NC voters split on economic outlook, but largely feeling OK about the future, WRAL News Poll shows

North Carolinians are more optimistic than pessimistic about the economy, an exclusive WRAL News Poll shows — a potential sign of good political news for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris who, as vice president, has largely been tied to President Joe Biden’s record on the economy.

Tuesday’s poll of likely North Carolina voters shows that when asked how they felt about their family’s economic outlook over the next year, 45% said they were optimistic and 33% felt pessimistic. The other 22% weren’t sure.

The poll of 900 North Carolina adults, released Tuesday, was conducted from Sept. 4 through Sept. 7. It was conducted in partnership with SurveyUSA, an independent polling company. The question on the economy reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error but takes into account more factors and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measurement of statistical certainty.

Pollsters have frequently said voters’ opinion on the state of the economy tends to be influenced by their political views. The new economic numbers come on the heels of a WRAL News Poll on Monday that showed the presidential race more or less tied, but with a slight edge to Harris.

Republicans have hammered Biden over rising inflation during his presidency, and political observers have questioned whether Harris would inherit that reputation or if she’d be able to convince voters that she’d be a better steward of the economy.

Former President Donald Trump and other Republicans had seen the economy as a key argument against Biden when he was still running for election; one of the biggest political questions now that Harris is running instead is whether voters who had soured on Biden because of inflation will also blame Harris, or if she’ll be able to start from a clean slate.

Meredith College political science professor David McLennan said Harris has very publicly been trying to tell voters she’ll have a different approach to the economy — most notably in a recent speech in Raleigh where she rolled out her own, new economic platform — and the question now is just whether voters buy in.

“She's distancing herself from some of Joe Biden's positions,” McLennan said. “She's taken positions on housing — building 3 million new homes, giving a tax credit for first-time homebuyers, that sort of thing — that, for the Millennial generation who are struggling to buy a house, may be very attractive.”

But at the same time, the poll Monday found that the most pro-Trump generation other than senior citizens are Millennials, who also are the most likely to be hit by inflation as first-time homebuyers or as parents of young children.

“Harris is doing well among 18- to 24-year-olds, but it's the 25- to 34-year-olds where Trump is doing well,” McLennan said. “That kind of cuts against conventional wisdom, which is that Democrats tend to do better with Millennials and Gen Z. … It's probably a combination of economic factors and still kind of a wait-and-see with Harris.”

Broken down into other demographics, the numbers showed a more complex picture of how voters in North Carolina feel about their families’ economic outlook.

• White women are the most worried, with just 36% feeling optimistic and another 29% unsure.
• Black men are feeling the best, with 63% optimistic about the economy and just 16% feeling pessimistic.
• There was a political bent to the findings, with 40% of Republicans and 59% of Democrats saying they feel optimistic about the economy.
• People’s income had less of an impact than their political leanings. The poll found economic optimism among 43% of people making less than $40,000 a year, 46% of people making between $40,000 and $80,000, and 49% of people making more than $80,000.

Political scientist Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University said with politics appearing to drive people’s opinions on the economy as much if not more than their own income levels, it’s clear that Harris and Trump will each have opinions to make their own arguments on the economy.

Harris, in addition to her proposed housing policies, has also advocated for more aggressive crackdowns on large corporations suspected of price-gouging or antitrust violations. Critics have called those policies akin to socialism. Trump has proposed implementing more tariffs and deporting undocumented immigrants. Critics say those policies would lead to large increases in prices for food and goods.

“This battle over who the economy benefits is one about framing more than anything else,” Cooper said. “... So the two parties aren't battling as much about whether we should talk about the economy, but about how that issue is framed.”

The economic optimism numbers in WRAL’s September poll were virtually unchanged from a previous WRAL News Poll in March. So McLennan said while that’s not necessarily bad news for Harris — since voters are more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic — it is at least an indication she still has work to do to separate herself from Biden.

“It's going to be difficult for people who are experiencing continued high prices in the rental and purchased-home markets, and are still seeing grocery store prices being higher than they were used to,” he said. “Her messaging may only have a limited effect there. But we're seeing her try.”

Another factor that could help Harris’ campaign is that the Federal Reserve is set to meet next week, and is widely expected to cut interest rates, which would lead to lower borrowing costs. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested in a recent speech that high interest rates have helped tamp down inflation. A lower Fed benchmark rate would likely lead to lower costs for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and other forms of debt.