SETH EFFRON: Voter enthusiasm in key groups critical to election outcome

When voting ends and the winners of next Tuesday’s election in North Carolina are determined, the most significant factor in the outcomes may be who DIDN’T cast ballots. Voting does matter!

Voter enthusiasm – the personal drive to make sure a vote is cast – is what counts and one of the top pollsters in the nation says that’s going to be critical to the results in North Carolina.

While voters 18 to 44 years of age make up 44% of the state’s registered voters, they make up just 37% of those who say they’ll definitely vote in this election. By contrast, voters 60 and older make up 31% of the voters and 36% of those who say they’ll definitely be voting.

When asked how likely they were to vote, 66% of those younger than 45 said they’d definitely be voting while 90% of those older than 45 said they’d definitely vote.

For candidates in close elections -- like Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd who are running for the U.S. Senate -- that kind of engagement matters. Voters 44 and younger favor Beasley by a 7-point spread. But if they don’t become more motivated to head to the polls, that margin may not mean as much.

Similarly, other voters favor Budd by a 7-point spread. If those older voters are more motivated, it gives Budd a boost.

Overall, among “likely voters,” the election is dead even. But among those who say they’ll definitely vote, Budd leads Beasley by 4 points.

“It’s fair to say that the advantage is his (Budd’s) at this point,” Miringoff said.

“We looked at some of the voters who are not necessarily ‘chewing at the bit’ here,” he said of the poll’s findings. “A lot of young people are not in the mix as much as their numbers would otherwise suggest.”

It is a voter enthusiasm gap Democrats need to close if they’re to be competitive.

“When you look at younger voters, Democrats carry Gen-Z and Millennials by 12 points – it’s their best group,” Miringoff said. “But it’s also a group that, although 40% of the adult population, it’s 38% of the registered voters and it falls off to 31% among those who are definitely going to vote.”

As much as a challenge to Democrats, young voters are also where Democrats could find the basis for upsets in North Carolina.

In North Carolina, he said, it is not so much that any geographic region of the state appears to be giving Democrats or Republicans an edge, nor the rural-urban split.

As the close campaigns around North Carolina reach a conclusion, motivating voters – particularly young voters – may make the margin.

“It really has to do with the demographic characteristics,” Miringoff concluded. “People of color, gender and age – those seem to be driving whether people are turning out as much.”