Can NC Democrats use Mark Robinson to break the GOP supermajority? Races to watch

North Carolinians across the state will elect a new governor this week, but political insiders say a much smaller group of people — voters in a select few legislative districts — will ultimately determine the limits of the new executive’s power.

Republicans currently hold 60% of the state’s legislative seats — meaning they hold a supermajority capable of overriding vetoes by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper if they vote together. The GOP has used that power to bypass Democrats and enact policy tightening abortion and immigration enforcement laws, sending more public funds to private schools, and limiting rights of transgender youth.

If Democrats pick up just one seat in either the state Senate or state House of Representatives this week, they’ll break the GOP’s supermajority and can then halt or force compromises on Republican-authored legislation.

And this year, Democrats believe Republican legislative candidates will be dragged down by a Republican at the top of the ticket: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor, whose divisive statements on abortion, women, Jewish people and the LGBTQ community — along with recent allegations that he made lewd and racist comments on a pornographic website more than a decade ago — have worried some Republicans about his viability in the general election. Robinson, who denies the allegations, trailed Democrat Josh Stein by a wide margin heading into this week.

Republican strategists say they’re not concerned about his impact on other races. But that hasn’t stopped Democrats from using him as a weapon.

In campaign advertisements across multiple platforms, Democrats are accusing Republican legislative candidates of supporting some of Robinson’s most controversial claims. Robinson’s comments on abortion are especially useful to Democrats in an election where reproductive rights are a top concern for liberal and moderate voters.

Republican legislators last year replaced a law allowing abortion up to the 20th week of pregnancy with one banning most abortions after the 12th week of pregnancy. GOP leaders have cast the new law, which includes exceptions for rape and incest, as a compromise. But Democrats have elevated some of Robinson’s comments in ads to claim that his supporters would go even further — a strategy that may have helped Stein build a 39-point lead among suburban women, a key voting bloc.

When it comes to abortion, Republican legislative candidates have been less candid about their views than Robinson. So Democrats are trying to tie Republicans to Robinson using any material they can — social media posts, photos, fundraiser invitations — to imply GOP candidates support his views.

Democrats didn’t use previous Republican gubernatorial candidates — such as Dan Forest in 2020 or Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016 — against legislative candidates in the same way. That’s because internal polling showed that Forest and McCrory had higher favorability ratings than Robinson, said Morgan Jackson, a top Democratic strategist in North Carolina who works for Stein’s campaign. A WRAL News Poll conducted in late October found that Robinson was viewed favorably by 32% of likely voters and unfavorably by 49%.

Robinson didn’t respond to requests to comment.

Some Republican strategists predicted years ago that some of Robinson’s comments would make it hard for him to win a gubernatorial race, something the GOP has done only three times in the past 40 years.

Robinson’s path to victory got even harder after Sept. 19, when CNN reported that, between 2008 and 2012, Robinson used an alias on a pornographic site to refer to himself as a “Black Nazi,” call for the reinstatement of slavery, and describe sexual acts. Robinson has denied the allegations and recently sued CNN for defamation.

The Republican Governors Association, which had spent millions helping Robinson before CNN published its report, halted its financial support of Robinson. Many Republican candidates — including former President Donald Trump — have distanced themselves from Robinson on the campaign trail.

Races to watch

Few Republican legislative candidates have publicly disavowed Robinson or called on him to drop out of the race — something Democrats are pointing out on the campaign trail across the state. The attacks could prove especially potent in swing districts where Republicans are playing defense.

Frank Sossamon (R) vs. Bryan Cohn (D). Sossamon is a first-termer who won the left-leaning district in 2022 by just 732 votes. He faces reelection in District 32, where residents supported Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election by 5 percentage points, or about 2,300 votes. Cohn is attacking Sossamon for continuing to campaign with Robinson after CNN’s reporting. On social media, Cohn posted a photo of Sossamon attending an Oct. 16 campaign event for Robinson in Henderson. Cohn used that photo in a campaign ad he’s promoting on Facebook. “The whole world saw Mark Robinson for who he really was and got as far from him as possible. Not Rep Frank Sossamon,” Cohn said in his post. They say you can tell a lot about a person by the company he keeps.”

Through a spokesperson, Sossamon declined an interview with WRAL. Instead, he provided a statement that doesn’t mention Robinson by name. “I am a pastor, I don’t turn anyone away,” Sossamon said in the statement.

He highlighted his support for legislation that lowered taxes and increased funding for teachers. “I will continue to stay focused on working for the benefit of everyone in Granville and Vance Counties,” he said.

Lisa Stone Barnes (R) vs. James Mercer (D). Barnes is seeking her third term representing a senate district that includes all of Vance, Franklin and Nash counties. She won reelection by 10 percentage points in 2022, but her district is still considered competitive. Voters in her district supported Trump in the 2020 election by only 862 votes, or less than 1 percentage point.

A television ad attacking Barnes describes her as an early supporter of Robinson. Barnes posted a photo of herself with Robinson at the 2018 NC GOP convention on her Instagram account. In 2021, she posted on social media about holding a fundraiser with Robinson. On Facebook in April 2023, Republican state Rep. Allen Chesser posted a photo of himself with Barnes and Robinson at an event in Nash County. In February, Kyle Pritchard, the mayor of Spring Hope, posted a photo of Barnes and Robinson together on his Facebook page.

In an interview, Barnes said attending events with Robinson and taking photos with him doesn’t mean she endorses everything he’s ever said.

“I don’t agree with everything my husband says,” Barnes told WRAL. Same goes for Robinson’s comments.

“[Robinson] has said certain things, that’s his opinion,” she said. “It’s separate from my views.”

Barnes accused Democrats of using Robinson to try to distract voters from the issues Republicans say they’re winning on, such as the economy.

“They're not asking me about abortion,” Barnes said. “They're talking about buying groceries and feeding their children and buying clothes for their children and buying gas.”

She described the attacks on her show that Democrats are desperate and “have nothing to run on except instilling fear in women.”

Asked whether she’d vote to tighten the state’s abortion laws, Barnes declined to answer.

“I can't say what I would do until I see the legislation,” she said.

Erin Paré (R) vs. Safiyah Jackson (D). Paré was elected to represent southern Wake County in House District 37 in 2020, when voters in her district supported Trump by nearly 7 percentage points. The area has trended more liberal over time, however. Paré’s constituents supported Budd by 4 percentage points — or 1,786 votes — in the 2022 U.S. Senate race.

Jackson is airing a television ad that describes Paré and Robinson as “peas in a pod” on abortion and references a Facebook post from 2021 where Paré referred to Robinson as “a great man.”

Robinson spoke at a fundraiser for Paré that year. Paré said that, at the time, Robinson was still early in his career — he had not yet made some of his comments on abortion or said that “some folks need killing.”

While Paré has known Robinson for years, she told WRAL that her views on abortion are distinct from Robinson’s. Robinson says he supports the current state law but has previously called for replacing it with a law that bans most abortions after the 6th week of pregnancy.

That’s before many women know they’re pregnant, Paré noted. Apart from talking at Republican events, Paré said her and Robinson don’t have much of a relationship. “We don't have any massively personal connection other than that,” Paré said, referring to the events. “I see him places and it’s all been sort of cordial.”

After CNN reported on Robinson’s alleged comments on a pornographic site, Paré posted on social media that the details of the article were “completely abhorrent and indefensible” and that “it is (Robinson’s) responsibility to prove” the comments weren’t his.

Will it work?

The Democrats aren’t limiting their Robinson-related attacks only to Republicans with documented connections to the lieutenant governor. They’re also using the attacks against candidates who have little to no ties to Robinson.

State Rep. Terence Everitt, a Democrat who’s running for an open state Senate seat in northern Wake County, falsely accused his Republican opponent, Ashlee Adams, of “working with Mark Robinson to take abortion rights away.” Neither Everitt’s campaign nor the state Democratic Party produced any hard evidence — such as photos or video — showing that Adams ever campaigned with Robinson. They didn’t produce evidence that Adams wants stricter abortion laws, either.

State Sen. Lisa Grafstein, a Democrat running for a state Senate seat in southern Wake County, falsely accused her Republican opponent of supporting some of Robinson’s comments about education. After CNN published its report on Robinson, Lassiter publicly called on Robinson to suspend his campaign, saying they don’t share the same values.

Jackson, the Democratic strategist, estimated that using Robinson against Republican legislative candidates could reduce their support by 2 to 4 percentage points — depending on the candidate, the district, and the evidence of the two candidates together.

“We've done focus groups with women that were pro-life and pro-Trump, hardcore Republicans who say, ‘I can't vote for that [candidate] because of how he talks about women’,” he said.

Republican Senate Leader Phil Berger, speaking to reporters on Oct. 24, said internal GOP research has shown no evidence the Democrats’ strategy is working. North Carolina voters have a history of splitting their ballot.

“The polling that we have done does not indicate that there’s any appreciable impact on the state senate races from the situation with the lieutenant governor,” Berger said.

Stephen Wiley, director of the GOP House Caucus, said the attacks are bouncing off Republican House candidates, too. Voters may be influenced by one of the Republican candidate’s specific policy positions, Wiley said.

However, he said: “We have not seen people say, ‘Because of Mark Robinson, now I’m not going to vote Republican the rest of the way. I don’t think that person exists in significant numbers.”

The most tangible effect Robinson has had to date, Wiley said, is monetary. After Robinson fell behind in the polls, Stein’s campaign transferred about $12 million to the state Democratic Party. The party, in turn, is spending a lot of that money on legislative races.

Kate Frauenfelder, a spokesperson for the Stein campaign, addressed his donations in a statement to WRAL: "Josh Stein wants Democrats up and down the ballot to succeed and believes that winning the governor’s race is necessary but not sufficient to restore balance in Raleigh and build a safer, stronger North Carolina.”

A variety of factors will influence whether Republicans keep their supermajority, said David McLennan, director of a poll at Meredith College. The presidential race, Republican lawmakers’ votes on abortion, and the parties’ turnout operations will play big roles.

If Republicans lose the supermajority, though, “Robinson will be a convenient scapegoat,” McLennan said.