Republicans, Democrats agree on one thing: Economy is driving their vote

It’s the economy, stupid.

That phrase — made popular by Democratic political strategist Jim Carville more than 30 years ago — still rings true. It’s one thing that North Carolina Republicans and Democrats can agree on ahead of Tuesday’s election.

Voters across the political spectrum said the economy will be one of the most important issues to them as they cast their ballot in November’s election, according to the results of a new WRAL News poll.

The poll, conducted by independent researcher SurveyUSA, asked 853 likely voters about a variety of issues and how important each would be as they cast their vote. Many of the issues show a sharp disagreement between the parties.

But not the economy.

Nearly half of respondents assigned the economy a 10, the highest value. More than eight in 10 ranked the economy a seven or higher on the scale. There was little difference between registered Republicans (51% gave it a 10) and registered Democrats (46% gave it a 10).

The economy can mean many different things to different people — inflation and prices, unemployment, wages.

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has made inflation and higher prices one of his top issues, criticizing the Biden-Harris administration for its energy and spending policies, which he says have elevated costs for American consumers.

"She caused the inflation by screwing up my energy policies," Trump said during a rally in Rocky Mount on Wednesday. "She caused the inflation, and spending way too much money on the green new scam. She caused it. But why didn't she do something about it?"

He is proposing large tariffs on most imported goods — a strategy that many economists say would worsen inflation. Business executives told The Washington Post they plan to raise prices now to offset the potential tariffs. Trump has repeatedly said other nations will pay the tariff and they will bring in money for the U.S.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, also argues that Trump’s tariffs will amount to a national sales tax and raise prices. She has outlined plans to cut taxes for more than 100 million middle-class Americans, enact the first-ever federal ban on price gouging on groceries and make housing more affordable.

"At the top of my list is bringing down your cost of living," Harris said during a rally in Raleigh on Wednesday. "That will be my focus every single day as president."

The WRAL poll found that more North Carolina adults are optimistic (48%) than pessimistic (32%) about their own family’s economic outlook for the next year. Registered Republicans were split (41% optimistic, 42% pessimistic), while Democrats (65% optimistic, 22% pessimistic) and unaffiliated voters (40% optimistic, 29% pessimistic) were more positive.

“We're seeing an electorate that has already decided, and they are putting all events through the filter of what they already believe about these two candidates,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina.

“So whether it is disaster relief or the economy, or you can plug in almost any issue imaginable and the whole thing is going to be put through a partisan filter — through a Harris, Trump filter — before the voter even responds. So I think it's exactly what we're seeing here is this kind of motivated reasoning. No matter what the next crisis is, if you're a Trump supporter, you think he's gonna do a better job. If you're a Harris supporter, you think she'll do a better job.”

More than 3.1 million North Carolina voters have already cast their ballot as of Tuesday afternoon, nearly 40% of all the state’s registered voters. Election day is Nov. 5. The survey was conducted between Oct. 23 and Oct. 29.

The economy was also the top issue for voters in a WRAL News poll in September.

Other issues polled showed wide discrepancies between the parties.

• 52% of Republicans gave immigration and border security a 10, while just 18% of Democrats scored it that high.
• 54% of Democrats gave defending democracy a 10, while just 38% of Republicans scored it that high.
• 50% of Democrats scored health care as a 10 and 32% of Republicans did.
• 42% of Republicans placed national security and international conflicts as a 10 with 22% of Democrats doing the same.

The top issues for Republicans were immigration and border security, the economy and national security and international conflicts. The top issues for Democrats were defending democracy, health care and the economy.

More than 40% of Democrats ranked education and abortion as 10s. More than three in 10 women ranked those issues as 10s.

“If we see a tremendous turnout among women — higher than we’ve seen in 2022, 2016 — we may be able to say, well, abortion was the real driver for the women turning out,” said David McLennan, a professor and political pollster at Meredith College.

There has been concern among Democrats that Israel’s war in Gaza — and the Biden administration’s support of Israel — could hurt Harris among young voters. Thirteen percent of voters aged 18 to 24 ranked national security and international conflicts at a 10, far less than any other age group.

For young voters, several issues received the highest percentage of 10s: economy (22%), environment (21%), education (21%), defending democracy (20%), abortion (19%), mental health and addiction (19%) and gun rights and gun control (18%).

“The Gaza situation is very important,” McLennan said. “But my polling and other polls about issues shows that even among 18- to 24-year-olds, it’s not the top issue.”

The issues have a credibility interval of 4.1 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error but takes into account more factors and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measurement of statistical certainty.