Just as North Carolinians were getting accustomed to a closer-to-normal life over the summer, the Delta variant, which is 50% more contagious than Alpha, hit. In the last four weeks, the average daily case rate has gone from around 1,000 to 6,628. Hospitalizations have similarly jumped—from 494 one month ago to 2,651 today.
What is of particular concern, according to Dr. Eric Eskioglu, Novant Health’s chief medical and scientific officer, is that the average age of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is 44, down from 61 in January. Additionally, patients tend to be sicker than those seen in the hospital during earlier surges.
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What to do? Get vaccinated. Over 90% of patients hospitalized in the last four weeks with COVID are unvaccinated. In a comment posted last week on NCDHHS, Dr. Eskioglu said, “I urge and plead with everyone to get vaccinated now."
Why is there a big surge now? In addition to the Delta variant being far more contagious than the Alpha variant, vaccination rates in the state have slowed. Only 58% of the adult population in NC have received both doses of the vaccine (63% have received one). To interrupt the cycle of transmission and achieve herd immunity, it is estimated, depending on the source one consults, that from 70 to 95% of the population needs to be fully vaccinated. The reason for this range is that as the mutations evolve and become more contagious, so, too, does our understanding of what percentage is needed to achieve herd immunity (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/keythingstoknow.html).
But what if I've had COVID? Aren't I immune? What every source informed by science agrees on is that the vaccine provides greater protection for a longer time than simply having had COVID.
Leading infectious disease expert, David Hamer, a faculty member of BU’s School of Public Health, School of Medicine, and National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories, stated, “After three to six months or so, the natural immunity (of having had the virus) begins to wane and the risk of reinfection returns. We are definitely seeing people develop reinfections. Receiving the vaccine after having COVID is like a booster effect, and therefore it’s much more effective. Studies have been done comparing those who had the disease versus those who did not, and those who got at least one shot after having COVID end up with very high levels of antibodies.”
Whether one has been vaccinated or not, the general consensus given the high positivity test rate of the Delta variant at the moment (12.8% on 8/16/21), is to wear a mask, avoid crowded areas, wash your hands and maintain safe distances. While masking has not been mandated yet, it is anticipated that it will be soon. In Raleigh, it may be as soon as later today. (https://abc11.com/covid-19-vaccine-nc-testing-test-near-me/10954481/)
What should you do if you suspect you may have COVID or that you have been exposed? Go get tested. You can find a testing site here.
What should you do if you want to get vaccinated? Vaccine providers convenient to your zip code can be found here.