Vulnerable incumbent U.S. Rep. Don Davis, D-NC, ramped up his campaign fundraising over this summer and began the final month of the election with more than $2.5 million still left to spend on ads, get-out-the-vote efforts and other work for his reelection campaign.

Newly filed campaign finance documents show Davis raised $2 million in July, August and September — bringing his total haul for this election to just under $5.2 million, as of the start of October.

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His Republican opponent, Laurie Buckhout, trails in fundraising: She has raised $3.9 million, including $1.6 million she personally loaned her campaign. Of her $3.9 million total haul, $1.3 million came in the most recent quarter from July through September.

Buckhout entered the final month of the campaign with $992,000 left in the bank, less than half as much as Davis' $2.5 million cash on hand.

There's also a Libertarian candidate in the race, Tom Bailey. Federal Election Commission documents show that his campaign hasn't yet reported raising or spending any money.

The highly competitive district they're competing for, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, covers the northeastern quarter of the state. Stretching from the Outer Banks to the outskirts of the Triangle, it covers nearly two dozen rural counties in areas around Elizabeth City, Rocky Mount, Wilson, Goldsboro, Kinston, Henderson and Oxford.

An analysis of past election results shows that in the 2020 elections, the district voted slightly more liberal than the state as a whole. But in the 2022 midterms, the district voted slightly more conservative than the state as a whole. Both years, the district was within just a few points of the state average — and North Carolina is expected to be closely contested again this year, figuring as a key battleground state in the presidential race.

District's national implications

The 1st District is the only competitive U.S. House of Representatives district in North Carolina this year, out of the state's 14 seats. Due to the new political district maps redrawn by state lawmakers last year, Republicans are expected to win either a 10-4 or 11-3 advantage in the 2024 elections, depending on the outcome of the 1st District race between Davis and Buckhout.

The outcome of the race could also play a large role in determining which party controls the U.S. House starting in 2025. Republicans control the House currently, but by a razor-thin margin.

Republicans are seen as to likely flip control of the U.S. Senate in the 2024 elections, based on polling data. So if Republican Donald Trump wins the presidency, a Democratic-controlled House could thwart much of his agenda whereas a Republican-controlled House could give Trump wide leeway to enact his policies.

Conversely, if Democrats can hold onto control of the Senate and also elect Kamala Harris as president, then whether she's able to enact her own policies would come down to which party controls the House.

Millions more from other groups

With the 1st District's status as the only competitive congressional seat in a key presidential swing state, national attention on northeastern North Carolina has been intense.

In addition to the more than $9 million the two candidates have combined to raise themselves, two Washington-based groups focused on winning control of Congress — The National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — have pumped millions more into the race on ads, attempting to drag the other side's candidate through the mud.

Of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, the DCCC and NRCC are focusing their spending on only a few dozen this year, including Davis' seat. As of the end of August, FEC filings show, the DCCC had raised $250 million and the NRCC had raised $183 million.

Both Davis' and Buckhout's campaigns also have various joint fundraising accounts, through which they split money with other groups.

Davis has a joint fundraising account with the state Democratic Party, called the Don Davis Victory Fund, as well as a joint fundraising account shared with two dozen other Democrats in competitive congressional seats nationwide, called House Victory Project 2024.

The Buckhout NC Victory Fund partners with her campaign, the state Republican Party and a third entity called the "Fighting First PAC." Another joint fundraising account, NC Strong, raises money for several Republican candidates in North Carolina who aren't currently incumbents: Buckhout, Tim Moore, Pat Harrigan, Brad Knott and Addison McDowell. Of that group, only Buckhout is in a competitive race.

  • Don Davis Victory Fund: Raised $81,451.85 and spent $3,514.57.
    • House Victory Project: Raised $10.7 million, of which about $300,000 has been spent on Davis.
      • Buckhout NC Victory Fund: Raised $18,100 and spent it all.
        • NC Strong: Raised $30,501 and spent $2,902.14.

          Finally, half a dozen other outside groups have spent around $600,000 more on ads directly support or opposing the candidates, almost entirely on Buckhout's behalf. Most of that sum has come from the Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC controlled by GOP leadership in the U.S. House.