Research predicts peak coronavirus deaths, shortages in mid-April

Health researchers are projecting that deaths and hospitalizations due to coronavirus will peak across the country in the middle of April – and North Carolina won't be far behind.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent population health research center at the University of Washington School of Medicine, published an interactive forecast showing how many people will be hospitalized, how many will need intensive care and how many will die per day as the United States works to "flatten the curve."

Researchers are updating the data and the projections daily on the site, which allows users to see statistics nationwide and state by state.

IHME factored in social distancing and other protective measures, but still predict that Americans will need thousands more hospital and ICU beds than the number available.

At the peak, as of March 30, IHME projects a shortage of almost 62,000 hospital beds nationwide. The predictions also show a need for almost 27,000 ventilators, although researchers say they're not able to project how short-supplied hospitals will be without better data about the equipment providers have on hand.

Through early August, a projected 82,000 people will die in the United States through August, the forecast model shows – even with stringent stay-at-home orders, shuttered educational facilities and travel limitations in place across the country.

But researchers note there's plenty of uncertainty: the model predicts the exact number of deaths falling between about 39,000 and 142,000.

In North Carolina, IHME projections as of March 30 show deaths peaking on April 22 at 56 per day, with a range of 33 to 86.

After the peak, IHME shows the number of daily deaths leveling off around June, reaching 1,700 total in North Carolina by Aug. 1.

In a briefing Monday, State Epidemiologist Dr. Zack Moore said he was aware of several forecasting models showing the impact of the virus on North Carolina, including the one from IHME. He said the state was working on its own projections, but did not provide details on when health officials would release those details.

The IHME model uses data on deaths resulting from COVID-19, rather than confirmed cases. The researchers said that's a more accurate method in the U.S., where testing has lagged behind countries like South Korea.

But the accuracy of their statistical model will likely depend on how strictly U.S. communities stick to advice and orders on social distancing.

"Even in Wuhan it was a full 27 days from implementation of social distancing to reaching peak level of daily deaths," IHME Director Christopher Murray wrote in the related research paper, which has not yet been peer reviewed.