regardless of what weather comes our way, the WRAL Severe Weather Team will be there every step of the way. North Carolina’s weather is unpredictable, and WRAL is the station to turn to as erratic weather patterns come our way.