2024 Oscars Picks: What will win & what should win
The 96th annual Academy Awards will air this Sunday at a new, earlier time - 7 p.m.
Hollywood's most important awards are determined in a vote by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which is now made up of upwards of 10,000 professionals of various backgrounds in the film industry. Movies eligible for the 96th awards had to be released to theaters in at least a limited capacity in 2023.
Here are my predictions for which films and artists will take home the biggest prizes at this year's Oscars.
Best Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Oppenheimer
Should have been nominated: Air
Christopher Nolan's unique three-hour biopic about the morally gray figure has been the front-runner to win Best Picture since it debuted in July. Its sustained lead for over six months on the betting market is a rarity. The position is well-earned: Oppenheimer is either the best or second-best film by Nolan, who is the best director of the 21st Century. Nolan's longtime co-producer and wife Emma Thomas is also deserving of a career-defining honor.
As Oppenheimer's victory feels like an inevitability, the most interesting subplot surrounding Best Picture doesn't even have to do with the other 2024 nominees. What if Denis Villeneuve's recently released sci-fi masterpiece Dune Part Two made its original Nov. 3 release date and was eligible for the 96th Academy Awards? With the miraculous sequel already looking like a shoe-in for the 97th awards, Oppenheimer vs. Dune Part Two could be a debate that lasts ages.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper – Maestro, Colman Domingo – Rustin, Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers, Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer, Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Will win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Should win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Should have been nominated: Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
Murphy is a pretty safe bet to win Best Actor. He is also quite deserving, as Oppenheimer's bone-chilling effect doesn't exist without the complex pain of Murphy's performance. I do have a hard time picking against Jeffrey Wright, who was downright awesome delivering the satirical elements of American Fiction.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening – Nyad, Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon, Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan – Maestro, Emma Stone – Poor Things
Will win: Emma Stone - Poor Things
Should win: Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Should have been nominated: Margot Robbie - Barbie
Emma Stone's wild and wacky performance in Poor Things was made to be eaten up by the Academy come voting time. Poor Things and Stone's performance are a little too off-putting for me, so I'll personally go with Sandra Hüller here. In Anatomy of a Fall, Hüller's work is far more complex and while her character's circumstances are still unusual, she is far easier to relate to.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K Brown – American Fiction, Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon, Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer, Ryan Gosling – Barbie, Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Will win: Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
Should win: Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
Should have been nominated: Matt Damon - Oppenheimer
There may not be a bigger favorite to win this year than Robert Downey Jr. for his turn as the ultimate hater Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer. The 21st Century's top-grossing movie star will finally get something to honor his contribution to the industry.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer, Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple, America Ferrera – Barbie, Jodie Foster – Nyad, Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Should have been nominated: Viola Davis - Air
Joy Randolph is as big of a favorite as Downey Jr. - both have converted every supporting nod into a win during the awards season. She gives the most memorable, heart-wrenching performance in a The Holdovers film that has a few of them. The Academy might be a little tired of Viola Davis, but her work as Michael Jordan's mother Delores in Air was commanding.
Best Directing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet, Killers of the Flower Moon – Martin Scorsese, Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan, Poor Things – Yorgos Lanthimos, The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer
Will win: Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Should win: Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan
Should have been nominated: Barbie - Great Gerwig
Just like Oppenheimer itself and its stars Murphy and Downey Jr., director Christopher Nolan is highly deserving of being honored by the Academy. And by all accounts, he will win on Sunday. I'm still baffled at how Greta Gerwig was not nominated here for bringing Barbie to life and making a worldwide phenomenon out of the concept. That film was wildly inventive and had one of the most distinctive visions of the year. Choosing Martin Sorcsesee, who was far off the top of his game with Killers of the Flower Moon, over Gerwig is an incredible miss by the Academy.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: American Fiction - Cord Jefferson, Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach, Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan, Poor Things - Tony McNamara, The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer
Will win: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan
Should win: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan
Should have been nominated: BlackBerry - Matt Johnson & Matthew Miller
Nolan's non-linear screenplay for Oppenheimer is so sensational that its hard to imagine how he was even able to crack it. Also, check out BlackBerry if you haven't seen it. That film went way too far under the radar.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet & Arthur Harari, The Holdovers - David Hemingson, Maestro - Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer, May December - Samy Burch, Past Lives - Celine Song
Will win: The Holdovers - David Hemingson
Should win: The Holdovers - David Hemingson
Should have been nominated: Saltburn - Emerald Fennell
Despite only having three real characters, Hemingson's Holdovers screenplay tackles a lot of ground. For Saltburn, the weirdness of that movie was reportedly improvised and did not come from its screenplay, which I found to be inventive and forward-thinking.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: El Conde - Ed Lachman, Killers of the Flower Moon - Rodrigo Prieto, Maestro - Matthew Libatique, Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema, Poor Things - Robbie Ryan
Will win: Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema
Should win: Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema
Should have been nominated: The Creator - Greig Fraser & Oren Soffer
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall - Laurent Sénéchal, The Holdovers - Kevin Tent, Killers of the Flower Moon Thelma Schoonmaker, Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame, Poor Things - Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Will win: Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
Should win: Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
Should have been nominated: Maestro - Michelle Tesoro
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran , Killers of the Flower Moon - Jacqueline West , Napoleon - Janty Yates & Dave Crossman, Oppenheimer - Ellen Mirojnick, Poor Things - Holly Waddington
Will win: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran
Should win: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City - Milena Canonero
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Golda - Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue; Maestro - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell, Oppenheimer, Luisa Abel; Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston; Society of the Snow - Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Will win: Maestro - Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell,
Should win: Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
Should have been nominated: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - Alexei Dmitriew & Cassie Russek
Best Production Design
Nominees: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spence; Killers of the Flower Moon - Jack Fisk, Set Decoration: Adam Willis; Napoleon - Arthur Max, Set Decoration: Elli Griff; Oppenheimer - Ruth De Jong, Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman; Poor Things - James Price and Shona Heath, Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
Will win: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spence
Should win: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spence
Should have been nominated: Asteroid City - Adam Stockhausen
Best Original Score
Nominees: American Fiction - Laura Karpman, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - John Williams, Killers of the Flower Moon - Robbie Robertson, Oppenheimer - Ludwig Göransson, Poor Things - Jerskin Fendrix
Will win: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Göransson
Should win: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Göransson
Should have been nominated: Barbie - Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt
Best Original Song
Nominees: "The Fire Inside", from Flamin' Hot, Music and Lyric by Diane Warren; "I'm Just Ken," from Barbie, Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt; "It Never Went Away," from American Symphony, Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson; "Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)," Music and Lyric by Scott George; "What Was I Made For?", from Barbie,Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
Will win: "What Was I Made For?", from Barbie
Should win: "What Was I Made For?", from Barbie
Should have been nominated: "Am I Dreaming?" from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Will win: The Creator
Should win: Godzilla Minus One
Should have been nominated: Poor Things
Best Sound
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Oppenheimer
Should have been nominated: Ferrari
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: "The Boy and the Heron", "Nimona,""Robot Dreams", "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Should win: The Boy and the Heron
Should have been nominated: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
