Sir Walter Wally predicts 6 more weeks of winter, while Snerd says early spring

Sir Walter Wally saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter on Sunday at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences. Snerd appeared at Garner's White Deer Park with the prediction of an early spring.

Posted 10:16 p.m. Feb 1, 2020 — Updated 11:40 p.m. Feb 2, 2020

Tony Rice

, WRAL contributor/NASA ambassador

GARNER, N.C. — Sir Walter Wally, Raleigh's favorite groundhog, saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter on Sunday at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences.

Wally's forecast contradicted that of Snerd, who appeared at Garner's White Deer Park with the prediction of an early spring.

Punxsutawney Phil also predicted an early spring in Gobbler's Knob, Pennsylvania, early Sunday morning.

With predictions that are essentially as accurate as a coin flip, none of these woodchucks will be earning certifications from the American Meteorological Society or National Weather Association.

The North Carolina Climate Office looked at Wally’s 20 predictions since 2000 and found him to correctly predict an early spring (above normal temperatures) or more winter (below normal temperatures) in Raleigh eleven times or 55%.

Records are not as complete for Garners land-beavers. Based on what I was able to find in town newsletters along with WRAL and News and Observer archives points to slightly better performance. Snerd and his Mortimer have correctly predicted higher or lower temperatures 8 out of the 13 years they’ve been doing it or a bit better than 61%.

Mortimer wisely retired at the top of his game with a 7 for 8 record in 2014.

The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club insists “there is only one Phil, all other groundhogs are imposters.” Phil’s predictions were correct for central North Carolina half of those same 20 years. NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information looked temperatures nationally and found Phil's performance to be about 40%.

In keeping with the coin flip theme, Phil, Snerd, Mortimer and Wally have only agreed in 10 of those 20 years.

With clear skies expected across central North Carolina Sunday, both Wally and Snerd are expected to see their shadows while Phil will likely emerge from his burrow to possible flurries. Source code for the scientific analysis of this very unscientific question is also available.

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