Slimmer margins, new faces likely to affect NC lawmakers' 2023 agenda

A shift in the balance of power plus high turnover at the state legislature will likely mean a different mix of bills on the agenda as the 2023 legislative session gets underway this month.

Posted 9:09 p.m. Jan 2, 2023 — Updated 11:15 p.m. Jan 2, 2023

Laura Leslie

, WRAL Capitol Bureau Chief

RALEIGH, N.C. — The new session of the state legislature gets underway this month, and it's likely to bring more proposals on culture-war issues than we’ve seen in the last few years. Several new lawmakers could make some old battles less partisan this session.

Ever since Democrats broke the Republicans' veto-proof majorities in the House and Senate in 2018, the threat of a veto from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has dissuaded GOP leaders from advancing many bills on hot-button social issues.

But the balance of power has shifted in this new legislature. Republicans won enough seats in the November 2022 election to regain a veto-proof majority in the Senate, and they’re now just one vote away from a supermajority in the House as well. It means the GOP needs only one Democratic vote or absence on any given day to override Cooper's veto.

Meredith College political science professor David McLennan says that razor-thin margin means we’re likely to see more culture-war issues on the calendar, like abortion and LGBTQIA+ rights.

After the U.S. Supreme Court decision last year overturning the federal right to abortion, Republican legislative leaders said they plan to take up the issue this year. Current state law bans abortion after 20 weeks. House and Senate leaders say they’re looking at banning it after six to 12 weeks.

"I think it's going to be a very difficult position for Democrats, including Gov. Cooper, to have the kind of influence they've had over the last couple of years," McLennan told WRAL News.

"You see other states looking at restricting affirming medical care for transgender individuals. We could see that," McLennan added. "I think there could be a wide range of cultural issues."

NC Supreme Court strikes down state Senate map, voter ID law. Republican lawmakers plan to revisit both issues next year

Legislative leaders have already said they’ll reintroduce the Parents' Bill of Rights, which would banish sexual orientation and gender identity from the K-3 curriculum. It would also require teachers and staff through 12th grade to notify a student’s parents if a student is questioning their sexual identity, even in a confidential conversation with that staff member. The last version, House Bill 755, died in committee in 2022 after a veto threat from Cooper.

"We may see a wave of those bills being introduced this year," McLennan said. "We all remember HB2 from several years ago and the kind of uproar that caused. I don't know if we'll see that legislation reintroduced, but we could see something similar on a number of different topics."

LGBTQ+ advocates protest amid Senate vote on Parents' Bill of Rights legislation

Teaching about race is another likely area where legislation could resurface. In 2021, Cooper vetoed a bill that would have banned teaching about systemic racism.

Other bills previously vetoed by Cooper to make it easier to buy and carry guns could also reappear this year.

Legislature passes bill limiting how NC teaches on race, racism, but a veto looms

But some old battles may become less partisan. Due to redistricting, retirements, and running for other offices, several of the most socially conservative House lawmakers won’t be returning this year. That could open the door for some issues they opposed, like Medicaid expansion, which McLennan believes will finally pass in 2023, and even perhaps medical marijuana legalization.

"The [newly-elected] Republicans are younger, and on certain issues, a little bit more forward-thinking than some of the older people they're replacing," McLennan said. "So, you know, we can't necessarily see it as just a clear partisan divide on many of these issues, like it has been in the past."

Online sports gambling may face better odds this year as well. The Senate has already approved sports betting, but it did not pass the House. The opposition came despite backing from House leadership due to pushback from some of the members who won't be returning in 2023.

"The loss of a number of people who've been opposed to gambling writ large, but sports gambling particularly, could make that more doable," McLennan said. "I think many legislators, like Speaker [Tim] Moore, are looking around the country and saying, 'Well, why not us?'"

Gambling legalization bill all but dead in NC

Republican leaders have said it's too soon to say what legislation they'll advance. With so many new members in both parties and both chambers, they say they haven't yet gotten a good read on what their respective bodies are likely to support.

Cooper has steadfastly maintained that he believes House Democrats will stand firm to uphold his veto. However, Moore said he's had conversations with some Democrats about voting with the Republican majority, some on fiscal issues and some on social issues.

There are persistent rumors that a Democratic member or two may even switch parties. That would be rare, but not unheard-of. The last instance was in 2017, when Rep. Bill Brisson of Bladen County switched from Democrat to Republican. A lawmaker switching parties could give House Republicans a clear path to enact legislation over the governor's dissent.

The 2023 biennial session officially gets underway Jan. 11 with the election of chamber clerks and leaders. By law, legislators will then return home for a two-week organizational period. They're expected to start work near the end of the month.

Suggest A Correction